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KARACHI: This week’s White House visit by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir marks a dramatic revival of engagement with Washington but is unlikely to evolve into a deep strategic alliance, analysts said, as both sides navigate a relationship still rooted in transactional interests.

The joint appearance before President Donald Trump was widely seen as symbolizing a new phase in bilateral ties and underscoring Islamabad’s renewed relevance to Washington’s evolving security and geopolitical priorities. But experts said the future of the relationship will depend on whether exploratory talks translate into tangible cooperation on trade, counterterrorism, and Middle East diplomacy.

Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, described the visit as “significant” for several reasons, including the fact that it was the first time a Pakistani prime minister had been invited to the White House since Imran Khan’s trip in 2019.

Khan was never invited during President Biden’s four years in office despite repeated overtures, making the invitation from Trump to Sharif and Munir politically significant in Islamabad. More than just a sideline conversation in New York, Kugelman said, the formal invitation to Washington “gives the meeting a certain level of prominence and prestige.”

The symbolism of Sharif and Munir appearing together was not lost on observers. 

Kugelman noted that while a prime minister and army chief had previously visited Washington together, this time Munir’s role was far more prominent. 

That visibility, he said, “conveys a strong sense of civil military solidarity,” a rare alignment in a country where tensions between civilian and military leaders are frequent. 

Pakistan’s military has long been the country’s most powerful institution, often shaping foreign policy and security decisions even under elected governments. In light of this, some observers, Kugelman added, may see the joint appearance as “a major blow to democracy” given “the power of an unelected leader” in foreign policy decisions.

Pakistan’s former special representative on Afghanistan, Asif Durrani, dismissed concerns about civil-military imbalance, saying both leaders were representing the state, not individual offices. 

“When you go abroad, you talk about the state of Pakistan,” he said. “Both would have been expressing the views which Pakistan has.”

Beyond optics, analysts said the discussions were likely dominated by strategic and economic issues, including US access to Pakistan’s critical minerals and other commercial opportunities. 

Kugelman described the recent flurry of engagements as “focused on aspirational and exploratory forms of cooperation,” with “very little substantive cooperation” so far beyond counterterrorism. 

He cautioned that the relationship remains “transactional in nature,” raising questions about “who wants what and who’s getting what.” 

US–Pakistan ties have historically been shaped by specific security or counterterrorism goals, from Cold War cooperation to the post-9/11 alliance, rather than broader strategic alignment.

Counterterrorism was almost certainly a major topic, he added, with Pakistan “confronting a very significant terrorist threat” from militants on its western border and likely urging US support against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a banned Pakistani Taliban group responsible for dozens of deadly attacks in recent years and operating largely from safe havens in neighboring Afghanistan. 

Washington, Kugelman said, will expect Islamabad to continue helping monitor and track groups like the regional affiliate of Daesh active in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Durrani said Pakistan’s priorities included “robust trade ties and, of course, cooperation in counter-terrorism, including terrorism emanating from Afghanistan.”

The two sides also likely discussed Pakistan’s potential role as a diplomatic go-between in the Middle East. 

Kugelman said Washington “may want Pakistan to serve the role of a messenger” to interlocutors like Iran, where US access is limited. But differences over Israel’s war in Gaza and Pakistan’s refusal to recognize the state would “impose limits” on how far cooperation could go. 

Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza, launched in October 2023, has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and provoked widespread condemnation across the Muslim world.

Durrani reaffirmed Islamabad’s stance, saying Pakistan “condemned the Israeli atrocities” and remains “part of the consensus … which calls for two states with Jerusalem as its capital of Palestine.”

RECALIBRATION

Despite Trump’s more confrontational approach toward India — including higher tariffs and public criticism over Russian oil purchases — Durrani said Washington’s decades-old strategic partnership with New Delhi remains intact. 

New Delhi has sharply increased imports of discounted Russian crude since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, straining ties with Washington and prompting Trump to raise tariffs on Indian goods. 

“It’s more than two decades that they have forged a strategic tie,” Durrani said. “It’s not going to go away with the arrival of Trump.”

He also added that Pakistan’s “deep-rooted” relationship with China was not affected by renewed engagement with Washington.

America is not a strategic partner in the same way, he said.

China is Pakistan’s largest trading partner and main infrastructure investor, anchoring its Belt and Road Initiative projects in the region.

The White House meeting also has domestic implications.

Veteran journalist Mazhar Abbas said the visit has strengthened the government’s position at home. 

“President Trump’s warm reception of both the Prime Minister and the army chief send a strong message of US support for the current administration,” he said. 

Modi’s absence from Washington, he added, “has further worked in the government’s favor.” Yet he warned that worsening violence in Gaza could “strengthen the opposition’s narrative” against the government.

Kugelman urged Islamabad to temper its expectations, warning that Trump is “very mercurial” and prone to “U-turns.” 

Renewed warmth could evaporate quickly, he said, particularly if Washington’s ties with India rebound or if US interest in Pakistan’s mineral or energy sectors wanes.

 “We’re looking at a revitalized relationship,” Kugelman said, “but not a new strategic partnership.”

Durrani said Pakistan “should be ready to deal with new realities with open eyes” while taking advantage of the current “bonhomie.”

In May 2025, Pakistan and India exchanged artillery, missile and drone strikes during a four-day conflict that killed dozens before a US-brokered ceasefire halted hostilities in a key moment in which Trump positioned himself as a mediator in South Asia’s most volatile rivalry. 

That episode and Washington’s recent outreach underscore how shifting geopolitical dynamics are shaping the recalibration of US–Pakistan relations, even as both sides remain cautious about how far this new engagement can go.

Dr. Asfandyar Mir, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said Trump’s current posture reflects that shift. “

Unlike previous administrations during the war on terror era, I don’t see him placing heavy expectations or demanding specific commitments from Pakistan,” he said. 

“He likely wants Pakistan to be supportive on Middle East issues as they unfold, because that’s a priority for him. This kind of presidential attention and engagement will likely translate into improvements in functional cooperation across commercial, economic, and security domains.”