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Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global 

Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global 
The sustained momentum reflects the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy to reduce reliance on oil. Shutterstock
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Updated 07 April 2025

Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global 

Saudi non-oil growth holds firm in March with PMI at 58: S&P Global 

RIYADH: Ƶ’s non-oil private sector maintained its resilience in March, with the Kingdom’s Purchasing Managers’ Index reaching 58.1, the highest among its Middle Eastern peers.

According to the latest Riyad Bank Ƶ PMI report compiled by S&P Global, non-oil private firms in the Kingdom witnessed a marked increase in new order volumes, although the growth rate softened further from the near 14-year record seen in January. 

The March figure represented a slight decline from the 58.4 seen in February, but it was still higher than UAE’s PMI rating of 54, Kuwait’s at 52.3 and Qatar’s at 52. 

Any PMI reading above 50 signifies an expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. 

The sustained momentum reflects the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 strategy to reduce reliance on oil by accelerating growth in tourism, manufacturing, logistics, and financial services. 

Naif Al-Ghaith, chief economist at Riyad Bank, described the Saudi non-oil private sector as demonstrating “significant resilience and growth,” adding: “This reading reflects sustained positive momentum in business conditions, highlighting the sector’s robust economic health and its vital role in the ongoing diversification efforts of the Kingdom as envisaged by Vision 2030.” 

Ƶ’s non-oil businesses continued to increase their employment at an elevated pace in March, driven by an upturn in demand. 

The report further said that staffing growth was little changed from February’s 16-month high, as firms widely commented on efforts to build their sales teams and overall capacity. 

Survey data also indicated that job growth in Ƶ’s non-oil private sector during the first three months of this year was the fastest since the third quarter of 2012. 

“Rising employment rates are a direct benefit of businesses scaling up operations to meet demand. By providing more job opportunities, Ƶ aims to nurture a skilled and ambitious workforce, reducing the unemployment rate to 7 percent for Saudi nationals,” said Al-Ghaith.

Speaking at the World Investment Conference in Riyadh last November, Ƶ’s Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim said non-oil activities now account for 52 percent of the Kingdom’s gross domestic product. He added that the non-oil economy has grown by 20 percent since the launch of Vision 2030.

The latest PMI report added that greater marketing efforts, lower selling prices, and a broader improvement in economic conditions played a crucial role in driving sales growth among non-oil firms in Ƶ in March. 

New orders from foreign markets also rose in March, although the rate of expansion slowed. 

Highlighting the affinity of Ƶ’s non-oil products in international markets, a report by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that the Kingdom’s non-energy exports surged by 10.7 percent in January to reach SR26.48 billion ($7.06 billion). 

According to the latest S&P Global report, increased workforces and stronger new businesses supported a robust upturn in non-oil private sector activity during March. 

Non-oil firms in the Kingdom also engaged in additional stockpiling as they anticipate a sustained uplift in sales. 

Companies that took part in the survey revealed that purchasing activity rose sharply in March, leading to another steep increase in total inventories. 

“The improvement in business conditions supports efforts to attract investment, increase the competitiveness of the Saudi economy, and enhance local business growth,” said Al-Ghaith. 

He added: “This initiative is further supported by governmental enhancements in regulatory frameworks and infrastructure investments which pave the way for greater private and foreign investments.” 

Attracting international investments is one of the crucial goals outlined in Ƶ’s Vision 2030, with the Kingdom aiming to attract $100 billion a year in foreign direct investment by the end of this decade. 

The latest S&P Global report further said that suppliers’ delivery times improved in March, with several panellists noting that strong vendor relationships had facilitated efficiency gains. 

However, some reports of supply disruption and administrative delays led to a much softer overall upturn in performance compared to February. This softening also hindered efforts to clear outstanding work, contributing to a renewed and sharp rise in total backlogs. 

In terms of pricing, the latest survey revealed that input cost pressures witnessed a marked easing in March. 

The report added that the rate of inflation dropped to its lowest level in just over four years, as firms saw a much weaker increase in purchase prices. Consequently, non-oil companies reduced their selling prices for the first time in six months. 

