ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 11 percent in its upcoming monetary policy meeting next week, according to a survey conducted by brokerage firm Topline Securities.
The bank had cut the rate by 1,000 basis points since June 2004 from an all-time high of 22 percent before holding it in March, citing the risk of price rises including from increased US tariffs.
In May, the central bank cut its key policy rate by 100 basis points to 11 percent, citing an improved inflation outlook and resuming a series of cuts from a record high of 22 percent.
“56 percent of market participants expect a status quo in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, compared to 31 percent in the previous poll,” Topline Securities said in a market note, releasing the results of its survey.
“44 percent of participants anticipate a further rate cut of at least 50 basis points. Of these, 19 percent expect a 50 bps cut and 25 percent foresee a 100 bps cut.”
The brokerage house said analysts believed the SBP may have space to ease the policy rate further by up to 100 basis points, with inflation for fiscal year 2025–26 forecast to average between 6 and 7 percent.
However, it said the likelihood of near-term rate cuts was tempered by external headwinds such as rebounding global crude oil prices, ongoing tensions in the Middle East, and uncertainty around a potential US-China trade agreement.
“Some major notifications are also expected before the start of the next fiscal year— such as gas and electricity price adjustments,” the report said.
“The inflationary impact of these measures is yet to be assessed and absorbed. That said, we believe the central bank will observe the status quo in the upcoming meeting.”
Topline’s survey also found that 58 percent of respondents expect the interest rate to remain above 10 percent through December 2025, while 42 percent foresee a range between 8 and 10 percent.
On inflation expectations, 69 percent believe average inflation will range between 6 and 8 percent in the next fiscal year, 20 percent expect it to hover between 8 and 10 percent, and 11 percent forecast inflation falling below 6 percent.
Separately, the SBP confirmed that its next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be held on Monday, June 16, as scheduled.
The meeting is being closely watched by investors and market analysts amid changing domestic and global economic conditions. While the May rate cut signaled the beginning of a monetary easing cycle, rising external risks and upcoming fiscal adjustments may prompt a more cautious stance from the central bank.
