Ƶ

Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh

Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh
Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 9:23 a.m. Saudi time. Shutterstock
Short Url
Updated 06 May 2025

Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh

Oil Updates — crude climbs $1 as price drop triggers buying; oversupply worries weigh

SINGAPORE: Oil gained more than $1 per barrel on Tuesday, rebounding on technical factors and bargain hunting after a decision by OPEC+ to boost output sent prices down the previous session, although concerns about the market surplus outlook persisted.

Brent crude futures rose $1.15 to $61.38 a barrel by 9:23 a.m. Saudi time, the first time gain after six consecutive declines, while US West Texas Intermediate crude added $1.11 to $58.24 a barrel.

Both benchmarks had settled at their lowest since February 2021 on Monday, driven by an OPEC+ decision over the weekend to further speed up oil production hikes for a second consecutive month.

“Today’s slight rebound in oil prices appears more technical than fundamental,” said Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG. “Persistent headwinds including a pivotal shift in OPEC+ production strategy, uncertain demand amid US tariff risks, and price forecast downgrades are continuing to weigh on the broader price movement.”

Driven by expectations that production will exceed consumption, oil has lost over 10 percent in six straight sessions and dipped over 20 percent since April when US President Donald Trump’s tariff shocks prompted increased bets on a slowdown in the global economy.

The return of Chinese market participants after a five-day public holiday since May 1 was seen supporting prices on Tuesday.

“China also reopened today, and being the largest importer, buyers would have likely jumped to secure oil at current low levels,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

Also lending some support was data showing a pick-up in services sector’s growth in the US, the world’s major oil consumer, as orders increased.

The Institute for Supply Management said on Monday its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index  increased to 51.6 last month from 50.8 in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the services PMI dipping to 50.2.

The US Federal Reserve will likely leave interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as tariffs roil the economic outlook.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude forecast on Monday by $4 to $70 a barrel for 2025 and set its 2026 estimate at $62 a barrel, citing “a rocky road ahead for fundamentals” amid escalating trade tensions and OPEC+’s pivot in its production strategy.

Goldman Sachs also lowered its oil price forecast on Monday by $2-3 per barrel, as they now expect another 400,000 barrels per day production increase by OPEC+ in July. 


World Bank raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%

World Bank raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%
Updated 07 October 2025

World Bank raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%

World Bank raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%

RIYADH: The World Bank has raised Ƶ’s 2025 economic growth forecast to 3.2 percent, citing stronger oil output and robust non-oil activity, marking a notable upgrade from the 2.8 percent projected in April. 

The Washington-based lender said in its latest Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan Economic Update that the Kingdom’s economy expanded 3.9 percent in the first half of 2025, buoyed by increased oil production and sustained growth in services.

The pace is set to quicken further, with growth expected to reach 4.3 percent in 2026 and 4.4 percent in 2027. 

The World Bank’s latest outlook aligns with projections from other institutions. The International Monetary Fund in July forecast Ƶ’s economy to grow 3.6 percent this year and 3.9 percent in 2026, while the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in September raised its 2026 estimate for the Kingdom to 3.9 percent, from 2.5 percent previously. 

“In Ƶ, real GDP grew by 3.9 percent during the first half of 2025 and is forecast to grow by 3.2 percent for all of 2025. This is a major increase from the 2 percent growth rate of 2024 — driven by oil production expansion and strong non-oil sector growth, particularly for services,” said the World Bank in the latest report. 

Regional outlook 

Economic growth in the Middle East region is projected to expand by 2.8 percent this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the forecast made in April. 

Across the Gulf Cooperation Council region, overall growth is expected to reach 3.5 percent in 2025, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous estimate. The bloc’s economy is projected to expand by 4.4 percent in 2026 and 4.7 percent in 2027. 

The World Bank noted that GCC countries will benefit from the gradual phasing out of voluntary oil production cuts and continued growth in non-oil industries. 

“Oil-importing countries are also expected to see economic improvements, thanks to private spending and investments as well as a rebound in agriculture and tourism,” the report added. 

In September, Ƶ’s Ministry of Tourism announced that the Saudi Summer program welcomed more than 32 million domestic and international tourists, up 26 percent from the 2024 season. Tourist spending reached SR53.2 billion ($14.2 billion), marking a 15 percent year-on-year increase. 
 