“Sustaining and nurturing these positive trends, Ƶ is laying the groundwork for a multifaceted and thriving economy that meets the aspirations of its people and the strategic goals of the nation,” said Al-Ghaith. 

“With each uptick in the PMI and every incremental GDP growth, the Kingdom moves closer to realizing its ambitions of a diversified, sustainable economic future,” he concluded.  


Oil Updates — price rally pauses as markets weigh Trump’s ultimatum to Russia

Oil Updates — price rally pauses as markets weigh Trump’s ultimatum to Russia
Updated 30 July 2025

Oil Updates — price rally pauses as markets weigh Trump’s ultimatum to Russia

Oil Updates — price rally pauses as markets weigh Trump’s ultimatum to Russia
  • Trump cuts deadline, vows sanctions if Russia makes no progress
  • Supply risks rise over US warning to China over Russian oil
  • China unlikely to comply with US sanctions, analysts say

NEW DELHI: Oil prices took a breather in Asian trade on Wednesday after the previous session’s spike of more than 3 percent, as investors awaited developments from US President Donald Trump’s tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine.

Most-active Brent crude futures rose 1 cent, or 0.01 percent, to $71.69 a barrel by 8:33 Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2 cents, or 0.03 percent, to $69.19 a barrel.

The Brent crude September contract expiring on Wednesday was up 5 cents at $72.56 per barrel.

Both contracts had settled on Tuesday at their highest since June 20.

On Tuesday, Trump said he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100 percent on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.

“The $4 to $5 per barrel of supply-risk premium injected in recent days can be expected to be sustained, unless Putin makes a conciliatory move,” said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

The US had warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a news conference in Stockholm, where the US was holding trade talks with the EU.

JP Morgan analysts said in a note that while China was not likely to comply with US sanctions, India has signalled it would do so, putting at risk 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.

The US and the EU averted a trade war with a deal for 15 percent US tariffs on European imports, easing concerns about the impact of trade tensions on economic growth and offering support to oil prices.

In Venezuela, foreign partners of state oil company PDVSA are still waiting for US authorization to operate in the sanctioned country after talks last week, which could return some supply to the market, so easing pressure for prices to rise.

“The oil market is keeping an eye on the US trade deals and talks, and on the Fed, but those are marginal influences on sentiment,” Hari added.

Despite President Donald Trump’s objections, the US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting later on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund raised global growth forecasts slightly for 2025 and 2026, but warned the world economy faced major risks, such as a rebound in tariff rates, geopolitical tension and larger fiscal deficits. 


IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%
Updated 29 July 2025

IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Ƶ to 3.6 percent, up from the 3 percent projected in April, citing stronger non-oil sector performance and the expected unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said the revision reflects a stronger-than-anticipated expansion of the non-oil economy. The Kingdom’s growth is now set to outpace the global average of 3 percent next year and surpass that of most neighboring Gulf states.

Looking ahead, the IMF expects Ƶ’s growth to rise further to 3.9 percent in 2026 before stabilizing around 3.5 percent over the medium term.

Non-oil gross domestic product is projected to grow 3.4 percent in 2025, slightly below the 4.2 percent recorded in 2024. However, medium-term prospects remain strong, with non-oil growth forecast to approach 4 percent by 2027 before settling at 3.5 percent by the end of the decade.

Labor market conditions have also improved, with the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals falling to a record low of 7 percent in 2024, the IMF noted.

Inflation remains contained, with the headline rate expected to stay near 2 percent, supported by the Kingdom’s dollar peg and subsidy framework.

On fiscal policy, the IMF said higher government spending in 2025 — resulting in a deficit above the initial budget — was justified and that additional spending cuts in response to lower oil prices could be counterproductive. Such cuts would risk making fiscal policy procyclical and weighing on growth, the report stated.

The IMF also called for a gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term. It recommended raising non-oil revenues, phasing out energy subsidies, and streamlining public expenditure.

Despite facing some pressures from strong credit growth and funding costs, the Saudi banking sector remains resilient, the IMF said. The Saudi Central Bank has introduced a countercyclical capital buffer and is continuing to strengthen regulatory frameworks.

