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Oil Updates — prices poised for weekly fall on Trump’s energy policies

Update Oil Updates — prices poised for weekly fall on Trump’s energy policies
Brent crude futures were down 9 cents at $78.20 a barrel by 7:45 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
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Updated 24 January 2025

Oil Updates — prices poised for weekly fall on Trump’s energy policies

Oil Updates — prices poised for weekly fall on Trump’s energy policies

LONDON: Oil prices edged up on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping plans to boost US production and demanded that OPEC move to lower crude prices.

Brent crude futures gained 25 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $78.54 a barrel by 2:47 p.m. Saudi time GMT while US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 22 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $74.84.

Over the week Brent has lost nearly 3 percent while WTI is down close to 4 percent.

“After a week of Trump being in office, the various executive orders are not being disruptive to oil supplies. Most of what he has done has been with an inward domestic focus,” said Harry Tchilinguiran at Onyx Capital Group.

“We were looking for pronouncements around tariffs, around Iran, Venezuela and Russia.”

Ahead of Trump’s inauguration the market had built up a net long position in oil futures to hedge against price gains arising from supply disruption, but this has now started to unwind, Tchilinguiran said.

Trump, during his speech on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said he would demand that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries bring down the cost of crude barrels.

He also said he would ask Ƶ to increase a US investment package to $1 trillion, up from $600 billion reported by the Kingdom’s state news agency earlier in the day.

“I don’t really expect OPEC will change policy unless there is a change in fundamentals,” said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo. “Markets will be relatively muted until we get more clarity on sanctions policy and tariffs.” 

Trump had declared a national energy emergency on Monday, rolling back environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure as part of a sweeping plan to maximize domestic oil and gas production.

On Wednesday, he vowed to hit the EU with tariffs and impose 25 percent tariffs against Canada and Mexico, and said his administration was considering a 10 percent punitive duty on China.

As attention shifts to a possible February timeline for new tariffs set by Trump, caution will likely persist in the market as any new trade restrictions will carry negative implications for global growth, potentially weighing on oil demand prospects, said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.

Traders expect oil prices to range between $76.50 and $78 a barrel, Yeap added.

While bullish catalysts like a significant drawdown in US crude stocks are providing temporary positive swings, an overall oversupplied global market and ailing projections of Chinese demand continue to weigh on crude futures, Phillip Nova’s Sachdeva said.

US crude inventories last week hit their lowest level since March 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

The EIA report, issued a day late because of a US holiday on Monday, said crude stockpiles fell by 1 million barrels to 411.7 million barrels in the week to Jan. 17, marking a ninth consecutive weekly decline.


Reforms, incentives paving way for Ƶ’s rise as logistics hub

Reforms, incentives paving way for Ƶ’s rise as logistics hub
Updated 9 sec ago

Reforms, incentives paving way for Ƶ’s rise as logistics hub

Reforms, incentives paving way for Ƶ’s rise as logistics hub
  • Kingdom’s logistics market projected to hit $38.8 billionn by 2026, growing at a compound annual rate of 5.85 percent

RIYADH: Ƶ’s logistics sector is emerging as a magnet for global investment, powered by regulatory reforms, incentive schemes, and its alignment with the ambitious Vision 2030 agenda, according to industry experts.

As the Kingdom pushes ahead with economic diversification, strengthening its transport and logistics infrastructure has become a central pillar of the program. 

The National Logistics Strategy aims to transform Ƶ into a global hub by integrating multiple modes of transport, expanding connectivity, and stimulating economic growth.

Speaking to Arab News, Paolo Carlomagno, partner at Arthur D. Little, said global logistics players now view Ƶ not only as a high-growth market but as a strategic regional hub for multimodal operations — spanning the Gulf Cooperation Council region, Red Sea basin, and East Africa — anchored by the Kingdom’s expanding port, airport, and inland logistics network. 

“The Kingdom has opened its logistics ecosystem through full foreign ownership allowances, streamlined customs procedures, and the development of strategic economic zones such as King Abdullah Economic City — collectively reducing barriers for international firms seeking to establish or expand their presence,” said Carlomagno. 

He added: “With a population of approximately 36 million, Ƶ offers significant domestic demand, which — combined with rising trade volumes — is helping transform the Kingdom into a central logistics node for both regional and global flows.”

In January, the Kingdom introduced 15 new incentives under the Authorized Economic Operator program to bolster its export competitiveness. These included streamlined administrative processes, dedicated account managers, and liaison officers to support investors.

