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Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

Analysis Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?
Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors, which could impact the vote’s outcome. (AFP)
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Updated 09 January 2025

Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?

Will Lebanon fill the presidential power vacuum or slide into further uncertainty?
  • Contenders for the presidency carry the baggage of past conflicts, failures in office, and problematic allegiances
  • Weakening of Hezbollah and the ouster of Syria’s Assad are likely to influence power dynamics in the Lebanese parliament

DUBAI: Wracked by economic crisis and the recent conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia, Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis and elect a new president.

There are many contenders for the coveted role, but whoever is chosen by members of the Lebanese Parliament to form the next government will have important implications for the nation’s recovery and trajectory.

If Thursday’s election is successful, it could end the debilitating power vacuum that has prevailed since Michel Aoun’s presidential term ended in October 2022, leaving governance in Lebanon in limbo.

Settling on a candidate is now more urgent than ever, as Lebanon faces mounting pressure to stabilize its political and economic landscape ahead of the impending expiration of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah.

None of Lebanon’s major parliamentary blocs have officially announced a presidential candidate, but several potential contenders have emerged.




Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces will require delicate maneuvering. (AFP)

One possible candidate is General Joseph Aoun, commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces, who local media have tipped as the most likely winner.

Widely regarded as politically neutral, Aoun’s military experience and perceived impartiality could bring stability and credibility, both domestically and internationally.

His success would hinge on building a capable Cabinet with a comprehensive plan to stabilize the country’s governance, economic recovery and security, as well as lead postwar reconstruction efforts and the return of those displaced.

Balancing the demilitarization of Hezbollah and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern territories in accordance with the UN Resolution 1701 would also require delicate maneuvering.

However, his candidacy faces legal hurdles due to a constitutional requirement that two years must pass between his military role and the presidency.

Another potential contender is Samir Geagea, head of the Lebanese Forces. As a vocal Hezbollah critic with significant support among some Christian communities, Geagea could appeal to anti-Hezbollah factions.

His extensive political experience and advocacy for reform could help him to prioritize state-building, which many Lebanese see as crucial for the country’s future. His anti-Hezbollah stance could also restructure Lebanon’s stance in regional conflicts and international relations.

However, his polarizing history from Lebanon’s civil war could prove to be a barrier to national unity, raising fears that his candidacy could deepen divisions in Lebanon’s already fragmented political system.

Suleiman Frangieh, head of the pro-Hezbollah Marada movement, is another possibility, but risks alienating Christian communities and international allies.

Hailing from a prominent political dynasty, Frangieh is the grandson of a former president and has himself held various governmental and parliamentary roles. However, being a close ally of Hezbollah and the former Assad regime in Syria makes him a polarizing figure.

Finally, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and International Monetary Fund official, represents a technocratic option with broad political appeal.




Lebanon faces a historic opportunity this week to break its political paralysis. (AFP)

He enjoys support from key factions, including the Lebanese Forces, the Progressive Socialist Party led by Walid Jumblatt, several Sunni MPs, influential Maronite religious figures and opposition groups.

Azour’s economic expertise could help to address Lebanon’s financial crisis, but some among the opposition view him as a continuation of past administrations.

Securing the presidency in Lebanon requires broad-based political consensus — a challenge in its deeply divided Parliament. Any major faction can block a nomination that does not align with its agenda.

Under Lebanon’s constitution, presidential elections require a two-thirds majority in the first round of parliamentary voting (86 out of 128 members) and a simple majority of 65 votes in subsequent rounds.

The Lebanese president’s powers, as defined by the constitution, reflect a blend of ceremonial and executive functions within a confessional system of governance that allocates political roles based on religious representation.

The president’s powers are limited by those of the prime minister, the council of ministers and Parliament, reflecting Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system established by the 1943 National Pact and reaffirmed by the 1989 Taif Agreement.

Lebanese presidents are traditionally drawn from the Maronite Christian community, as stipulated by the confessional system. This role is critical in maintaining the delicate political balance in the country.

Thursday’s election comes at a turbulent moment for Lebanon and its neighbors, which could impact the vote’s outcome.




A UNIFIL military vehicle conducts a patrol in the southern Lebanese village of Borj El Mlouk. (AFP)

Hezbollah has long dominated Lebanon’s political landscape, parliamentary dynamics and government composition. However, its devastating war with Israel, which began in October 2023 and ended with a fragile ceasefire in November 2024, gutted its leadership and depleted much of its public support.

Hezbollah’s failure to deter Israel’s war in Gaza or mount a sufficient defense against Israeli air and ground attacks in southern and eastern Lebanon has raised doubts about its remaining political influence in steering the selection of a presidential candidate.

The election also follows the sudden downfall of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria, toppled by armed opposition groups after a 13-year civil war. This shift has profoundly impacted Syria’s relationship with Hezbollah and other factions in Lebanon.

Syria’s influence on Lebanon historically included backing Maronite militias, interfering in political decisions, maintaining a 29-year military occupation and facilitating the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah.




A destroyed mosque in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam. (AFP)

The change of power in Damascus adds uncertainty to Lebanon’s already fragile situation.

Regardless of these regional shifts, Lebanon’s next president will face the daunting task of guiding the country out of its economic mire while leading postwar reconstruction efforts.

Lebanon’s economic situation remains dire, with its financial collapse in 2019 described by the World Bank as one of the worst in modern history.

The Lebanese pound has lost more than 98 percent of its value against the US dollar on the black market, leading to hyperinflation and eroding the purchasing power of citizens.

Public services, including electricity, health care and water supply, have nearly collapsed, and unemployment has soared. More than 80 percent of the population now lives below the poverty line, according to the UN.

Efforts to secure international aid, including talks with the IMF, have stalled due to political gridlock and resistance to reforms. The new president will need regional and international standing to rally support for Lebanon’s recovery.

Whoever secures the presidency will face a formidable task in addressing Lebanon’s economic, political and social challenges. The alternative is continued paralysis, with devastating consequences for the country’s future.


Security Council to meet on Gaza hostages: Israeli ambassador

Security Council to meet on Gaza hostages: Israeli ambassador
Updated 04 August 2025

Security Council to meet on Gaza hostages: Israeli ambassador

Security Council to meet on Gaza hostages: Israeli ambassador
  • In response, Hamas’s armed wing said that it would allow the agency access to the hostages but only if “humanitarian corridors” for food and aid were opened “across all areas of the Gaza Strip”
  • The videos make references to the calamitous humanitarian conditions in Gaza, where UN-mandated experts have warned a “famine is unfolding”

UNITED NATIONS, United States: The UN Security Council will hold an emergency session on the hostages in Gaza, Israel’s ambassador said Sunday, as outrage built over their fate in the war-torn enclave, where experts say a famine is unfolding.
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, posted the announcement on social media amid anger over videos showing two of the hostages held by Palestinian militant group Hamas emaciated.
Danon said that the Council “will convene this coming Tuesday for a special emergency session on the dire situation of the hostages in Gaza.”
The videos make references to the calamitous humanitarian conditions in Gaza, where UN-mandated experts have warned a “famine is unfolding.”
Israel has heavily restricted the entry of aid into Gaza, while UN agencies, humanitarian groups and analysts say that much of what Israel does allow in is looted or diverted in chaotic circumstances.
Many desperate Palestinians are left to risk their lives seeking what aid is distributed through controlled channels.
Earlier Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested the help of the International Committee of the Red Cross to get food to the hostages.
In response, Hamas’s armed wing said that it would allow the agency access to the hostages but only if “humanitarian corridors” for food and aid were opened “across all areas of the Gaza Strip.”
The Al-Qassam Brigades said it did “not intentionally starve” the hostages, but they would not receive any special food privileges “amid the crime of starvation and siege” in Gaza.
Over recent days, Hamas and its ally Islamic Jihad have released three videos showing two hostages seized during the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that triggered the ongoing war.
The images of Rom Braslavski and Evyatar David, both of whom appeared weak and malnourished, have fueled renewed calls in Israel for a truce and hostage release deal.
 