The report also projected the UAE’s GDP to grow by 4.8 percent this year, accelerating to 5 percent in 2026 and 5.1 percent in 2027.

Qatar’s economy is forecast to expand by 2.8 percent in 2025, while Bahrain and Kuwait are expected to grow 3.5 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively. Oman’s GDP is set to rise 3.1 percent in 2025 and 3.6 percent in 2026. 

Ƶ is also expected to maintain a healthy inflation rate of 2.3 percent in 2025 and 2.2 percent in 2026. Inflation in the wider Middle East and North Africa region is projected to remain contained at 2.3 percent in both years. 

Labor market and reforms 

The World Bank emphasized that countries in the MENAAP region could enhance living standards by tapping into the full potential of their workforce, particularly through greater female labor force participation. 

Ƶ has made notable strides in this area, steadily diversifying its workforce. In October 2024, Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said the Kingdom aims to achieve 40 percent female workforce participation by the end of the decade, having already surpassed its Vision 2030 target of 30 percent. 

The report noted that Ƶ has recorded one of the world’s fastest gains in women’s workforce participation, rising nearly 14 percentage points between 2017 and 2023. 

“The surge was evident across all age groups, and gains were especially pronounced among groups of women who historically had low participation and represented a small share of the labor force,” the World Bank noted. 


Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion
Updated 07 October 2025

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.5% in Q2 as non-oil sectors lead expansion

RIYADH: Bahrain’s economy expanded 2.5 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, fueled by robust non-oil activity that continued to anchor growth, official data showed. 

The Information and eGovernment Authority and the Ministry of Finance and National Economy reported that non-oil sectors grew 3.5 percent, accounting for over 85 percent of real gross domestic product, the Bahrain News Agency reported. 

Bahrain’s performance builds on reforms under the Economic Recovery Plan, launched in October 2021 to accelerate post-pandemic growth and fiscal sustainability as part of the Economic Vision 2030 strategy. 

It also aligns with broader regional trends, as Gulf economies sustain steady non-oil expansion. 

“The Kingdom continues to achieve notable progress in international economic and development indicators, reflecting the success of its economic diversification strategies and efforts to enhance the business environment,” BNA reported. 

The latest figures showed that professional, scientific, and technical services led the upturn with a 12 percent increase, followed by wholesale and retail trade up 6.7 percent, and real estate rising 4.7 percent. 

Accommodation and food services advanced 4.6 percent, while gains were also recorded in information and communications, construction, finance, and manufacturing, underscoring broad-based momentum outside hydrocarbons. 

Foreign investment indicators strengthened alongside output. Inward foreign direct investment stock increased 5.4 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025 to 17.5 billion Bahraini dinars ($46.4 billion), reflecting continued capital inflows into the non-oil economy. 

The second quarter’s growth builds on a solid first-quarter outturn, when Bahrain’s real GDP rose 2.7 percent year on year, underpinned by a 2.2 percent expansion in non-oil activity and a 5.3 percent rise in oil output, according to official data. 

In nominal terms, GDP increased 3 percent, with the non-oil and oil sectors up 2.8 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. Non-oil industries remained the economy’s anchor, contributing 84.8 percent to real GDP. 

Bahrain ranked first among Arab countries in Gallup’s Global Safety Report 2025 Law and Order Index, with 90 percent of respondents reporting feeling safe at night. 

The country recorded the largest improvement in the North Africa and Western Asia region in the Global Innovation Index 2025, climbing 10 places. 

It also ranked fifth in the 2025 Greenfield FDI Performance Index and fifth in the Finance Skills Indicator in the IMD World Talent Ranking. 

Across the Gulf in the second quarter of the year, Ƶ’s GDP rose 3.9 percent year on year, Abu Dhabi’s economy grew 3.8 percent, driven by a 6.6 percent rise in non-oil sectors, and Oman recorded 2.1 percent growth, supported by diversified activity — highlighting continued regional momentum in economic diversification efforts. 


ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 

ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 
Updated 07 October 2025

ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 

ITFC lends Djibouti $90m to strengthen energy security 

JEDDAH: Djibouti’s energy security will receive a major boost as the International Islamic Trade Finance Corp. signs a $90 million syndicated facility to support the country’s procurement of refined petroleum products. 

The deal, signed by ITFC Chief Operating Officer Nazeem Noordali and Djibouti’s Minister of Economy and Finance Ilyas Moussa Dawaleh, will enable the Société Internationale des Hydrocarbures de Djibouti to finance the procurement of essential fuel imports. 

The facility forms part of ITFC’s broader engagement with Djibouti under a $600 million three-year framework agreement signed in 2023. That accord aims to strengthen key sectors, including energy, agriculture, health, and private enterprise. 

Commenting on the agreement, Noordali stated: “Djibouti’s economic potential is closely tied to the strength of its energy sector, and substantial investment is essential to unlocking that potential. ITFC reinforces its commitment to supporting Djibouti’s energy security and sustainable growth through this new facility.” 

He added: “We are pleased to strengthen our long-standing partnership with Djibouti and help bolster SIHD’s ability to successfully deliver on its mandate of securing the country’s supply of oil products. We remain dedicated to advancing Djibouti’s economic development and will continue channeling funding where it creates the greatest impact.” 

The transaction follows a $90 million Murabaha financing agreement concluded in February 2024 for a similar purpose, also executed with SIHD. At that time, ITFC reported total approvals of $1.6 billion for Djibouti across 33 operations in energy and health.

Djibouti, located along one of the world’s busiest shipping routes at the mouth of the Red Sea, relies heavily on imported petroleum products to meet its domestic energy demand. 

The country’s government has prioritized securing reliable fuel supplies to sustain economic growth, particularly as it positions itself as a logistics and maritime hub for East Africa. 

Since 2008, the Jeddah-based multilateral lender — a member of the Islamic Development Bank Group — has extended $1.7 billion in financing and capacity-building support to Djibouti. 

The new deal is expected to enhance the country’s fuel security, sustain electricity generation, and support trade among Organization of Islamic Cooperation member states. 


Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to Ƶ

Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to Ƶ
Updated 06 October 2025

Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to Ƶ

Pakistan plans to double manpower exports to Ƶ

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is planning to double its manpower exports to Ƶ after the signing of a landmark defense deal between the two countries last month, officials told Arab News on Monday.

The country’s human resource exports to Ƶ have already witnessed a steady rise over the past five years, according to the Bureau of Emigration & Overseas Employment. Pakistan sent 1.88 million workers to Ƶ between 2020 and 2024, up 21 percent from 1.56 million in 2015–2019.

Remittances from the Kingdom rose from $7.39 billion in 2020 to $8.59 billion in 2024, reflecting steady demand for Pakistani labor. In contrast, inflows from the United Arab Emirates fluctuated between $5.8 billion and $6.8 billion during the same period, while those from Qatar remained below $1 billion annually, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.

In September, both countries signed a landmark defense pact that is meant to enhance joint deterrence and deepen decades of military and security cooperation. Top Pakistani government officials, including National Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer, have said Islamabad and Riyadh will sign a wide-ranging economic pact in the follow up of the defense deal.

“The Saudi-Pakistan defense pact will have a great impact on manpower export. Current average export is around half a million workers per year, and from next year, we hope to double it to one million,” said Gul Akbar, a senior director at the BEOE.

The BEOE is working with officials of Pakistan’s Special Investment Facilitation Council, a civil-military body formed to boost investment, particularly from the Middle East, to make it possible through a number of steps, according to the official. The draft will be shared with Saudi officials by their Pakistani counterparts in upcoming meetings.

The Pakistan government on Sunday constituted a high-level committee comprising ministers and officials to oversee bilateral economic engagements and negotiations with Ƶ.

Akbar said Pakistan has proposed setting up technical training institutes in both countries to improve skill certification and employability of local workforce.

“We are also proposing an e-visa system for Pakistani workers,” he added.

The Kingdom remains the largest destination for Pakistani workers and the biggest source of remittances that amounted to $736.7 million in Aug. out of a total inflow of $3.1 billion, according to the SBP.

Experts link the rise in number of Pakistani workers traveling to Ƶ to ongoing development projects in the Kingdom under its Vision 2030, which they say have created strong demand for skilled and semi-skilled foreign labor.

