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Historically, there have been periods when Turkiye and the Arab states were unable to harmonize their strategies and interests in the region. Political differences often overshadowed potential cooperation, and at times the Arab alliance failed to align with Turkiye’s regional interests. There were also rare moments when Turkish-Arab cooperation proved to be effective and mutually beneficial. However, it appears that a new Arab alliance is emerging in the region among the historic capitals of Damascus, Baghdad, and Beirut. In a parallel shift, Turkish-Arab cooperation is achieving significant momentum with a harmony that serves mutual interests.

The collapse of the Assad regime significantly influenced Syria’s position within the Arab world. Coinciding with this shift, Lebanon has entered a new phase, with the election of a new president and the appointment of a prime minister after a two-year political deadlock. Meanwhile, Iraq, for the first time in years, has been positioning itself as a regional actor, not only mediating disputes but also facilitating economic cooperation.

One common factor in the reemergence of these three countries in the Arab world order is the diminishing influence of Iran, which is particularly favorable for Ankara. Despite Ankara’s ability to compartmentalize its relations with Tehran, Turkiye has been among the regional countries most uncomfortable with Iranian proxies in the region, especially in Iraq and beyond. Therefore, a region free from Iranian control is a strategic win for Turkiye. Moreover, one key element of this era emerging in the region is the intent to integrate Iran through dialogue, not isolation. Thus, containing Iran through diplomacy, not confrontation is an approach that Turkish and Arab perspectives share today.

In Syria, the new government has been building strong political, economic, and defense ties with Ankara, marking a fresh chapter in Turkish-Syrian relations after more than a decade of hostility under the Assad regime. As Syria embarks on an uncertain path toward reintegration into the regional and international fold, there are some similarities with Iraq’s post-Saddam experience. The new Syrian administration is eager to avoid the same instability that Iraq faced after the fall of Saddam, and Turkiye is keen to prevent a repeat of the post-Saddam scenario in Syria.

Iran’s diminishing influence is particularly favorable for Ankara

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

The lack of a coherent strategy between Ankara and Arab capitals in the past contributed to the rise of Iranian influence in Iraq and the prolonging of the instability caused by this. Today, Syria’s path to stability has become a critical issue that aligns Turkish and Arab interests. Cooperation between Ankara and Arab powers could facilitate Syria’s reconstruction and re-emergence. Moreover, stability in Syria is likely to have a significant impact on neighboring Iraq and Lebanon.

In Iraq, the government led by Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani is shifting the country’s status from being a victim of foreign interference to a platform for regional cooperation. Under Al-Sudani’s leadership, Iraq is transforming its relationship with Turkiye from a security-oriented perspective to an economically integrated relationship. The launch of the “Development Road” initiative in 2023, following a meeting between Al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, marked a significant shift in Turkish-Iraqi relations, which had long been dominated by issues of border security, Turkiye’s conflict with Kurdish militants, and water resource management.

Although Lebanon was not always a central focus in Turkiye’s foreign policy, as Syria and Iraq have been, Turkiye now seems poised to deepen its relations with Lebanon, especially under the new government in Beirut. Turkiye is likely to play a crucial role in helping Lebanon integrate into new regional security and economic alliances.

Turkiye recognizes the emerging Arab alliance and sees it as an opportunity rather than a threat. With the collapse of the Assad regime, Ankara has increased its efforts to build bridges between Damascus, Baghdad, and Beirut. In Ankara, there is a growing understanding that a cooperative relationship between these three capitals not only serves Turkiye’s national security and economic interests but also promotes broader regional stability. Turkiye’s regional strategy, while still ambitious, is carefully calibrated to avoid provoking Arab backlash, as Ankara understands that cooperation with regional states is essential for Syria’s reconstruction, and for stability in Lebanon and Iraq.

There are shared concerns against disruptive forces in the region

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

This new era, which is driven by cooperation rather than ideological rivalries and military conflicts, was evident during the recent visit of US President Donald Trump to the region. Trump saw a region where intra-GCC collaboration is growing, Turkish-Gulf relations are being bolstered, and a new alliance among the region’s historic capitals is emerging.

Today, both international incentives and regional shifts are also in favor of Turkiye and the Arab states. The global powers, namely the US, Russia, and China, are either focusing on different priorities or are limited in their ability to play a key role in the Middle East. This power vacuum provides an opportunity for Turkiye and Arab states to help regional countries such as Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon empower themselves in this new order. Additionally, there are shared concerns against disruptive forces in the region, such as Israel, which seeks to see a weakened Syria, and terrorist groups, such as Daesh, which aims to destabilize both Syria and Iraq through its activities along the porous border between the two states.

A shared cooperative agenda between Turkiye and the closely aligned Arab states, particularly in security matters, would pave the way for closer political relations, mutually beneficial economic gains, and broader regional security cooperation. There is an urgent need to transform these newly emerging Arab alliances into institutionalized forms that will persist despite any regional shifts. For Ankara, this emerging Arab alliance comes at the right moment, with the right leaderships in place.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz