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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at ahospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”


Blazing heat in Iraq as Baghdad, south top 50C

Updated 6 sec ago

Blazing heat in Iraq as Baghdad, south top 50C

Blazing heat in Iraq as Baghdad, south top 50C
BAGHDAD: Iraqis grappled on Monday with searing heat in the capital Baghdad and parts of the country’s south, where the weather service said temperatures reached 51C in the shade.
Iraq’s 46 million people face rising temperatures, chronic water shortages and year-on-year droughts, in a country intensely impacted by the effects of climate change.
Summer temperatures often climb to 52C, especially in July and August.
On central Baghdad’s bustling streets on Monday, people sought respite from the sweltering heat in front of swirling mist fans set up near restaurants and shops.
Some pedestrians drenched their faces with cold water purchased from sidewalk vendors, while drivers had to pull over to the roadside to cool down their engines.
The national weather service said the temperature reached 51C in Baghdad and in areas to the capital’s southeast, from the central Wasit province to Dhi Qar, Missan and Basra in the south.
Another eight provinces hit 50C on Monday, with temperatures expected to drop slightly on Wednesday, according to the official Iraq News Agency.
In recent years, Iraqis rallied every summer to protest regular power cuts and water shortages that plague their daily lives.
Hundreds of people protested on Friday and Sunday near the cities of Hilla and Diwaniyah, south of Baghdad, blocking roads and burning tires.
Iraq’s water resources ministry has said that “this year is one of the driest since 1933,” and that water reserve are down to only eight percent of their full capacity.
Authorities blame reduced river flows in part on upstream dams built in neighboring Iran and Turkiye, which Iraq says have dramatically shrunk the once-mighty Tigris and Euphrates whose waters have been crucial for irrigation for millennia.
Temperatures have risen significantly elsewhere in the region, with neighboring Turkiye registering on Saturday 50.5C in its southeast, a nationwide record.
Last week, a severe heatwave in Iran disrupted water and electricity supplies in much of the country.

Israeli strikes kill at least 34 people in Gaza, officials say, as some aid restrictions are eased

Israeli strikes kill at least 34 people in Gaza, officials say, as some aid restrictions are eased
Updated 2 min 9 sec ago

Israeli strikes kill at least 34 people in Gaza, officials say, as some aid restrictions are eased

Israeli strikes kill at least 34 people in Gaza, officials say, as some aid restrictions are eased
  • Israel said it would continue military operations alongside the new humanitarian measures
  • Israel has restricted aid to varying degrees throughout the war

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Israeli strikes killed at least 34 Palestinians in multiple locations across Gaza on Monday, local health officials said, a day after Israel eased aid restrictions in the face of a worsening humanitarian crisis in the territory.

Israel announced Sunday that the military would pause operations in Gaza City, Deir Al-Balah and Muwasi for 10 hours a day until further notice to allow for the improved flow of aid to Palestinians in Gaza, where concern over hunger has grown, and designate secure routes for aid delivery.

Israel said it would continue military operations alongside the new humanitarian measures. The Israeli military had no immediate comment about the latest strikes, which occurred outside the time frame for the pause Israel declared would be held between 10 a.m. and 8 p.m.

Aid agencies have welcomed the new aid measures, which also included allowing airdrops into Gaza, but said they were not enough to counter the rising hunger in the Palestinian territory.

Images of emaciated children have sparked outrage around the world, including from Israel’s close allies. US President Donald Trump on Sunday called the images of emaciated and malnourished children in Gaza “terrible.”

Israel has restricted aid to varying degrees throughout the war. In March, it cut off the entry of all goods, including fuel, food and medicine to pressure Hamas to free hostages.

Israel partially lifted those restrictions in May but also pushed ahead on a new US-backed aid delivery system that has been wracked by chaos and violence. Traditional aid providers also have encountered a similar breakdown in law and order surrounding their aid deliveries.

Most of Gaza’s population now relies on aid. Accessing food has become a challenge that some Palestinians have risked their lives for.

The Awda hospital in central Gaza said it received the bodies of seven Palestinians who it said were killed Monday by Israeli fire close to an aid distribution site run by the US- and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. The hospital said 20 others were wounded close to the site.

Elsewhere, a woman who was seven months pregnant was killed along with 11 others after their house was struck in the Muwasi area, west of the southern city of Khan Younis. The woman’s fetus survived after a complex surgery, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

One strike hit a two-story house in the western Japanese neighborhood of Khan Younis, killing at least 11 people, more than half of them women and children, said the Nasser Hospital, which received the casualties.