The report emphasized the importance of sustaining structural reforms to support non-oil growth and economic diversification. It urged continued progress on governance, human capital development, financial access, digitalization, and capital market deepening — regardless of oil price trends.


GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest

GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest
Updated 29 July 2025

GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest

GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest
  • Dubai recorded a monthly inflation rate of 2.4% in June
  • Ƶ and Kuwait registered inflation rates of 2.3%

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council inflation rates remained stable throughout the second quarter of 2025 despite heightened geopolitical instability, a new report showed.

According to the latest analysis by Kuwait-based non-banking firm Kamco Invest, Dubai recorded a monthly inflation rate of 2.4 percent in June, unchanged from May, followed by Ƶ and Kuwait, both registering inflation rates of 2.3 percent in June.

This aligns with recently released data from the Statistical Center for the GCC, which shows that the region’s average inflation rate fell to 1.7 percent in 2024, down from 2.2 percent in 2023.

It also supports the fact that the GCC economies are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 4 percent, as rising oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity offset global trade headwinds, according to a recent economic update by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales prepared with Oxford Economics.

“The war in the Middle East affected crude oil prices that surged to almost $79 per barrel. But quietly receded in the subsequent weeks as OPEC+ accelerated the output hikes aiming to unwind the full 2.2 mb/d by September-2025,” Kamco said.

It added: “Brent crude oil is trading at $68.4 per barrel, 8.3 percent lower than its level at the end of 2024. The quarter also witnessed the start of the global tariff war that affected financial markets and expectations for future economic growth.”

The Kamco report also said that the conflict’s limited impact on regional inflation was largely because increases in commodity and shipping costs occurred gradually over time, rather than through sudden spikes.

The ongoing application of prudent economic policies across the GCC has also played a key role in controlling inflation, keeping rates well below those in other parts of the Middle East and the world.

Inflationary pressures in the US intensified in June, with the annual rate climbing to 2.7 percent, the highest in five months, up from 2.4 percent in May. The uptick was primarily attributed to rising prices in core goods, which hit their highest level in two years.

“These increases are largely attributed to new tariffs affecting household furnishings, appliances, electronics, apparel, and toys. Meanwhile, the US consumer price index registered a m-o-m (month-on-month) growth of 0.3 percent in June-2025. Excluding the typically volatile food and energy sectors, US core inflation increased by 0.2 percent m-o-m, with the annualized core rate rising to 2.9 percent in June,” Kamco said.

“It is important to highlight that prior to this uptick, US inflation had been on a generally downward trajectory. Similarly, inflation in the Eurozone rose in June-2025, reaching 2.0 percent, down from 2.5 percent in June-2024 but slightly higher than May-2025’s rate of 1.9 percent. The Services sector experienced the highest y-o-y growth at 3.3 percent, followed by the Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco category, which rose by 3.1 percent,” it added.

Earlier in July, Kamco Invest said that foreign investors sharply increased their exposure to Gulf stock markets in the second quarter of 2025, with net inflows surging 50 percent compared to the previous three months to reach $4.2 billion. 

The momentum extended the streak of net foreign inflows into GCC equities to six consecutive quarters, with total net purchases in the first half of 2025 rising 39.8 percent year on year to $7 billion. 


Closing Bell: TASI ends in red at 10,823 

Closing Bell: TASI ends in red at 10,823 
Updated 29 July 2025

Closing Bell: TASI ends in red at 10,823 

Closing Bell: TASI ends in red at 10,823 

RIYADH: Ƶ’s Tadawul All Share Index closed Tuesday’s trading session at 10,823.91, marking a decline of 61.41 points, or 0.56 percent. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index reached SR4.41 billion ($1.17 billion), with 52 stocks advancing and 199 retreating. 

The MSCI Tadawul Index also declined, dropping 5.36 points, or 0.38 percent, to close at 1,394.05.  

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu fell by 55.39 points, or 0.21 percent, closing at 26,725.89. A total of 22 stocks advanced, while 51 declined. 

BAAN Holding Group Co. was the session’s top performer, with its share price rising 8.70 percent to close at SR2.50. 

