ANKARA: Rumors are swirling in Turkey about the possibility of former President Abdullah Gul being the opposition鈥檚 pick to challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2023 elections.

The two men founded the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) together in 2001. 

Gul was president between 2007 and 2014 when Erdogan was prime minister. But Gul has become a staunch critic of his former ally in the last few years.

In an interview on Aug. 17, the leader of the opposition Republican People鈥檚 Party (CHP) Kemal Kilicdaroglu said the government was 鈥渧ery scared鈥� about a Gul candidacy.

But Gul has been criticized by some secular sections of society for remaining silent while power became increasingly centralized over the years without any effective checks and balances in place.

He is also known to be steering the newly founded breakaway Democracy and Progress Party, which was founded by the country鈥檚 former economy czar Ali Babacan.

Kilicdaroglu denied claims he was talking with Gul each week.

鈥淭hose who make accusations about 鈥榳eekly meetings鈥� are under some others鈥� control and they are psychologically troubled individuals,鈥� he said.

Gul is keeping quiet about a potential presidential comeback, although many think Turkey needs a better challenger.

Karol Wasilewski, an analyst at the Warsaw-based Polish Institute of International Affairs, viewed the CHP鈥檚 possible nomination of Gul as a reflection of the changes the party had undergone under Kilicdaroglu, who decided that the CHP should be more open to conservative values in order to better compete with the AKP. But he thought it was a bad idea to have Gul take on Erdogan for several reasons.  

鈥淔irst of all if they want to have a candidate acceptable to some AKP voters and able to compete with Erdogan, Ankara鈥檚 opposition mayor Mansur Yavas and Istanbul鈥檚 opposition mayor Ekrem Imamoglu seem to be far better choices, because of Gul鈥檚 image as a political impotent due to his constant inability to stand up to Erdogan,鈥� Wasilewski told Arab News. 

鈥淕ul is not a political fighter able to defeat Erdogan contrary to, for example, the much younger and vigorous Imamoglu.鈥�

According to Wasilewski, Gul鈥檚 nomination would discourage lots of CHP sympathizers from voting and this scenario would directly help Erdogan鈥檚 chances of winning.

鈥淟ately there has been lots of criticism toward the AKP that it does not understand the younger generation which will most probably be decisive in 2023 elections. The nomination of Gul will show us that the CHP also has no clue as to how to approach younger voters as I can鈥檛 imagine Abdullah Gul would be able to attract Generation Z voters,鈥� he added.

Berk Esen, a political analyst from Bilkent University in Ankara, said although some people portrayed Gul as a compromise candidate who could attract some AKP voters to defeat Erdogan, there was little proof that Gul actually resonated with the AKP base, which had been bombarded with anti-Gul discourse by pro-government media for years.

鈥淥pposition voters also do not trust him due to his complicity in many of the AKP government鈥檚 measures as well as conspicuous silence since he stepped down from the presidency in 2014,鈥� he told Arab News.

According to Esen, a Gul candidacy did not stand much of a chance and would almost certainly generate a challenge from the CHP camp.

Turkey鈥檚 political landscape changed dramatically after the opposition鈥檚 victory in last year鈥檚 local elections.

Esen remarked that the opposition had younger, more competent and credible candidates so it was difficult to contemplate a scenario in which Gul could energize the opposition voters, let alone draw votes from the AKP base.

鈥淭his debate around names is not a productive one but may push many in the opposition to contemplate the candidate nomination process. The CHP leadership may be pushed to allow open primaries to choose its candidate,鈥� he added.

Dimitar Bechev, a nonresident fellow at Atlantic Council, said that nominating Gul would be a smart move but only if the opposition rallied behind him.

鈥淟ots of secularists have hard feelings against him as Erdogan鈥檚 enabler,鈥� he told Arab News. 鈥淗e didn鈥檛 step up against Erdogan during the anti-government Gezi protests either in 2013.鈥�

Gul was mostly in favor of dialogue with the protesters and listening to their demands. Bechev said that if the opposition vote consolidated to back him, and some AKP supporters defected, then there would be a runoff.