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- The group鈥檚 Shoura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh鈥檚 funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor
- Hani Al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal and Khalil Al-Hayya
BEIRUT: The militant Palestinian group Hamas has a history of swift and smooth replacement of fallen leaders killed in Israeli airstrikes.
Ismail Haniyeh鈥檚 assassination in the Iranian capital early Wednesday comes at a time when Hamas is under extreme pressure since the war in Gaza started nearly 10 months ago following the group鈥檚 attack on southern Israel.
鈥淲e are not discussing this matter now,鈥� a Hamas official told The Associated Press, on condition of anonymity in line with regulations, when asked about the process to replace Haniyeh.
Haniyeh headed the group鈥檚 political bureau until his death. His deputy was Saleh Arouri, who was killed in an Israeli strike in Beirut in January and would have been the automatic replacement. Arouri鈥檚 post remained empty since his death.
The group鈥檚 Shoura council, the main consultative body, is now expected to meet soon, likely after Haniyeh鈥檚 funeral in Qatar, to name a new successor. The council鈥檚 membership is kept secret but represents regional chapters of the group, in Gaza, the West Bank and diaspora and those imprisoned.
One of Haniyeh鈥檚 deputies was Zaher Jabarin, who has been described as the group鈥檚 chief executive officer because of the important role he plays in managing the group鈥檚 finances, and with that, his good offices with Iran.
Hani Al-Masri, an expert on Palestinian organizations, said the choice is now likely between Khaled Mashaal, a veteran Hamas official and former leader, and Khalil Al-Hayya, a powerful figure within Hamas who was close to Haniyeh.
鈥淚t will not be easy,鈥� said Al-Masri, who also heads the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research and Strategic Studies.
Hamas鈥� new political leader will have to decide on whether to continue the military option, and become essentially a guerrilla and underground group, or choose a leader that can offer political compromises 鈥� an unlikely option at this stage.
Mashaal has political and diplomatic experience, but his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have soured over his support for Arab protests in 2011. When he was in Lebanon in 2021, Hezbollah leaders reportedly refused to meet with him. But Mashaal has good relations with Turkiye and Qatar and is considered a more moderate figure who headed the group until 2017. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas called him on Saturday to offer his condolences for the killing of Haniyeh.
Yahya Sinwar, the powerful Hamas figu re leading the war in Gaza, is at the opposite end of that spectrum and is unlikely to support Mashaal鈥檚 leadership.
Al-Hayya is considered close to Haniyeh, a prominent leader living in exile and originally from Gaza, with important international connections and good relations with the military wing as well as with Iran and T眉rkiye.
After years of cold relations with the Iran-led 鈥渁xis of resistance鈥� over Hamas鈥檚 backing the opposition against Syrian President Bashar Assad during Syria鈥檚 conflict that began in March 2011, Hamas began mending its relations with Iran and reconciled with Assad.
Al-Hayya headed a delegation that went to Syria in 2022 and met Assad. Al-Hayya also has good relations with Iran, T眉rkiye and Hezbollah.
鈥淗e is like Haniyeh, who was balanced and flexible and both sides didn鈥檛 see his leadership as problematic,鈥� Al-Masri said.
The role of the group鈥檚 leader is important in maintaining relations with Hamas鈥� allies outside the Palestinian territories and the choice is likely to be influenced by the group鈥檚 choices in the coming days.
Al-Masri said any choice will have to be temporary until elections in the political bureau which were supposed to take place this year but have been derailed by the war.
The Hamas leadership meeting may also be complicated by efforts to reach Sinwar, who remains influential and will be consulted on the choice.
With ceasefire talks faltering, Israel鈥檚 strategy so far appeared to have left the group with a few options now: surrender or continue war.
A third possible contender, said Al-Masri, is Nizar Abu Ramadan, who had challenged Sinwar for the role of Gaza chief, and is considered close to Mashaal.
The war in Gaza started on Oct.7 after the Hamas attack that killed some 1,200 people. The group also took 250 others hostage. Israel鈥檚 retaliatory operation has obliterated entire neighborhoods in Gaza and forced some 80 percent of the population to flee their homes. Over 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza鈥檚 Health Ministry which doesn鈥檛 distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.