South Korea鈥檚 Yoon Suk-yeol faces early test as it braces for Pyongyang nuclear test

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol takes an oath during his inauguration in Seoul on May 10, 2022. (AP)
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  • Analysts say such a test, the North鈥檚 first in five years, would be a reality check for Yoon Suk-yeol鈥檚 plans to incentivize denuclearization with 鈥榓udacious鈥� economic benefits

SEOUL: South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol鈥檚 plans to offer economic aid in return for denuclearization could face an early challenge amid signs of an imminent North Korean nuclear test 鈥� and such proposals have been rebuffed before, analysts say.
Yoon has warned of a 鈥渢ense鈥� security environment, citing the possible nuclear test, which US and South Korean officials have said could occur as early as this month after Pyongyang broke a 2017 moratorium on long-range missile testing in March.
Analysts say such a test, the North鈥檚 first in five years, would be a reality check for Yoon鈥檚 plans to incentivize denuclearization with 鈥渁udacious鈥� economic benefits, unveiled in his inauguration speech on Tuesday.
Yoon and his team have given few details on how they would bring back Pyongyang to the negotiating table. But some analysts said North Korea is unlikely to accept any aid-for-denuclearization deal, as its nuclear and missile programs are mature and still advancing.
鈥淚t was a somewhat conciliatory message, but North Korea would never accept this line of reasoning that the South would help develop its own economy if it denuclearizes,鈥� said Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. 鈥淭o them, that formula means to deny their regime.鈥�
Pyongyang has said several times in the past decade that it would not abandon its nuclear programs in exchange for economic rewards, Park added.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, noted a similar offer by former conservative President Lee Myung-bak.
Lee, under his 鈥淰ision 3000鈥� initiative, had promised economic assistance to help the North achieve a $3,000 per capita income within 10 years if it abandoned its nuclear and missile programs and opened up to the outside world.
Pyongyang called it a plot to overthrow its regime, and inter-Korean ties remained icy throughout Lee鈥檚 five years. Many of Yoon鈥檚 senior aides, including his national security adviser and his deputy, served in the Lee administration.
鈥淭he new government鈥檚 offer could induce backlash from the North,鈥� Yang said. 鈥淗e does leave open the door for dialogue but did not actually propose talks, and the idea would have slim chances of succeeding as it鈥檚 passive and unrealistic.鈥�
Yoon on Wednesday nominated Kim Kyou-hyun, a former veteran diplomat with expertise in North Korea and US relations, to be director of the National Intelligence Service, overseeing oversee inter-Korean affairs and denuclearization talks.
Yoon鈥檚 new defense minister, Lee Jong-sup, held his first meeting online with key commanding officers after taking office on Tuesday, calling for airtight readiness posture against 鈥渙mnidirectional security threats.鈥�
鈥淭he security situation on the Korean peninsula is extremely grave due to North Korea鈥檚 advancing missile threats and possibility of a nuclear test,鈥� he told the meeting.
Lee ordered the military to respond 鈥渟ternly and immediately鈥� if the North presses ahead with a 鈥渄irect provocation,鈥� the ministry said in a statement.