https://arab.news/5c32f
- The polls are considered the country鈥檚 most significant in years, as the president faces an opposition bloc that is more strongly united in challenging his two-decade rule.
ANKARA: Presidential and parliamentary elections will be held in Turkiye on May 14, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Friday. A second presidential vote will take place on May 28 if a runoff is required.
These elections are considered the country鈥檚 most significant in many years, as the opposition bloc is united for the first time as it challenges Erdogan鈥檚 two-decade rule.
The opposition鈥檚 presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is leader of the second-biggest party in the parliament, the center-left Republican People鈥檚 Party, or CHP. He has the backing of the six parties that form the opposition alliance.
The election campaigns are expected to evolve around the country鈥檚 ongoing economic crisis and allegations of mismanagement in the response to the devastating earthquakes that hit 11 provinces last month, killing more than 46,000 people and leaving hundreds of thousands homeless.
Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara office director of think tank the German Marshall Fund of the United States, said that any move to postpone the elections would be contrary to Erdogan鈥檚 strategy and it is therefore expected the elections will go ahead on May 14, regardless of rumors to the contrary.
鈥淔irstly, the Turkish economy is a ticking time bomb and unless the current monetary policy is abandoned, a currency crisis is a matter of time,鈥� he told Arab News. 鈥淲hile such a crisis can probably be avoided until May, the risk will increase over time.
鈥淪econdly, while Erdogan has significantly raised the minimum wage and civil servants鈥� salaries, these raises are eroding over time. Thirdly, the recent earthquake will cause additional problems for the economy in the long run.鈥�
Therefore, Unluhisarcikli said, time is not on the ruling government鈥檚 side and it is in Erdogan鈥檚 best interest to hold the election before these negative factors kick in.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples鈥� Democratic Party, also known as the HDP, remains the potential kingmaker in the election, as it has not joined either of the two main alliances. It has declared its willingness to negotiate with Kilicdaroglu.
Recent research by Yoneylem, a Turkish polling firm, suggested that the chance of an opposition victory in the presidential election in the first ballot would increase if the HDP supports Kilicdaroglu.
Ilke Toygur, a professor at University Carlos III of Madrid and a senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies鈥� Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program, believes Erdogan鈥檚 calculations about the election are based on two main factors: Preventing the opposition from consolidating, and assuming the economy will deteriorate further.
鈥淭he voters are already deeply impacted by high inflation and a cost-of-living crisis 鈥� and things just get worse,鈥� she told Arab News.
The election race will not be easy for the opposition, either, according to Toygur.
鈥淭hey have just announced their candidate after days of existential drama,鈥� she said. 鈥淏oth the media and the state resources are used against them. There are open law cases against some, which could be instrumentalized any minute.
鈥淚t is a very unfair competition. The situation after the earthquake opens up many questions about voter registration and participation.鈥