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Pakistan stocks record single-day gain, bonds rally after ceasefire with India, IMF tranche approval

Pakistan stocks record single-day gain, bonds rally after ceasefire with India, IMF tranche approval
A stock broker records video on his phone during a trading session at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) in Karachi on April 7, 2025. (AFP/File)
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Updated 12 May 2025

Pakistan stocks record single-day gain, bonds rally after ceasefire with India, IMF tranche approval

Pakistan stocks record single-day gain, bonds rally after ceasefire with India, IMF tranche approval
  • Pakistan and India last week traded air, ground and drone strikes, leading to aggressive selloffs by investors
  • On Monday, Pakistani rupee marked first gain since the start of May as Pakistan’s dollar bonds rose 5.7 cents

KARACHI: Pakistan’s stocks rose more than 9 percent, the highest single-day gain in decades, and its international bonds rallied on Monday, analysts said, following a ceasefire with India and the approval of $1 billion tranche by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) suffered losses in the last three sessions since India struck multiple Pakistani cities with missiles on Wednesday. Pakistan responded with fighter jet, drone and artillery strikes and four days of conflict between the two sides came to a halt on Saturday evening after the United States announced a surprise ceasefire.
On Monday, the benchmark KSE-100 index rose by 9.45 percent, or 10,123 points, to close at 117, 297 points, compared to Friday’s close of 107,174 points. The country’s currency and international bonds also surged, paring their losses since tensions rose with India over an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22.
“The highest single-day gain in almost three decades comes after the ceasefire announcement of India and Pakistan,” Shankar Talreja, head of research at Karachi-based Topline Securities brokerage firm, told Arab News.
The KSE-30 index, which includes the top 30 most liquid companies, increased about 9.7 percent during the intraday trade, forcing the bourse to halt trading at 9:37am Pakistan time for an hour.
The geopolitical tensions had led to aggressive selloffs and fueled widespread investor concerns at the bourse which lost more than 12 percent between April 22 and May 8.
Monday’s rally triggered the upper circuit breaker for the second time in the PSX’s history since July 2023, according to Adnan Sami Sheikh, an analyst at Pakistan Qatar Investment Company Ltd. The otherwise risk-averse investors went on a buying frenzy primarily on the back of a US-brokered ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan.
“Local individual investors who had been net sellers in the recent past were aggressive buyers,” Talreja said, adding that according to Bloomberg-compiled data, PSX had become the world’s third best performing stock index over the last one year.
The other factor behind Monday’s rally was the IMF’s approval of $1.4 billion loan to Pakistan under its climate resilience fund, and the release of a $1 billion as part of the country’s $7 billion bailout program secured in Sept. last year, taking the total disbursements under the program to $2.1 billion, according to analysts.
The much-awaited inflows will boost the cash-strapped nation’s foreign exchange reserves, which Islamabad seeks to increase to $14 billion by June. The IMF, which the once-near-default Islamabad has visited frequently in recent years, wants Pakistan to hold enough dollars for at least three months of imports.
PAKISTANI RUPEE AND BONDS
Pakistan’s currency marked the first gain in the last seven sessions this month and rose 0.1 percent, with the US dollar closing at Rs281.57, according to the State Bank of Pakistan.
The rupee had devalued 0.3 percent since last month, when Pakistan’s now-de-escalating border tensions with India had first resurfaced.
The South Asian nation’s global bonds also rallied sharply and rose as much as 5.7 cents globally, Reuters news agency reported, citing Tradeweb data. Most of the bond maturities have clawed back the losses sustained since April 22.
“The investors are now perceiving lower country risk premium for Pakistan,” Talreja added.
Commenting on the developments, Pakistan’s finance adviser Khurram Schehzad said the South Asian nation has much more to offer.
He said positives like the IMF board’s approval, declining interest rate, spillover effect of a potential settlement of the US-China tariff issue, and Pakistan’s “measured and responsible” response in terms of narrative and the actions on ground against India have caught the attention of investors.
“Renewed investor confidence...enhanced IMF funding and support, renewed regional investor interest, one of the lowest inflation rates and stable currency parities in the region all position Pakistan for a more meaningful economic upside moving forward,” he said.


Ƶ leads surge as Pakistan’s May remittances hit $3.7 billion

Ƶ leads surge as Pakistan’s May remittances hit $3.7 billion
Updated 20 sec ago

Ƶ leads surge as Pakistan’s May remittances hit $3.7 billion

Ƶ leads surge as Pakistan’s May remittances hit $3.7 billion
  • Inflows bring total remittances for July-May FY2024-25 to $34.9 billion, a 28.8 percent increase from $27.1 billion in same period last year
  • Ƶ remained largest contributor in May, sending $913.9 million, followed by UAE ($754.2 million), UK ($588.1 million), US ($314.7 million)

KARACHI: Pakistan received $3.7 billion in workers’ remittances in May 2025, a strong 16 percent increase month-on-month and 13.7 percent year-on-year, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) said on Wednesday, with Ƶ remaining the largest contributor, sending $913.9 million.

The inflows brought total remittances for July-May FY2024-25 to $34.9 billion, marking a 28.8 percent increase from $27.1 billion in the same period last year. The rise follows a record breaking $4.1 billion in March, the highest-ever single-month inflow, and a robust $3.2 billion in April. 

The strong performance has helped offset Pakistan’s trade deficit and support its fragile foreign exchange reserves amid continued macroeconomic pressure.

“This is the highest level of remittances recorded in recent months,” the SBP said in a statement, noting that the increase reflected stronger flows from key corridors and a growing shift toward formal remittances channels. 

Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of factors, including improved exchange rate management, government crackdowns on hawala and hundi informal systems for transferring money internationally, and seasonal flows during Ramadan and Eid.

Ƶ remained the largest contributor in May, sending $913.9 million, followed by the United Arab Emirates ($754.2 million), the United Kingdom ($588.1 million), and the United States ($314.7 million).

Remittances remain a critical source of foreign exchange for Pakistan, which is currently under a $7 billion IMF program and facing over $24 billion in external debt repayments over the next fiscal year.

The central bank has raised its full-year remittance forecast to $38 billion, reflecting optimism that flows will continue to support economic stabilization.

The surging remittances, especially from Ƶ, help cushion Pakistan’s chronic current‑account deficit and bolster its foreign exchange reserves, offering relief ahead of major debt repayments. With global commodity prices still volatile and external financing constrained, continued inflows from overseas workers, particularly from the Gulf, are seen as crucial to maintaining macroeconomic stability and supporting Pakistan’s growth outlook under IMF conditions.


‘Soaring in the air’: Returning Pakistani Hajj pilgrims praise spiritual experience despite intense heat

‘Soaring in the air’: Returning Pakistani Hajj pilgrims praise spiritual experience despite intense heat
Updated 27 min 56 sec ago

‘Soaring in the air’: Returning Pakistani Hajj pilgrims praise spiritual experience despite intense heat

‘Soaring in the air’: Returning Pakistani Hajj pilgrims praise spiritual experience despite intense heat
  • Pakistani pilgrims laud Saudi Hajj arrangements as post-Hajj flight operation begins
  • About 1,500 Pakistani pilgrims are scheduled to return to various cities on June 11

ISLAMABAD: Pakistani pilgrims returning from Ƶ on Wednesday praised the smooth organization and facilities provided during this year’s Hajj, despite facing intense heat in the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah.

Pakistan’s post-Hajj flight operation began with the arrival of PIA flight PK732 in Islamabad earlier in the day, carrying 307 pilgrims. According to the Ministry of Religious Affairs, a total of seven flights are scheduled to transport 1,496 pilgrims to Islamabad, Lahore, Multan and Karachi on the first day of the repatriation operation.

“A total of seven flights carrying 1,496 pilgrims will land on June 11, while the post-Hajj flight operation will conclude on July 10 with the last flight landing in Islamabad,” Muhammad Umer Butt, spokesperson for the religious affairs ministry, informed.

Speaking to Arab News at Islamabad International Airport, returning pilgrims praised the Hajj experience, describing it as spiritually uplifting and logistically smooth, crediting the Saudi authorities for their efforts.

“It [Hajj] was very good and an amazing experience,” said Muhammad Waseem from Attock. “It was very hot, but the Saudi government had made good arrangements— there was water and fans everywhere.”

He said the Saudi authorities had taken excellent care of the pilgrims and ensured things remained smooth.