Carlomagno said upcoming global events such as Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup would further accelerate the Kingdom’s logistics transformation. Both events are expected to drive infrastructure development, accelerate foreign investment, and unlock new trade corridors, he added. 

Andre Martins, head of transportation, services, and operations for India, Middle East, and Africa at Oliver Wyman, echoed this view. He highlighted Ƶ’s scale, infrastructure investments, and strategic location as key advantages.

“Ƶ’s position as the largest country in the Middle East, combined with significant plans to upscale infrastructure and logistics capabilities, creates a strong foundation for becoming a central logistics hub,” he said, adding that the Kingdom is establishing multiple logistics zones while continuing to upgrade ports and increase rail connectivity with potential east-to-west connections under Vision 2030.

Martins also pointed to the strong domestic demand, particularly in Riyadh, as a growing force behind the Kingdom’s logistics ambitions. 

Government support

According to a December report by the General Authority for Statistics, the number of logistics facilities in Ƶ has surged 267 percent since 2021. A separate report from Maersk in November projected the Kingdom’s logistics market would hit $38.8 billion by 2026, growing at a compound annual rate of 5.85 percent.

Carlomagno pointed to the broader transformation strategy being implemented by the government, particularly the development of logistics zones designed to lower costs, boost connectivity, and drive industrial expansion.

“Recent ZATCA regulatory reforms — notably around less-than-container load handling in seaports — are increasing operational efficiency and making logistics more accessible for small and medium enterprises,” he said.

The Arthur D. Little partner added: “Additionally, the rollout of a national logistics platform (Single Window) is streamlining communication between logistics players and government entities, consolidating permits, customs, and approvals into one digital interface.”

Carlomagno also emphasized growing transparency, citing publicly available data on land, logistics zones, and shipping routes.

“Collectively, these initiatives reflect a coordinated push to make Ƶ a modern, investor-ready logistics ecosystem,” he said.

Martins noted the government’s proactive efforts to attract global firms, offering tax breaks, incentive packages, and access to a large captive market. 

“The Kingdom encourages these international companies by facilitating access to captive demand while providing specific incentive packages and tax advantages to encourage market entry and expansion,” he said.

In December, Saudi Transport and Logistics Minister Saleh Al-Jasser announced plans to increase the number of logistics zones from 22 to 59 by 2030. This includes 18 new zones, backed by investments exceeding SR10 billion ($2.66 billion).

UNCTAD’s 2024 report also highlighted Ƶ’s growing global role, noting a 231-point rise in the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index and the addition of 30 new maritime shipping lines.

In August, Ƶ approved an updated investment law to improve transparency and streamline the investor journey. It guarantees fair treatment, protects intellectual property rights, and enables seamless fund transfers.

Leveraging geography and megaprojects

Ƶ’s geographic location — at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe — positions it advantageously on the global logistics map, but Carlomagno said this natural strength has historically been underutilized.

“Targeted infrastructure investments — such as port automation, integrated rail and road links, and inland logistics zones — are now enabling the Kingdom to fully harness this potential and position itself as a global logistics hub,” he said.

Martins noted that megacity developments are driving up logistics demand, not only during construction but throughout their operational lifespans.

“The construction and deployment periods require significant flows of goods and materials, while operational cities with resident populations create ongoing logistics needs. With expected continued population growth, demand for logistics services will only increase,” he said.

Carlomagno pointed to NEOM’s Oxagon as a prime example of logistics integration, describing it as “being developed as a next-generation logistics hub.”

He added that it will blend automated ports, AI-driven supply chains, and advanced manufacturing in a single maritime-logistics ecosystem.

“Supporting this is the new NEOM International Airport, which is strategically planned to handle both cargo and passenger volumes at scale, and NEOM Airlines, a new carrier designed to integrate seamlessly with smart logistics and cargo distribution infrastructure,” said Carlomagno.

With e-commerce surging, the Arthur D. Little partner said demand is also rising for fast, tech-enabled logistics services — especially in last-mile delivery, smart warehousing, and fulfillment operations.

A report from Research and Markets in April projected the Kingdom’s e-commerce market, valued at $24.67 billion in 2024, will grow to $68.94 billion by 2033 at an annual rate of 12.10 percent. 

Addressing the challenges

Despite the momentum, experts warned of challenges that need to be addressed to sustain Ƶ’s rise. 