 


Survivors carry scars, await accountability five years after Lebanon’s Beirut port blast

Survivors carry scars, await accountability five years after Lebanon’s Beirut port blast
Updated 04 August 2025

Survivors carry scars, await accountability five years after Lebanon’s Beirut port blast

Survivors carry scars, await accountability five years after Lebanon’s Beirut port blast
  • Daily hospital visits have become rituals of remembrance and protest for many families of blast victims
  • Families have hope the new administration’s declared stance will be translated into action

BEIRUT: In a hospital room in the mountains of Mount Lebanon, 47-year-old Lara Hayek lies motionless. Five years after the catastrophic Beirut port explosion left her in a vegetative state, her mother Najwa maintains a daily vigil, clinging to hope that justice will finally arrive.

“Every single day, I wait for Lebanon’s courts to prosecute those who perpetrated this crime against defenseless civilians,” Najwa told Arab News.

The blast’s impact on Lara was devastating. Shrapnel from the explosion penetrated her eye, causing severe brain hemorrhaging that led to cardiac arrest.

Her frail body now depends entirely on medical intervention — breathing through a tracheostomy tube and receiving nutrition through a feeding tube inserted into her abdomen.

This combination of pictures created from UGC footage taken on August 4, 2020 and filmed from a high-rise shows a fireball exploding while smoke is billowing at the port of the Lebanese capital Beirut. (AFP)

“Medically speaking, my daughter died that day,” her mother said. “Emergency responders could not reach her quickly because every hospital was flooded with hundreds of casualties.”

Lara had been unwinding on her couch after work, in an apartment mere blocks from the Foreign Ministry, when the Aug. 4, 2020, explosion — comparable in force to an earthquake — tore through Beirut. Her mother’s late departure from work that day likely saved her life.

The daily hospital visits have become Najwa’s ritual of remembrance and protest. She speaks to her unresponsive daughter about her frustrations.

Wounded men are evacuated following of an explosion at the port of Beirut on August 4, 2020. (AFP)

“I buried my husband just one year before Lara’s accident. My son fled Lebanon. Now I am entirely alone, after they destroyed the daughter I sacrificed everything to raise.”

She added: “The government ignores her existence, refuses to cover her medical expenses — just like countless other victims forced to shoulder their own healthcare costs.”

The tragedy extends beyond her immediate family — her sister’s household, her brother-in-law’s family, all bear scars from that Tuesday evening.

FASTFACTS

• The Beirut port blast had a force equivalent to 1,000-1,500 tons of TNT, or 1.1 kilotons.

• Felt over 200 km away in Cyprus, causing damage to buildings up to 10 km from the port.

• It registered as a 3.3-magnitude earthquake, with shockwaves disrupting the ionosphere.

Half a decade after the explosion sent tremors across Lebanon and into neighboring nations, the architects of this preventable catastrophe walk free.

Judicial proceedings have implicated an extensive network of culpable parties — including former prime ministers, cabinet members, and high-ranking military, security, customs and judicial personnel. Their alleged crimes span from “professional negligence” to “possible premeditated murder.”

The disaster unfolded during the evening commute on Aug. 4, 2020, at 5:15 p.m. local time, as residents traveled home or conducted routine business in offices and residences.

A ship is pictured engulfed in flames at the port of Beirut following a massive explosion that hit the heart of the Lebanese capital on August 4, 2020. (AFP)

A fire erupted in a port warehouse containing 2,750 tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrate, along with kerosene, oil, fireworks, and methanol — ignited during welding repairs on the facility’s entrance.

By 6:06 p.m., the blaze had escalated into a nuclear-scale detonation that obliterated sections of the capital, excavated a 40-meter underwater crater, and claimed over 220 lives instantaneously while leaving thousands more trapped, bleeding and dying across the metropolitan area.

Lebanon mourned as a nation that tragic day, its anguish spanning the country’s entire 10,452 square kilometers.