Those who followed their group schedules found the experience far less strenuous, he continued.

“Only those people got tired and faced difficulties who did not follow their scheduled timings fixed by the authorities for different groups for the Hajj rituals,” he noted.

Abdul Malik, a pilgrim from Lakki Marwat in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, echoed similar sentiments.

“The arrangements were very good,” he said. “When Allah calls a person to visit His House and the Mosque of His Prophet [PBUH], it feels as if the person is soaring in the air. Such is the feeling which cannot be described in words.”

Samina Bibi from Islamabad called her Hajj deeply spiritual and fulfilling.

“My experience of Hajj was very good and I prayed for everyone, including all the Muslims,” she said. “Only Allah Almighty can understand my feelings during Hajj.”

Bibi informed it was her second visit to the Holy Places, having previously performed Umrah, and found the arrangements to be “very good.”

Abdul Haq, another pilgrim from Islamabad, reflected on the ease with which his journey unfolded.

“When I intended to perform Hajj, after that, Allah made everything easy upon easy, and we prayed for everyone including Muslims sitting in front of the Holy Kaaba,” he said. “The arrangements made by the Saudi government were excellent. We faced no difficulties during Hajj.”

While he acknowledged the natural hardships due to the heat in Mina and Muzdalifah, Haq said the experience remained “smooth and truly unforgettable.”

“In Hajj, there were not really difficulties, but there is hardship, mainly due to the heat,” he added. “However, overall, our Hajj was so wonderful that it’s beyond words, and we kept thanking the Saudi government for all the arrangements throughout.”

This year’s Hajj pilgrimage took place from June 4 to June 9, drawing millions of pilgrims to the holy cities.

Pakistan, which sent over 116,000 pilgrims under both government and private schemes, was among several countries managing large-scale contingents in the annual Islamic pilgrimage.


Pakistani deputy PM to attend UN moot on Palestine, reaffirming support for two-state solution

Pakistani deputy PM to attend UN moot on Palestine, reaffirming support for two-state solution
Updated 41 min 44 sec ago

Pakistani deputy PM to attend UN moot on Palestine, reaffirming support for two-state solution

Pakistani deputy PM to attend UN moot on Palestine, reaffirming support for two-state solution
  • Visit underscores Islamabad’s continued diplomatic support for Palestinian cause amid latest Israeli military offensive in Gaza
  • Conference comes amid renewed international efforts to revive stalled negotiations and de-escalate tensions in the region

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will travel to New York next week to attend a high-level United Nations conference on the peaceful settlement of the Palestinian question, the Foreign Office said on Tuesday.

The International Conference on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution will take place at the UN headquarters from June 17-19.

The visit underscores Islamabad’s continued diplomatic support for the Palestinian cause amid the latest Israeli military offensive in Gaza, which began in October 2023. Around 54,000 people have been killed in the besieged enclave since, mostly women and children.

“DPM/FM shall be traveling to US to attend High-Level Segment of the International Conference on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution to be held at UN New York from 17-19 June 2025,” the Foreign Office said in a brief statement.

During his visit, Dar is expected to meet with counterparts from other member states and reaffirm Pakistan’s call for an immediate ceasefire, unimpeded humanitarian access, and a just and lasting resolution to the conflict in line with UN and OIC resolutions.

The conference comes amid renewed international efforts to revive stalled negotiations and de-escalate tensions in the region.

Pakistan has long advocated for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as the capital of an independent Palestinian state.

Islamabad does not recognize Israel and has consistently condemned Israeli military actions in Gaza, especially following Israel’s latest offensive in response to Hamas-led attacks in late 2023, which have resulted in widespread casualties and a humanitarian crisis.


FY26 budget: Markets rally, analysts welcome fiscal plan, business chambers voice mixed views

FY26 budget: Markets rally, analysts welcome fiscal plan, business chambers voice mixed views
Updated 51 min 36 sec ago

FY26 budget: Markets rally, analysts welcome fiscal plan, business chambers voice mixed views

FY26 budget: Markets rally, analysts welcome fiscal plan, business chambers voice mixed views
  • Experts broadly welcomed Pakistan’s budget for 2025-26 as “balanced” attempt at fiscal consolidation and economic stimulus
  • Business unions say budget won’t spur industrialization or export growth without structural reforms and reduction in energy costs

KARACHI: Analysts, investors and key business chambers on Wednesday broadly welcomed Pakistan’s federal budget for 2025-26 as a “balanced” attempt at fiscal consolidation and economic stimulus, though they raised concerns about the achievability of the government’s ambitious growth target of 4.2 percent and heavy reliance on existing taxpayers.