“While Ƶ is moving in the right direction at a good pace, other countries are simultaneously investing in their logistics infrastructure, airports, ports, and platforms. The key challenge is ensuring that market demand, supply, and economics remain commercially viable for all players,” Martins said.

He added: “Additionally, geopolitical uncertainty presents potential risks to plans, and so many players are deploying a certain level of modularity to mitigate geopolitical risks while maintaining competitive positioning.”

Carlomagno pointed out that a shortage of specialized talent — particularly in digital logistics — could pose a hurdle, calling for more training and localization.

He also stressed the importance of sustainable logistics practices to align with global environmental, social and governance standards.

“Addressing these challenges demands a systemic approach that aligns infrastructure, policy, and human capabilities,” he concluded.
 


Abu Dhabi index gains on oil surge, Dubai falls on profit-taking

Abu Dhabi index gains on oil surge, Dubai falls on profit-taking
Updated 18 July 2025

Abu Dhabi index gains on oil surge, Dubai falls on profit-taking

Abu Dhabi index gains on oil surge, Dubai falls on profit-taking

BENGALURU: Abu Dhabi index closed higher on Friday, supported by an increase in oil prices after the EU introduced new sanctions against Russia, while the Dubai index declined after investors moved to book profit on last five sessions’ gains.

Abu Dhabi’s benchmark index recorded gains for the fourth session with the index finishing 0.2 percent higher, led by a 1.7 percent jump in Emirates Telecom Group, while its biggest lender First Abu Dhabi Bank added 0.5 percent.

Dubai’s main index meanwhile fell 0.2 percent, ending a five-day winning streak after reaching its highest level in 17 and a half years during the previous session.

Losses were driven by a decline in financial sector stocks as Dubai’s top lender Emirates NBD Bank dropped 2.4 percent after three consecutive session gains, while Commercial Bank of Dubai slumped 3.6 percent.

However, budget airline Air Arabia rose by 0.8 percent, continuing its upward trend after Air Arabia Abu Dhabi announced plans to increase its operational capacity by 40 percent in 2025.

The Dubai index saw profit-taking on Friday, but its sustained rally last week has pushed the index to a key resistance level. Next week’s corporate earnings may provide the catalyst needed to break through this barrier, said Ahmed Negm, head of market research MENA at XS.com.

Dubai’s index went up 4.1 percent and Abu Dhabi’s rose 2 percent in their fourth week of gains, according to LSEG data.

Markets remain steady, supported by positive corporate earnings and stable oil prices, though global developments continue to have an impact on investor confidence, said Negm. 


Global Markets — shares rise as US consumer holds up, yen weak ahead of Japan vote

Global Markets — shares rise as US consumer holds up, yen weak ahead of Japan vote
Updated 18 July 2025

Global Markets — shares rise as US consumer holds up, yen weak ahead of Japan vote

Global Markets — shares rise as US consumer holds up, yen weak ahead of Japan vote

LONDON/SYDNEY: Global shares edged higher on Friday as robust US economic data and corporate earnings this week tempered tariff concerns for now, while the yen headed toward a second successive weekly loss ahead of a crunch legislative election in Japan on Sunday.

Stronger-than-expected US retail sales and jobless claims suggesting modest improvement in economic activity helped to push the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to close at record highs on Thursday.

Asian and European shares followed suit with gains on Friday, with Asian shares outside Japan up 0.9 percent, while European stocks were last up 0.4 percent. Wall Street futures were also up around 0.1 percent.

A solid start to earnings season in the US — with companies including streaming giant Netflix beating forecasts — was also supporting investor confidence, said Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham.

“We’re pretty constructive on the (US) macro backdrop ... We do see some scope for slowing growth, but not for anything material and that’s giving the markets quite a nice bounce,” Osman said, adding the potential full impact of US tariffs was still in focus.

Alphabet and Tesla are among the companies reporting half-year results next week, which will further test the market mood.

The dollar was broadly flat against the yen at 148.65 but was down nearly 1 percent this week after polls showed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition was in danger of losing its majority in the upper house election on Sunday.

Data on Friday showed Japan’s core inflation slowed in June due to temporary cuts in utility bills but stayed above the central bank’s 2 percent target. The rising cost of living, including the soaring price of rice, is among the reasons for Ishiba’s declining popularity.

“If PM Ishiba decides to resign on an election loss, USDJPY could easily break above 149.7 as it would usher in an initial period of political turbulence,” said Jayati Bharadwaj, head of FX strategy at TD Securities, adding: “JPY could reverse the recent dramatic weakness if the ruling coalition wins and is able to make swift progress on a trade deal with Trump.”

