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The Rohingya, a persecuted Muslim minority from Myanmar, face an escalating crisis in Bangladesh’s overcrowded refugee camps. More than a million Rohingya have fled genocide and violence in Rakhine State since 2017, seeking refuge in Cox’s Bazar, where they live in sprawling, makeshift settlements. These camps, among the most densely populated spaces on earth, are increasingly vulnerable to climate change.

Cyclones, floods and earthquakes threaten the region, while rising sea levels shrink Bangladesh’s landmass. Without urgent international investment in disaster preparedness, infrastructure and early warning systems — and without successful repatriation — the Rohingya will be among the first and most devastated victims of climate vulnerability.

Bangladesh, one of the world’s most densely populated countries, is on the front lines of climate change. Its low-lying delta geography makes it acutely susceptible to natural disasters. In recent years, the frequency and intensity of cyclones have increased, with storms like Cyclone Amphan (2020) and Cyclone Mora (2017) causing widespread destruction in Cox’s Bazar.

Flooding, triggered by monsoon rains and rising sea levels, is a recurring threat. The 2024 monsoon season alone displaced thousands in the camps, with flimsy shelters unable to withstand heavy rains. Adding to the peril, the region lies near tectonic fault lines, with recent earthquakes in the Bay of Bengal signaling growing seismic risks. For the Rohingya, living in bamboo and tarpaulin shelters on steep, deforested hillsides, these hazards are life-threatening.

The camps, home to more than 1.2 million people, are a humanitarian catastrophe waiting to worsen. Designed as temporary shelters, they lack the infrastructure to endure extreme weather. Narrow, muddy pathways become impassable during floods. Poor drainage systems exacerbate waterlogging, breeding disease in overcrowded conditions. Landslides, triggered by heavy rains, have already claimed lives. In 2023, a fire exacerbated by dry conditions and strong winds razed parts of Kutupalong camp, displacing thousands. These disasters expose the camps’ fragility, where even moderate climate events can cause disproportionate harm.

Rising sea levels compound the crisis. Bangladesh loses approximately 1 percent of its landmass annually to erosion and inundation, with coastal areas like Cox’s Bazar particularly at risk. By 2050, experts estimate that 17 percent of Bangladesh’s land could be submerged, displacing millions, including the Rohingya. For a community already confined to shrinking, flood-prone land, this is a death sentence unless drastic measures are taken.

The climate crisis disproportionately harms vulnerable populations like the Rohingya, who contribute negligibly to global emissions.

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

Repatriation to Myanmar remains the preferred long-term solution, but prospects are bleak. Myanmar’s junta, responsible for the Rohingya’s expulsion, shows no willingness to ensure safe returns. Political instability following the 2021 coup has further dimmed hopes. Two failed repatriation attempts in 2018 and 2019, boycotted by the Rohingya due to fears of continued persecution, underscore the challenge. Without a viable path to return, the Rohingya remain trapped in camps ill-equipped for the climate realities of the 21st century.

Bangladesh, despite its generosity in hosting the Rohingya, cannot address this crisis alone. The country faces its own climate adaptation challenges, with a gross domestic product per capita of just $2,800 and a population of 170 million. Resources are stretched thin. The government has invested in some camp improvements, such as concrete drainage channels and cyclone shelters, but these are insufficient for the scale of the threat. With 30,000 children born in the camps annually, the Rohingya population continues to grow. By 2030, the camps could house 1.5 million people, making the need for robust infrastructure urgent.

International support has been inadequate. In 2024, the UN’s Joint Response Plan for the Rohingya was only 37 percent funded, leaving critical gaps in food, healthcare and shelter. Disaster preparedness receives even less attention. Early warning systems, which could save lives by alerting residents to impending cyclones or floods, are rudimentary. Many Rohingya lack access to mobile networks or radios, while language barriers hinder communication. Infrastructure upgrades — elevated shelters, reinforced roads and reforestation to prevent landslides — require billions of dollars, far beyond Bangladesh’s capacity.

The international community must act swiftly. First, funding must prioritize climate-resilient infrastructure. Elevated, durable shelters can withstand floods and winds. Improved drainage and sanitation systems can mitigate disease outbreaks. Reforestation efforts can stabilize hillsides against landslides.

Second, early warning systems must be expanded. Solar-powered radios, multilingual alerts and community-based disaster training can empower Rohingya to respond to threats.

Third, renewable energy solutions, like solar microgrids, can reduce reliance on firewood, curbing deforestation and fire risks. These measures, while costly, are far cheaper than the human and economic toll of inaction.

Global powers, particularly wealthy nations with high carbon emissions, bear a moral responsibility. The climate crisis disproportionately harms vulnerable populations like the Rohingya, who contribute negligibly to global emissions. The US, EU and other G20 nations must lead funding efforts, not only through humanitarian aid but also through climate adaptation grants. Regional players, including India and China, should support diplomatic efforts to pressure Myanmar for safe repatriation while contributing to camp resilience.

The Rohingya crisis is a litmus test for global solidarity. If the world fails to act, the camps will become death traps, with cyclones, floods and earthquakes claiming countless lives. The Rohingya, already victims of genocide, will face a second injustice as climate refugees in a land not their own.

But with concerted international action — combining repatriation advocacy with massive investment in disaster preparedness — their suffering can be mitigated. The clock is ticking. The world must decide whether to let the Rohingya become climate change’s first high-profile casualty or to act with the urgency the situation demands.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim