LONDON: Israel has miscalculated the costs of a potential new war with Hezbollah, a former US military intelligence analyst warned on Tuesday, noting that it could result in significant civilian casualties in both Lebanon and Israel.

Harrison Mann, a major in the Defense Intelligence Agency and the highest-ranking US military officer to resign over the Gaza conflict, expressed his concerns in an interview with The Guardian.

Mann underscored the high risk of Israel engaging in a war on its northern border for internal political reasons, primarily driven by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu鈥檚 hold on power and his insulation from corruption charges are seen as reliant on maintaining a state of war.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 know how realistic their assessments are of the destruction that Israel would incur, and I鈥檓 pretty sure they don鈥檛 have a realistic idea of how successful they would be against Hezbollah,鈥� the former army officer and intelligence analyst said.

He said that the Israeli military was aware it could not decisively strike Hezbollah鈥檚 extensive arsenal, which is entrenched in the Lebanese mountains.

Instead, Mann suggested the IDF would target Hezbollah leaders and Shia residential areas to demoralize the group鈥檚 support base, a tactic referred to as the Dahiya doctrine, after the Beirut district was heavily bombed in the 2006 war.

鈥淚t鈥檚 not like an actual written doctrine, but I think we can be very comfortable assessing that bombing civilian centers as a way to compel the enemy is clearly an accepted and shared belief in the IDF and Israeli leadership. We鈥檝e just seen them do it in Gaza for the past nine months,鈥� Mann said, but he said that such a plan would backfire.

Mann told the Guardian that he expected Hezbollah would respond to any existential threat with a massive rocket and missile assault.

鈥淭hey probably have the ability to at least partially overwhelm Israel鈥檚 air defenses, strike civilian infrastructure around the country, and inflict a level of destruction on Israel that I鈥檓 not sure Israel has really ever experienced in its history 鈥� certainly not in its recent history,鈥� Mann said.

With Hezbollah鈥檚 arsenal seemingly out of reach from air strikes, Mann suggested that the IDF would initiate a ground offensive into southern Lebanon, which would come at a high cost in Israeli casualties.

He warned that sustained shelling of Israeli cities could compel the administration of US President Joe Biden, especially during an election period, to accede to Netanyahu鈥檚 calls for greater US involvement.

鈥淥ur least escalatory participation will be possibly striking supply lines or associated targets in Iraq and Syria to help cut off lines of communication and armaments flowing to Hezbollah,鈥� Mann said. 鈥淏ut that on its own is risky, because if we start doing that, some of the people that we hit could be Hezbollah, but they could be IRGC (Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps).鈥�

While Mann believes the Biden administration would aim to avoid direct conflict with Iran, he acknowledged that the risk of such an escalation remained.

鈥淲e know specifically that the Israeli prime minister must continue to be a wartime leader if he wants to prolong his political career and stay out of court, so that motivation is there,鈥� Mann said, adding that any Israeli government would also be pressured by the displacement of tens of thousands of Israelis due to Hezbollah attacks.

Mann also pointed out the Israeli military establishment鈥檚 belief that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah must be confronted as it continues to grow in strength.

Mann鈥檚 resignation, submitted in November and effective from June, was accompanied by a public letter on LinkedIn in May. In the letter, he condemned US support for Israel鈥檚 actions in Gaza, stating it had 鈥渆nabled and empowered the killing and starvation of tens of thousands of innocent Palestinians.鈥�

As a descendant of European Jews, Mann wrote: 鈥淚 was raised in a particularly unforgiving moral environment when it came to the topic of bearing responsibility for ethnic cleansing.鈥�

He said that his resignation was met with a largely positive response from former colleagues, with many expressing similar sentiments.

鈥淎 lot of people I worked with reached out to me, a lot of people I didn鈥檛 work with as well, and expressed that they felt the same way,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 not just a generational thing. There鈥檚 quite senior people who feel the same way.鈥