Ƶ’s hosting of the 2034 FIFA World Cup is further fueling demand for foreign labor, amid construction of large stadiums, transport networks and hospitality infrastructure in the Kingdom.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s human resource exports to the UAE declined sharply by 65 percent from 1.32 million to 463,000 from 2020 till 2024, while Qatar more than doubled its intake from 74,000 to 170,000 Pakistani workers, reflecting shifting labor dynamics across the Gulf region.

To meet Ƶ’s labor needs, Pakistan has partnered with Takamol, a Pakistani skill verification program, and its National Vocational and Technical Training Commission is certifying workers in 62 skilled categories, ranging from construction to technical services.

Speaking to Arab News, Masood Ahmad, CEO of M.Pak Makkah Manpower Services, said his firm alone dispatched 2,000 workers to Ƶ this year.

“The defense pact has boosted Saudi employers’ confidence in Pakistani workers as both countries deepen cooperation,” he said, highlighting a growing demand for health care professionals and delivery drivers.

Akbar dismissed concerns about “brain drain” and called overseas employment a “national achievement.” Pakistan’s surplus labor should be seen as an economic resource that brings home remittances, knowledge and technical skills, he added.

Remittances remain a cornerstone of Pakistan’s external finances, providing hard currency that supports household consumption, narrows the current-account deficit, and strengthens foreign exchange reserves.

In the last fiscal year, Pakistan recorded $38.3 billion workers’ remittances — an $8 billion increase from the previous year, surpassing the country’s $7 billion International Monetary Fund loan program.


Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with Ƶ

Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with Ƶ
Updated 06 October 2025

Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with Ƶ

Pakistan forms high-level committee to lead economic negotiations with Ƶ
  • Body formed weeks after Pakistan and Ƶ sign landmark mutual defense pact

ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan government has constituted a high-level committee to steer bilateral economic engagements and negotiations with Ƶ, according to an official notification issued by the prime minister’s office on Sunday.

It is widely believed that Islamabad and Riyadh will sign a wide-ranging economic pact as early as this month, weeks after they inked a mutual defense pact, significantly strengthening a decades-old security partnership. 

Pakistan’s alliance with Ƶ — the site of Islam’s holiest sites — is rooted in shared faith, strategic interests and economic interdependence. Nearly 2.6 million Pakistanis live and work in Ƶ and are also the largest source of remittances to the South Asian nation.

Pakistan has pushed in recent months to strengthen trade and investment ties with friendly nations, particularly the Kingdom, which has promised a $5 billion investment package that cash-strapped Pakistan desperately needs to shore up foreign reserves and fight a chronic balance of payment crisis. 

According to the PM office notification, the committee will be co-chaired by Minister for Climate Change Musadik Masood Malik and Lt. Gen. Sarfraz Ahmad, National Coordinator of the Special Investment Facilitation Council, a civil-military body that oversees foreign investments. 

“The Co-Chairs shall constitute Core/Negotiation Teams for negotiations with the Saudi counterparts. These teams shall be responsible for implementing and executing the assigned tasks on fast-track basis,” the notification said. 

It further noted that all members and representatives would ensure availability from Oct. 6 onwards and that the PM has directed the SIFC to process members’ travel approvals “within one hour the same working day.”

The committee has been tasked to submit progress reports to the Prime Minister on a fortnightly basis, with the SIFC Secretariat providing administrative support.

Other members of the committee include Minister for Economic Affairs Ahad Khan Cheema, Minister for Power Awais Leghari, Minister for Commerce Jam Kamal Khan, Minister for National Food Security & Research Rana Tanveer Hussain, Minister for Communications Abdul Aleem Khan, Minister for Information Technology & Telecommunication Shaza Fatima Khawaja, and Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Industries & Production Haroon Akhtar Khan, among others.

Bilateral trade between Pakistan and Ƶ remains highly imbalanced, with Saudi exports to Pakistan vastly exceeding Pakistani exports in recent years. In 2023, Ƶ’s exports to Pakistan were estimated at approximately $4.65 billion, while Pakistan’s exports to Ƶ were much smaller, such as about $138 million in rice among other goods. 

In 2024, Pakistan’s total exports to Ƶ stood at around $734 million, with major items including cereals and meat, while Saudi exports to Pakistan included refined petroleum and chemical products. 

Last October, Pakistani and Saudi business communities signed 34 MoUs worth about $2.8 billion during a visit by a Saudi investment delegation. It is unclear how many of those MoUs have been converted into active projects or contracts in a year.