Other notable gainers included Amlak International Finance Co., which rose 6.08 percent to SR12.04, and National Metal Manufacturing and Casting Co., up 2.28 percent to SR17.50.     

Amlak’s gains followed the release of its interim financial results for the period ending June 30, showing a 147.6 percent year-on-year increase in net profit to SR20.3 million. 

Mobile Telecommunication Co. Ƶ also recorded gains, with its share price increasing 1.96 percent to SR10.43.  

On the other end, Tourism Enterprise Co. recorded the steepest decline, with its shares falling 10 percent to SR0.99. 

Arabian Drilling Co. followed with a 9.98 percent drop to SR77.55 after announcing a 65 percent year-on-year decline in net profit to SR7 million for the second quarter ended June 30. 

The company stated on Tadawul that the profit decline was primarily due to a fall in rig utilization — down to 79 percent from 91 percent in the same period last year — and higher finance costs stemming from increased gross debt. This was partially offset by a one-off asset impairment recorded in the second quarter of 2024.  

United Carton Industries Co. also posted a notable decline of 7.48 percent, closing at SR31.42. 

Jamjoom Pharmaceuticals Factory Co. and Gulf General Cooperative Insurance Co. posted losses of 4.38 percent and 4.16 percent, closing at SR161.40 and SR5.07, respectively. 


Dubai International Airport sets H1 passenger record with 46m travelers

Dubai International Airport sets H1 passenger record with 46m travelers
Updated 29 July 2025

Dubai International Airport sets H1 passenger record with 46m travelers

Dubai International Airport sets H1 passenger record with 46m travelers
  • Average monthly traffic during the first half stood at 7.7 million passengers
  • DXB handled 222,000 flights and processed 41.8 million bags in the first half

RIYADH: Dubai International Airport handled 46 million passengers in the first half of 2025, marking its busiest six-month period on record despite regional airspace disruptions and global headwinds. 

In a press release, operator Dubai Airports said the 2.3 percent year-on-year increase underscores the continued strength of the emirate’s aviation sector and the terminal’s operational resilience. 

The growth came despite temporary airspace restrictions in May and June, which forced several Gulf carriers to reroute flights and adjust schedules due to heightened military activity and no-fly zone declarations in parts of the Middle East. 

Paul Griffiths, CEO of Dubai Airports, said: “DXB’s continued growth through a period of regional challenges highlights the strength of Dubai and the UAE, the agility of our operations, and the commitment of our airport community.” 

In the second quarter alone, the airport handled 22.5 million passengers, a 3.1 percent increase over the same period last year. April was the busiest month of the quarter and the most active April on record, with 8 million travelers. 

Average monthly traffic during the first half stood at 7.7 million passengers, with daily volumes averaging 254,000. January was the busiest month, setting a new monthly record with 8.5 million passengers. 

DXB also handled 222,000 flights and processed 41.8 million bags in the first half, with 91 percent delivered within 45 minutes of arrival. The mishandled baggage rate stood at 2 bags per 1,000 passengers, well below the industry average of 6.3, the release added. 

“As we enter the second half of the year, travel activity is expected to accelerate, beginning with the late-summer peak and leading into a winter season filled with high-profile events across entertainment, sport, and business,” said Griffiths. 

He said the Dubai Airshow 2025 will be a standout event, poised to break previous records and highlight the bold vision driving the future of aviation and aerospace. 

“Based on our performance to date and a positive outlook, we expect the annual traffic to reach 96 million this year, bringing us closer to the symbolic 100 million milestone,” added Griffiths. 

India remained DXB’s top market in the first half of the year, with 5.9 million passengers, followed by Ƶ with 3.6 million. The UK accounted for 3 million passengers, while Pakistan and the US recorded 2.1 million and 1.6 million, respectively. 

London was the busiest city destination with 1.8 million passengers, followed by Riyadh, Mumbai, Jeddah, New Delhi, and Istanbul. 

DXB also processed more than 1 million tonnes of cargo during the first half of 2025, a 0.1 percent increase compared with the same period last year. The airport is connected to more than 269 destinations in over 107 countries and is served by 92 international carriers.