The death toll continues its grim climb as comatose patients succumb to their injuries. Cecile Roukoz, legal counsel for families of victims and sister of deceased victim Joseph Roukoz, says the current tally stands at “245 fatalities and over 6,500 wounded.”

Lebanese army soldiers carry away an injured man at a hospital in the aftermath of an explosion at the port of Lebanon's capital Beirut on August 4, 2020. (AFP)

Najwa’s voice betrayed the exhaustion born of futile advocacy. “We have screamed ourselves hoarse in street demonstrations, demanding accountability,” she said. “Five years later, we have nothing to show for it.”

She said many families have abandoned hope and emigrated. Those who remain cannot trust authorities who have absolved themselves of responsibility for the shedding of their citizens’ blood.

The international scope of the tragedy is reflected in its victims: 52 foreign nationals from France, Australia, Germany, the Netherlands, Iran, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the Philippines, Egypt and Bangladesh perished, alongside a Palestinian driver who suffered fatal cardiac arrest from the explosion’s shockwave near Hotel-Dieu Hospital.

An aerial view shows the massive damage at Beirut port's grain silos and the area around it on August 5, 2020, one day after a massive explosion hit the heart of the Lebanese capital. (AFP)

This year, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam’s government decided to commemorate the anniversary by declaring a “national day of mourning, with flags flown at half-mast on official buildings, public administrations, and municipalities, and adjusting regular programming on radio and television stations to reflect the grief of the Lebanese people.”

The anniversary is accompanied by religious services in Beirut and marches organized by activists to raise their voices for “truth, accountability, and justice.”

Banners were raised in neighborhoods that were destroyed and later rebuilt, with messages written on them such as “We will not forget and we will not forgive” and “Aug. 4 is not a memory; it is a crime without punishment.”

Aside from that, the Lebanese people are still waiting for the indictment in the investigation led by Judge Tarek Bitar to be issued. He had promised to issue it this year in order to hold “every official and involved party accountable.”

This photo taken on  October 14, 2021, shows supporters of Hezbollah and the Amal movement burning a portrait of Judge Tarek Bitar, the Beirut blast lead investigator, and US Ambassador to Lebanon Dorothy Shea, near the Justice Palace in Beirut during a gathering to demand the Judge's dismissal. (AFP)

Bitar, whose investigation was forcibly frozen for 13 months, resumed his work at the beginning of this year following the election of Aoun and Salam, amid a shift in the political power balance in Lebanon after the decline of Hezbollah’s influence domestically following its recent war with Israel.

Aoun and Salam pledged in the inaugural address and the ministerial statement to work on establishing “judicial independence, preventing interference in its work, and combating the culture of impunity.”

Judge Jamal Hajjar, public prosecutor at the Court of Cassation, annulled the decision of his predecessor, Judge Ghassan Oueidat, made more than two years ago, to halt all cooperation with Bitar. This was in response to Bitar’s charges against Oueidat; Judge Ghassan Khoury, the public prosecutor at the Court of Cassation; and several other judges in the explosion case.

In this photo taken on January 17, 2022, activists and relatives of victims of the August 4, 2020 Beirut port explosion are shown holding posters of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah (R) and Wafiq Safa, a top Hezbollah security official, with a slogan in Arabic that reads: "He knew," during a sit-in outside the Justice Palace, a government building affiliated with the judiciary, in the Lebanese capital on January 17, 2022. Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike on Lebanon last year, but Safa has survived. (AFP)

Bitar held his last interrogation session on Dec. 24, 2021, and his work was later obstructed by lawsuits for recusal and liability filed against him by officials facing accusations. The number of these lawsuits against Bitar reached 43, and the courts have yet to rule on them.

Hezbollah led a campaign demanding Bitar’s removal, plunging the judicial investigation into political entanglement and judicial chaos.

The militant group and its ally, the Amal movement, rejected the prosecution of their affiliated ministers before the ordinary judiciary, insisting on the Supreme Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers, which stems from Parliament.

Bitar’s conviction, according to a judicial source, is based on the belief that “the crime committed is not political but criminal and led to the killing of hundreds, and he refuses to split the case between the ordinary judiciary and the Supreme Council for the Trial of Presidents and Ministers and the High Judicial Council.”

Before his retirement, Oueidat, in an unprecedented decision and clear challenge to Bitar and his procedures, released all 17 detainees in the port crime case, most of whom are port officials, employees and military personnel, arguing that Bitar was “usurping the title of judicial investigator and abusing authority.”

Protesters lift portraits of relatives they lost in the Beirut port blast during a march on the fourth anniversary of the devastating explosion near the capital city's harbor on August 4, 2024. (AFP)

Hajjar decided to resume cooperation with Bitar and to receive all memos issued by him, including notices summoning defendants for interrogation sessions and preliminary defenses for legal review.

On Jan. 16, Bitar resumed his judicial procedures by charging 10 officials, including seven officers from the Lebanese Army, General Security and Customs, and three civil employees, and later interrogated them.

The past months of March and April witnessed an unprecedented surge in investigative sessions dedicated to questioning security and political leaders who had previously refused to appear before him.

These included notably Hassan Diab, former prime minister; Nohad Machnouk, former interior minister; Jean Kahwaji, former army commander; Abbas Ibrahim, former General Security chief; former State Security director Gen. Tony Saliba; and Brigadier General Asaad Al-Tufayli, former Higher Council of Customs head.

To date, the only two individuals who have not yet appeared before Bitar are Judge Oweidat and Ghazi Zeaiter, a former MP and minister affiliated with Amal.

A metal installation set up across from the Beirut port with a view of its destroyed silos, shows a judge's gavel with a message calling for justice on August 1, 2025, as Lebanon prepares to mark the 5th anniversary of the August 4 harbor explosion. (AFP)

The judicial source told Arab News that the number of defendants in this case has reached 70.

“Judge Bitar has not informed the defendants of any decision regarding their fate, leaving the matter until the investigation is completed,” he said. “He will overlook the failure of Oweidat and Zeaiter to appear before him for questioning and will proceed with the information already in his possession.”

The source noted that Bitar considers all individuals who have been released by Judge Oweidat as still under arrest and travel bans, except for one defendant who holds US citizenship and has left Lebanon.

A political source predicted that the indictment will be issued soon, as all the facts are now before Judge Bitar and he has political cover. “There is no justification for delaying the issuance in the coming weeks,” he said.

A picture shows a view of the destroyed Beirut port silos on August 1, 2025, as Lebanon prepares to mark the 5th anniversary of the August 4 harbor explosion that killed more than 250 people and injured thousands. (AFP)

Roukoz, the legal counsel for families of victims, expressed optimism that the indictment would be issued soon. She told Arab News that she attends all interrogation sessions and believes that Judge Bitar has the integrity and determination needed to bring this investigation to a conclusion and issue the indictment, despite the despair of the victims’ families and their loss of hope in justice.

Roukoz said that the families have hope in the new administration’s declared stance — that no corrupt individual or criminal is protected by anyone — will be translated into action.

“We believe that it is the state’s duty to determine who destroyed the city. Dozens of families have emigrated from Lebanon following the explosion, and it is necessary to restore people’s trust in their state and the sovereignty of the law.” 
 

 


Hamas says no special food privileges for Gaza hostages

Hamas says no special food privileges for Gaza hostages
Updated 03 August 2025

Hamas says no special food privileges for Gaza hostages

Hamas says no special food privileges for Gaza hostages
  • Hamas would only allow the ICRC to provide aid to Israeli hostages on the condition that humanitarian corridors are opened to Gaza

GAZA CITY: The Palestinian militant group Hamas said Sunday that Israeli hostages would not receive any “special privileges” in the food they are given compared to the rest of the Gazan population.

“(Hamas) does not intentionally starve the captives, but they eat the same food our fighters and the general public eat. They will not receive any special privileges amid the crime of starvation and siege,” Hamas’s military wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, wrote in a statement.

The group added that it would only allow the International Committee of the Red Cross to provide aid to Israeli hostages on the condition that humanitarian corridors are opened to Gaza.

