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Nine years ago this month, the UK narrowly voted to jettison its membership of the EU. Depending on your point of view, this was either the greatest act of self-harm perpetrated by a modern nation state or a long-overdue reclamation of a great nation’s sovereignty and independence. The political, economic and social fault lines that erupted were deep and painful, often akin to a hellish psychodrama.
Four years of negotiation, much of it between factions within the British Conservative Party, were required to set the terms of this divorce. As with many divorces, it was costly and bitter. It may not have been a happy marriage, with plenty of febrile squabbles, but separation was tough to take.
Now, five years after the exit deal came into effect, emotions have cooled and a more sober examination of the relationship has led to a reevaluation, not least with a more Europhile Labour Party in power. A second marriage is not on the cards, but a more civilized working relationship has been sought. All the arguments of old seem stale and irrelevant. Many Brexiteers have also had buyers’ remorse. Hence, a recent poll found that 62 percent of Britons see Brexit as more of a failure than a success, while 56 percent believe it was wrong to leave the EU.
Five years after Brexit, emotions have cooled and a more sober examination of the relationship has led to a reevaluation
Chris Doyle
This is the backdrop to the new deal signed in the middle of May. It realigned the UK-EU relationship, away from what many saw as a hard Brexit to something a little softer and closer. The electorate is broadly content to adhere to some EU rules and regulations if it means a closer economic relationship and easier access to the bloc’s market.
The security aspect of the deal was a no-brainer. The UK brings military capabilities the EU greatly needs and, with the threat of Russia ever-present, it makes sense for all parties. The isolationist position of the Trump administration and the increasing appeal of this approach in the US has only served to energize a desire for a more assertive European defense posture. There will be meetings every six months to discuss foreign and defense matters, which should return a degree of cooperation to such issues. At the security level, the two sides will share DNA samples and fingerprints, a move that is hard to object to.
Few nowadays dissent from the view that Brexit has been costly for the UK economically. The increased red tape and bureaucracy to export to the EU has been a massive burden for businesses. Many stopped bothering trying to export. This agreement envisages a reduction on checks on food exports to the EU, with most routine checks being dropped. The UK will now be able to sell raw burgers and sausages into the bloc for the first time since Brexit. The Starmer government claims this will benefit the UK economy by as much as £9 billion ($12 billion) a year by 2040.
Many will also welcome the arrangement to permit British holidaymakers to once again use e-gates at more European airports. This will probably not happen until the autumn.
A more politically challenging aspect is the youth experience scheme, which will permit young people to travel and work more freely between the UK and EU. The far right portrays this as a betrayal of the need to crack down on immigration.
Critics also point out that the new agreement does nothing to stem the small boats crisis, as more than 36,000 migrants made their way across the English Channel in 2024. Immigration is a hot button issue and a challenge that Prime Minister Keir Starmer, like his predecessors, is struggling to address.
As much as farmers will be happy, fishermen may not be, as the fisheries part was the most controversial component. European fishing boats will receive another 12 years of access to British waters in exchange for easing some trade frictions.
This agreement augurs a more mature relationship that is focused less on separation and more on maximizing the partnership
Chris Doyle
The Brexit divide will not disappear, but this agreement augurs a more mature relationship that is focused less on separation and more on cooperation and maximizing the UK-EU partnership. Idealistic Brexiteers have been too determined to oppose the EU no matter what and they may have overestimated the public’s appetite for rehashing the same old tired debates of the past.
Devout Europhiles, found mainly among the ranks of the Liberal Democrats, will dream of a full remarriage. This cannot be ruled out, but few would argue it is imminent. Starmer, despite being pro-European, knows he does not have the mandate and has yet to show the sort of boldness required to make such a dramatic move.
A slow rebalancing of this crucial relationship could be an effective reset. The detail is all still being worked on, but it signifies a more grown-up approach free from the ideological shortsightedness of previous debates. It has pragmatism written all over it.
For the Starmer government, this is welcome news, coming as it does in the wake of a free trade deal with India and an agreement on tariffs with the US. Starmer has had a tough first year, but he will hope these international deals will reverse some of the negativity toward his administration.
- Chris Doyle is director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding in London. X: @Doylech