In currency markets, the US dollar index slipped 0.1 percent to 98.365, but was heading for a second successive weekly gain, bouncing from a 3-1/2 year low hit over two weeks ago.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday he continues to believe the central bank should cut interest rates at the end of this month, though most officials who have spoken publicly have signalled no desire to move.

Treasury yields were slightly lower. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields dropped 2 basis points to 4.44 percent, two-year yields also edged 2 bps lower to 3.90 percent.


Saudi bank loans hit $845bn as corporate lending booms

Saudi bank loans hit $845bn as corporate lending booms
Updated 18 July 2025

Saudi bank loans hit $845bn as corporate lending booms

Saudi bank loans hit $845bn as corporate lending booms

RIYADH: Saudi banks’ total outstanding loans reached SR3.17 trillion ($844.7 billion) at the end of May, an annual increase of 16.28 percent, according to the latest official data.

Figures released by the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, show that this marks one of the fastest annual credit expansions in recent years, underscoring strong economic momentum in the Kingdom.

The SAMA data revealed that business loans now comprise 55.35 percent of all bank credit, up from 52.87 percent a year ago.

Corporate lending surged 21.73 percent year on year to SR1.75 trillion, far outpacing personal lending, which rose around 10 percent to SR1.41 trillion.

This shift highlights how companies have become the dominant force in Ƶ’s lending landscape, as banks pivot from consumer finance to funding large projects and enterprises.

The Kingdom’s credit boom stands out within the region. Across the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, most banking sectors are expanding on the back of post-pandemic economic growth and government spending, but Saudi banks are leading the pack in loan growth.

A Kamco Invest report published in May found the Kingdom posted the region’s highest year-on-year loan growth in the first quarter of 2025, outpacing other Gulf markets.

This growth was broad-based across sectors — including construction, real estate, education, and transport — whereas some neighboring countries saw more subdued or narrowly focused increases.

The UAE, the region’s second-largest banking market, is also seeing solid credit expansion supported by its own infrastructure and economic reforms.

Gulf banks in general benefit from strong capitalization and government backing, which has kept credit flowing. The International Monetary Fund projects GCC economies to grow around 3.5 percent in 2025, with Ƶ, the UAE, and Qatar driving non-oil growth.

This trend aligns with the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification plan, which emphasizes infrastructure, industry, and non-oil sectors. It also indicates that after a decade of mortgage-fueled expansion, banks are rebalancing portfolios toward commercial lending in response to market demand and government priorities.

This “structural hand-off” means business lending is now the engine of Saudi banking — a significant change after years when consumer mortgages dominated credit creation.

Real estate dominates; education and transport soar

Within corporate lending, real estate developers remain the single largest borrower group according to SAMA data. Real estate activities accounted for 21.35 percent of outstanding corporate credit, totaling approximately SR374 billion in May.

This segment grew by a remarkable 37.7 percent annually, reflecting heightened demand for housing, commercial infrastructure, and mega-project development across the Kingdom.

Ƶ’s ambitious construction boom — from new housing in major cities to giga-projects like NEOM, the Red Sea tourism resorts, and large mixed-use developments — has driven banks to significantly increase financing for land purchases, building, and property development.

According to a March report by real estate consultancy JLL, Ƶ’s real estate sector is set for sustained growth, driven by Vision 2030 diversification goals and robust non-oil economic expansion.

The construction sector recorded $29.5 billion in project awards in 2024, while the property market is forecast by the Real Estate General Authority to reach $101.6 billion by 2029, growing at a compound annual rate of 8 percent. 

Grade-A office demand in Riyadh surged, with vacancy falling to just 0.2 percent by the end of 2024 and average rents reaching $609 per sq. meter.

JLL noted that 326,000 sq. meters of leasable space was delivered in 2024, with an additional 888,600 sq. meters in the pipeline for 2025. The firm added that Jeddah is emerging as a competitive alternative, attracting regional and international firms, while rising office and logistics rents in both Riyadh and Jeddah indicate strong commercial demand.

The report also highlighted real estate tailwinds from upcoming mega-events like the 2030 FIFA World Cup and Expo 2030, which are expected to inject significant capital and further boost infrastructure development across the Kingdom.

Other major sectors in banks’ corporate portfolios include wholesale and retail trade, around 12.2 percent of corporate credit, utilities like electricity, water and gas of 11 percent, and manufacturing at 11 percent.

