ANKARA: Ismail Akin has voted for Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan鈥檚 party for almost 20 years, but the father of three said that will change on Sunday because the plunging economy has forced him to shut his shop and take on debt.
In a market in the Turkish capital last week, Akin clutched his jacket and said 鈥渆ven this is mortgaged鈥� after the economy tipped into recession following last year鈥檚 currency crisis.
鈥淲e voted for this man (Erdogan) for 20 years. Enough. Let鈥檚 hit him with the back of our hand so he sees what this nation is made of,鈥� Akin said.
He said he would vote for the main opposition candidate in Sunday鈥檚 local elections.
Polls suggest Erdogan could be defeated in Ankara, the city from which he has ruled Turkey with an increasingly iron grip since 2003. His AK Party (AKP) could hang on to power in a tight race in Istanbul, where he was once mayor, but a defeat in Ankara would be a blow.
鈥淭he psychological factor of losing the capital, losing one of the big cities in Turkey, could be perceived by voters as the beginning of the decline,鈥� said political analyst Murat Yetkin.
The nationwide local elections are the first since last year鈥檚 currency meltdown, and come as authorities fight a fresh wave of selling in the lira.
The currency has bounced back this week, in part because Turkey directed its banks to withhold lira liquidity in London, a key overseas market, until after Sunday鈥檚 election 鈥� blocking foreign investors from betting against the currency.
The stop-gap measure may save Erdogan the embarrassment of a currency meltdown on the eve of voting but economists say that longer-lasting reforms are needed to return to the strong growth which was a hallmark of the AKP鈥檚 early years in power.
AKP officials say they are anxious about Sunday鈥檚 vote. In recent weeks Erdogan has held up to five rallies per day and described the elections as a 鈥渕atter of survival.鈥�
Interviews in Ankara with more than 50 voters two weeks ahead of the vote suggested several long-time AKP supporters were shifting their views on the party and looking to punish Erdogan for the turmoil caused by the ailing economy.
鈥淭here is no production, nothing. They brought in the food stands, but will he (Erdogan) fix the economy with food stands?鈥� said Orhan Akkaya, a local business manager who said he would no longer back AKP.
鈥淭hey finished the country.鈥�

鈥榁ery serious problems鈥�
Ahead of the elections, the main opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP) formed an electoral alliance with the IYI (Good) Party to rival that of Erdogan鈥檚 AKP and the nationalist MHP.
Mansur Yavas, the opposition candidate, appears to hold a 2 percentage point lead over his AKP rival Mehmet Ozhaseki, according to polling company Gezici. However, a poll conducted by the AKP showed Ozhaseki had closed the gap and gained a 1.5 point advantage, a party source said.
Yavas was also the CHP鈥檚 candidate in 2014, but lost in a vote marred by claims of voter fraud. Ozhaseki, a former three-term mayor from central Anatolia, was a minister until he was removed from the post after last year鈥檚 presidential and general elections cemented Erdogan鈥檚 grip on power.
Speaking to Reuters on his campaign trail, Yavas said he believed he would win in Ankara because his rival had overlooked the economic struggles of the people.
鈥淭hey don鈥檛 see the economic hardships in Ankara,鈥� he said. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 come here and talk with shop owners.鈥�
While Erdogan, championed by more pious Turks, has become modern Turkey鈥檚 most popular leader, he is also the most divisive. Secular Turks say his policies quash dissent and infringe on private lives and personal rights.
But it was his unorthodox economic policies, including a buildup in foreign debt, that helped spark last year鈥檚 crisis that wiped some 30 percent off the value of the lira . The contraction in the fourth quarter was the economy鈥檚 worst in nearly a decade.
鈥淲hat we expected didn鈥檛 happen in the economy, that is a reality,鈥� an AKP official told Reuters. 鈥淲hile the economy was a gain before, it鈥檚 now our weak point.鈥�
鈥淚f there is a big loss (in Ankara)...we may enter a period where there will be very serious problems for the AK Party.鈥�

鈥楩ed up鈥�
Murat Gezici, chairman of pollster Gezici, said three of every four undecided voters have backed the MHP or AKP in past general or local elections.
The fraying economy had left many of them unsure, Gezici said citing his company鈥檚 March 16-17 poll, and added that rather than the AKP鈥檚 past successes, voters were more focused on candidates鈥� future promises.
鈥淢aybe I won鈥檛 even vote, that鈥檚 how fed up I am,鈥� said Huseyin Kilic, another longtime but disenchanted AKP voter.
Sacked from his factory job and waving in the air coins that he said were his last, Kilic, standing in a street market in the central Ankara district of Ulus, said he had not yet settled on a favored candidate.
Yet few are writing off Erdogan before votes are counted.
In nearly two decades he and his AKP have not lost a local election in Ankara or Istanbul. The party is leading polls in other big cities like Adana and Konya.
Shopping for vegetables in central Ankara, Neriman said she remained committed to the AK Party, dismissing economic woes.
鈥淭hey (the AKP) gave us everything, financially and emotionally. There are no economic troubles. Are there?鈥� she said. 鈥淚 am planning on voting for the AK Party because for years we鈥檝e been so much better off.鈥