Presenting the federal budget on Tuesday, the government announced a range of tax reforms, spending priorities, and incentives aimed at maintaining its ongoing $7 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan program while also trying to revive investor sentiment and ease pressure on the salaried class.

“The budget announced by the government yesterday [Tuesday] was pretty much in line with what we were expecting, a balanced budget,” said Sana Tawfik, head of research at Arif Habib Ltd, a major Pakistani financial services company.

“The government tried to ensure that the reforms being undertaken currently are on track and Pakistan continues with the fiscal consolidation phase.”

Tawfik was pointing to several key ongoing fiscal and structural reforms that align with Pakistan’s commitments under the IMF program and broader efforts to stabilize the economy.

These include fiscal consolidation through broadening the tax base, rationalizing subsidies, and phasing out tax exemptions; revenue mobilization though increased taxation on interest income, a phased reduction in the super tax and the removal of certain tax exemptions to improve revenue collection; and debt rationalization by managing debt servicing costs, likely by shifting to more concessional financing and restructuring high-cost debt.

While presenting the budget, the government also maintained it would continue its focus on providing relief to the salaried class and try to strike a balance between austerity with social protections.

This handout photograph taken on June 10, 2025, and released by Pakistan's National Assembly shows Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presenting the 2025–26 fiscal budget at the Parliament House in Islamabad. (AFP)

Tawfik agreed that the government had attempted to strike such a balance between providing relief and raising revenue, citing relief measures for the salaried class in the budget and the phased reduction in super tax.

“The government tried to make sure that we continue with the reforms that we have undertaken in the recent past, while ensuring that we meet the targets set for the upcoming fiscal year,” Tawfik said.

UNREALISTIC GROWTH TARGET?

However, Tawfik was skeptical of the government’s 4.2 percent GDP growth target, calling it “unrealistic” in the current economic context.

“Agriculture has been underperforming, and industries have not been performing due to the high cost of doing business. While we have seen interest rates coming down, agriculture would be the key sector to look forward to,” she said.

Arif Habib Ltd. has forecast GDP growth of around 3.6 percent for FY26, below the government’s target.

Tawfik also noted that while the government had projected inflation at 7.5 percent, her team expected it to be slightly lower, around 6 percent to 6.5 percent, although risks remained from global commodity prices, exchange rate pressures and the fading base effect.

She also flagged a projected current account deficit for FY26, in contrast to a surplus of $1.5 billion expected this fiscal year, citing pent-up demand and increased imports.

Muhammad Waqas Ghani, head of research at JS Global Capital Ltd., echoed the sentiment that the budget was more “measured” compared to previous years.

“In the last two years, we’ve seen very strict budgets. This time, the government has been a little lenient. We’ve seen reform measures but also some relaxations,” Ghani said.

He pointed to tax relief for the salaried class and incentives for the construction sector, though he noted that the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) allocation had decreased.

Corporate employees watching television screens as Pakistan Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb presents Pakistan’s $62 billion federal budget for fiscal year 2025–26, in Islamabad on June 10, 2025. (APP)

“There are many allied industries that benefit when we see measures taken for construction,” he said, while noting a less favorable outcome for the auto sector.

Ghani acknowledged the government’s target of a 2.4 percent primary surplus as “optimistic,” but achievable, and described the overall budget as “laying the groundwork” for sustained economic growth.

On the 4.2 percent GDP target, he noted:

“It’s an optimistic target… but with interest rates coming down, we hopefully will see contribution from [agriculture and industrial] segments, and we can get closer to the target.”

STRONG SUPPORT FROM EQUITY MARKETS

While the budget drew applause for investor-friendly policies and efforts toward macroeconomic stability, analysts cautioned that delivery on ambitious fiscal and growth targets remained key to sustaining momentum.

The stock market, however, responded positively from the opening bell.

“As soon as the market started today [Wednesday], it rallied close to 1,400 points,” Ghani said.

“We are in an IMF program and we’re seeing a decent budget this time. All of these things point to the fact that the market is going to reach new heights in the coming months.”

Indeed, despite macroeconomic challenges, the budget drew strong support from equity markets.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

“Measures we have seen so far are broadly positive for the stock market,” said Tawfik. “The government kept capital gains tax and dividend income tax unchanged, which the market had feared would be increased.”

Sector-specific measures were seen as favorable for cement, steel, and textile sectors, particularly with subsidies for low-cost housing and removal of sales tax exemptions for certain regions, which levels the playing field for local manufacturers.

“Intraday today, market has gone north of 124,000 points, and we have seen an intraday surge of 2,000 points,” Tawfik said.

DIVIDED BUSINESS COMMUNITY

The reaction from Pakistan’s business chambers, however, was more mixed.

Both the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), and the Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), warned that unless structural reforms were implemented and energy costs reduced, the budget may not succeed in spurring industrialization or export growth.

The FPCCI welcomed certain relief measures, particularly for the salaried class and property sector, but flagged concerns about revenue expectations.

“We welcome steps to end harassment of taxpayers,” said Atif Ikram Sheikh, President FPCCI, noting the simplified tax return form as a positive step.

However, he added: “The increase in tax collection target by Rs2,500 billion ($8.8 billion) is unrealistic.”

The FPCCI also expressed disappointment over the absence of support packages for key sectors such as IT, minerals, fishing, and e-commerce.

People walk past the Karachi Chamber of Commerce & Industry building in Karachi on May 4, 2024. (AN Photo/File)

The KCCI, by contrast, issued a harsh critique of the budget, calling it disconnected from ground realities.

“This is a camouflage budget,” said Zubair Motiwala, Chairman of the Businessmen Group (BMG) at KCCI. “There is no meaningful relief for the business community or the common man. Instead of reforms to expand the tax base, the government is squeezing existing taxpayers.”

KCCI President Muhammad Jawed Bilwani added:

“Electricity bills are unaffordable, interest rates are high, and there’s no relief for the industrial sector. Without addressing the cost of doing business, you cannot expect growth or job creation.”


In post-budget press conference, Pakistan finmin says tariff reforms key to export-led growth

In post-budget press conference, Pakistan finmin says tariff reforms key to export-led growth
Updated 11 June 2025

In post-budget press conference, Pakistan finmin says tariff reforms key to export-led growth

In post-budget press conference, Pakistan finmin says tariff reforms key to export-led growth
  • Muhammad Aurangzeb calls the tariff overhaul a major reform not seen in over 30 years
  • He says Pakistan needed to take such steps if it wanted to have an export-led economy

KARACHI: Federal Minister for Finance and Revenue Muhammad Aurangzeb on Wednesday underscored the significance of sweeping tariff reforms built into the federal budget, calling them a structural economic shift aimed at making exports more competitive and lowering the cost of importing raw materials to support export-led growth.

The minister highlighted the development during a post-budget press conference after presenting the finance bill in the National Assembly a day earlier. The proposed federal budget for FY2025-26 includes a total outlay of Rs17.57 trillion ($62 billion), while promising a 4.2% growth target and a reduction in the fiscal deficit to 3.9% of GDP.

Aurangzeb told journalists in Islamabad the government had removed additional customs duties on 4,000 out of 7,000 total tariff lines and reduced base customs duties on 2,700 tariff lines. Of these, 2,000 tariff lines are directly linked to raw materials and intermediate goods used by exporters.

“This is a big reform that has not been done over the last 30 years,” he said, adding the objective was to lower production costs for exporters and enable them to better compete in international markets.

“We are going to fundamentally change the DNA of the economy so that when we go toward growth, we don’t get into a dollar situation, we don’t get into a balance of payments problem,” he said. “We can continue to grow at a certain pace, which is export-led.”

Defending the reforms against criticism that they may lower revenue, the minister argued the long-term gains for the export sector outweigh short-term fiscal concerns.

“If we want an export-led economy, these are the steps we must take,” he added.

Aurangzeb also emphasized new legislation and enforcement tools, saying they were going to be key in plugging leaks and ensuring compliance.

“We have laws and taxes,” he said, “but without enforcement, they don’t work — and that’s what we’re focused on this year.”