Each of these recorded healthy double-digit growth, supported by increased public and private investment and industrial reforms.

This includes lending to the utilities sector growing to SR196 billion, as Ƶ expands power grids, renewable energy projects, and water infrastructure to meet rising demand.

Manufacturing loans — about SR191 billion — reflect ongoing expansion in petrochemicals, metals, and consumer goods production under diversification initiatives.

Crucially, some of the fastest growth rates were seen in smaller, emerging segments, highlighting shifting priorities. 

Education sector credit, though making up only 0.55 percent of corporate loans, jumped by over 48 percent year on year to around SR9.58 billion.

This was the highest growth of any sector, fueled by a national drive to expand and modernize educational institutions. Ƶ is encouraging more private investment in schools, universities, and training centers as part of Vision 2030’s human capital development goals.

Transport and logistics is another booming area. Loans for transportation and storage climbed 43 percent year on year, reaching SR68 billion.

This reflects Ƶ’s push to become a global logistics hub, building new ports, airports, railways, and warehouses. Huge projects such as the expansion of Riyadh’s King Salman International Airport and the launch of a new national airline, as well as improvements in roads and shipping infrastructure, require significant funding.

The government’s National Transport and Logistics Strategy envisions $150 billion of investments in transport infrastructure by 2030, with 80 percent of these coming from the private sector via public-private partnerships and privatizations in airports and roadways.

Banks are playing a key role by lending to contractors and logistics firms involved in these ventures. The result is that transport and logistics finance has seen one of the sharpest upticks across all industries, second only to education in growth rate.

Going forward, Saudi lenders are expected to maintain a delicate balance, financing aggressive growth in the corporate sector while guarding against liquidity and risk pressures.


Oil Updates — prices rise after EU new sanctions on Russia

Oil Updates — prices rise after EU new sanctions on Russia
Updated 18 July 2025

Oil Updates — prices rise after EU new sanctions on Russia

Oil Updates — prices rise after EU new sanctions on Russia

LONDON: Crude oil futures rose on Friday while gasoil futures jumped to a 17-month high as investors weighed new EU sanctions against Russia.

Brent crude futures climbed 73 cents, or 1.05 percent, to $70.25 a barrel by 1:51 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 83 cents, or 1.23 percent, to $68.37.

The premium on low-sulfur gasoil futures to Brent crude was up $3.50 at $27.27, the almost 15 percent increase lifting the spread to its highest since February 2024.

The EU reached an agreement on an 18th sanctions package against Russia over its war in Ukraine, which includes measures aimed at dealing further blows to Russia’s oil and energy industries.

Its latest sanctions package will lower the G7’s price cap for buying Russian crude oil to $47.6 a barrel, diplomats told Reuters.

The EU will also no longer import any petroleum products made from Russian crude, though the ban will not apply to imports from Norway, Britain, the US, Canada and Switzerland, EU diplomats said.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas also said on X that the EU has designated the largest Rosneft oil refinery in India as part of the measures.

Higher gasoil futures could be driven by an EU ban on fuel imports derived from Russian crude, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, as well as low inventories in northwest Europe.

The EU and UK have imported about 196,000 barrels per day of refined fuel from India so far this year, the majority of which was diesel, gasoil and jet fuel, according to data from analytics business Kpler.

Europe produces less diesel and jet fuel than it consumes, making it reliant on imports from other regions.

“This shows the market fears the loss of diesel supply into Europe, as India had been a source of barrels,” said Rystad Energy’s vice president of oil markets, Janiv Shah.

Investors were considering the potential impact of the price cap change and vessel designations on crude markets.

Investors are awaiting news from the US on possible further sanctions after President Donald Trump this week threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Moscow agrees a peace deal in 50 days.

“Ultimately, it is now a matter of waiting for possible major changes in US sanctions and tariff policy,” Commerzbank analysts said in a note.

The US has not backed Europe on the latest sanctions package, leaving the EU with limited power to enforce the measures.

“We expect limited impact from the lower price cap and tanker sanctions; landed prices for diesel in Europe could increase somewhat due to larger logistics issues to get products into Europe, but we think enforcement challenges limit the impact on flows,” said BNP Paribas analyst Aldo Spanjer.

Prices could also have received support after Reuters reported that a restart of Iraq’s Kurdish oil exports is not imminent despite Iraq’s federal government saying on Thursday that shipments would resume immediately.