The Israeli military and GHF did not immediately respond to a request for comment on those strikes.

In its Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Hamas killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. It still holds 50, more than half Israel believes to be dead.

Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed more than 59,800 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Its count doesn’t distinguish between militants and civilians, but the ministry says over half of the dead are women and children. The ministry operates under the Hamas government. The UN and other international organizations see it as the most reliable source of data on casualties.


Israeli settlers attack West Bank Christian village: PA

Israeli settlers attack West Bank Christian village: PA
Updated 27 min 22 sec ago

Israeli settlers attack West Bank Christian village: PA

Israeli settlers attack West Bank Christian village: PA
  • Israeli settlers attacked the Christian Palestinian village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank, torching cars and spray-painting threatening graffiti, the Palestinian Authority said Monday

JERUSALEM: Israeli settlers attacked the Christian Palestinian village of Taybeh in the occupied West Bank, torching cars and spray-painting threatening graffiti, the Palestinian Authority said Monday.
“Israeli colonial settlers launched a terror attack tonight on the Christian Palestinian village of Taybeh (Ramallah), setting fire to Palestinian vehicles and spray-painting racist threats in Hebrew on homes and property,” the Ramallah-based authority wrote on X.
A Taybeh resident, speaking anonymously for safety reasons, told AFP the attack occurred at about 2:00 am (2300 GMT), with at least two vehicles burned.
They said one vehicle belonged to a journalist, while noting the damage appeared to target Palestinian property broadly.
A photo shared by a Palestinian government agency on X showed graffiti on a Taybeh wall that read: “Al-Mughayyir, you will regret,” referring to a nearby village that was also attacked by settlers earlier this year.
The Palestinian Authority’s foreign ministry condemned the attack, calling it “settler terrorism.”
Germany’s ambassador to Israel, Steffen Seibert, also condemned it, writing on X: “These extremist settlers may claim that God gave them the land. But they are nothing but criminals abhorrent to any faith.”
Taybeh and its surroundings have experienced several bouts of settler violence in recent months, including an arson attack at an ancient Byzantine church.
The village — home to about 1,300 mostly Christian Palestinians, many holding US dual citizenship — is known for its brewery, the oldest in the Palestinian territories.
Settlers have attacked neighboring communities in recent months, resulting in three deaths, damage to Palestinian water wells and the displacement of at least one rural herding community.
Israel has occupied the West Bank since 1967. The territory is home to about three million Palestinians and around 700,000 Israeli settlers, including about 200,000 in east Jerusalem.
Last week, 71 members of Israel’s 120-seat parliament, or Knesset, passed a motion calling on the government to annex the West Bank.


IAEA will visit Iran in next two weeks, Iranian foreign ministry says

IAEA will visit Iran in next two weeks, Iranian foreign ministry says
Updated 28 July 2025

IAEA will visit Iran in next two weeks, Iranian foreign ministry says

IAEA will visit Iran in next two weeks, Iranian foreign ministry says
  • A manual regarding the future of Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will be presented, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said

DUBAI: The United Nations nuclear watchdog will make a visit to Iran within the next two weeks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday, a few days after the watchdog’s director said Tehran is ready to restart technical conversations.
Baghaei added that a manual regarding the future of Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will be presented, based on a recent parliamentary bill restricting such cooperation.


Israel says Gaza got 120 trucks of aid on day one of pause

Israel says Gaza got 120 trucks of aid on day one of pause
Updated 28 July 2025

Israel says Gaza got 120 trucks of aid on day one of pause

Israel says Gaza got 120 trucks of aid on day one of pause
  • Israel said Monday that more than 120 truckloads of food aid were distributed by the UN and aid agencies in the Gaza Strip on the first day of a partial pause in fighting

JERUSALEM: Israel said Monday that more than 120 truckloads of food aid were distributed by the UN and aid agencies in the Gaza Strip on the first day of a partial pause in fighting.
On Sunday, Israel declared a “tactical” pause in military operations in part of Gaza and promised to open secure routes for aid, urging humanitarian groups to step up food distribution.
“Over 120 trucks were collected and distributed yesterday by the UN and international organizations,” COGAT, an Israeli defense ministry agency overseeing civilian affairs in the Palestinian territories, said in a post on X on Monday.