“(We) are ready to respond positively (to) any request by the Red Cross to deliver food and medicine to enemy prisoners. However, we condition our acceptance on the opening of humanitarian corridors... for the passage of food and medicine... across all areas of the Gaza Strip,” Hamas’s military wing wrote in a separate statement.

The response came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested that the ICRC help provide food to the hostages held in Gaza, and after the agency issued a “call to be granted access to the hostages” in a statement posted on X.


Syrian and Turkish authorities arrest dangerous drug kingpin

Syrian and Turkish authorities arrest dangerous drug kingpin
Updated 03 August 2025

Syrian and Turkish authorities arrest dangerous drug kingpin

Syrian and Turkish authorities arrest dangerous drug kingpin
  • A joint operation between Syria’s Anti-Narcotics Directorate and their Turkish counterparts led to his arrest insideTurkish territory
  • Amer Jdei Al-Sheikh is wanted by several countries for serious organized crimes related to drug manufacturing and smuggling

LONDON: Syrian anti-narcotics authorities announced on Sunday the arrest of Amer Jdei Al-Sheikh, a highly dangerous kingpin involved in drug networks in Syria and the Middle East region.

Al-Sheikh is wanted by several countries, including Turkiye, for serious organized crimes related to drug manufacturing and smuggling, according to Syrian authorities.

On Sunday, a joint operation between Syria’s Anti-Narcotics Directorate and their Turkish counterparts led to his arrest inside Turkish territory.

The head of Syria’s Anti-Narcotics Directorate, Brig. Gen. Khaled Eid, told SANA: “The arrested individual was traveling using forged IDs and passports in an attempt to evade security pursuit. He was tracked until he eventually entered Turkish territories, where he was arrested by Turkish authorities in coordination with Syrian counterparts and was handed over to (us).”

He said that Al-Sheikh was among the most “dangerous individuals” involved in drug smuggling networks in Syria and beyond, maintaining close ties with international smuggling rings and influential figures in the underground narcotics world.

Eid said that the suspect maintained close ties with Maher Assad, the brother of the ousted Syrian president, who is accused of spearheading the highly organized expansion of captagon facilities during the era of the former regime.


At least 68 migrants dead in shipwreck off Yemen: UN migration body

Yemenis prepare to take to the sea to look for survivors after a boat carrying migrants capsized Yemen’s Shabwah province. (AFP)
Yemenis prepare to take to the sea to look for survivors after a boat carrying migrants capsized Yemen’s Shabwah province. (AFP)
Updated 03 August 2025

At least 68 migrants dead in shipwreck off Yemen: UN migration body

Yemenis prepare to take to the sea to look for survivors after a boat carrying migrants capsized Yemen’s Shabwah province. (AFP)
  • “Many bodies have been found across various beaches, suggesting that a number of victims are still missing at sea,” Abyan province’s security directorate said

DUBAI: A shipwreck off Yemen killed at least 68 migrants, with 74 still missing, The UN’s migration agency reported on Sunday.

“At this stage, the deaths of 27 people are confirmed, their bodies have been recovered,” one security source had earlier said, adding that “searches are ongoing.”

A second source said “150 people were on board the vessel that sank,” also reporting 27 dead.

A police source told AFP that “the boat was heading for the coast of (Abyan) province,” adding that “smuggler boats regularly arrive in our region.”

Abyan province’s security directorate said in a statement that security forces “are currently conducting a large operation to recover the bodies of a significant number of Ethiopian migrants (Oromos) who drowned off the coast of Abyan while attempting to illegally enter Yemeni territory.”

“Many bodies have been found across various beaches, suggesting that a number of victims are still missing at sea,” it added.

Despite the war that has ravaged Yemen since 2014, irregular migration via the impoverished country has continued, in particular from Ethiopia, which itself has been roiled by ethnic conflict.

Migrants cross the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, which separates Djibouti from Yemen and is a major route for international trade headed to and from the Suez Canal, as well as for migration and human trafficking.

According to the UN’s International Organization for Migration, tens of thousands of migrants have become stranded in Yemen and suffer abuse and exploitation during their journeys.