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Turkiye is walking a tightrope as the Iran-Israel war intensifies. Given its long border with Iran and its complicated — often tense — relations with Israel, while being one of the few regional actors maintaining backchannels with Israel, Iran and the US, Ankara’s position is particularly significant.

Soon after Israel launched its attacks on Iran, Ankara swiftly responded: the Foreign Ministry issued a condemnation of Israel and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also made a statement. Turkiye’s current approach is shaped by a combination of security concerns, its position within the Western alliance and its relations with both Iran and Israel.

Turkiye, Iran and Israel are the three non-Arab middle powers in the Middle East whose relationships have always influenced the regional balance of power. Within this context, Turkiye would normally welcome the weakening of Iranian influence in the region. However, the unprecedented escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran, and the broader consequences of this war, are of far greater concern to Ankara than a diminished Iran.

To be clear, although the Turkish ruling elite and the public are not pleased with Tehran’s domestic and regional policies, they would not favor regime change in Iran — especially if it were to come at the hands of Israel or the US. The memory of what happened in Iraq and elsewhere remains fresh in the minds of the Turkish people.

Relations between Turkiye and Iran have historically been far from harmonious and, in recent years, tensions have increased due to sharp divergences on Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and even the South Caucasus. However, Ankara has managed to compartmentalize its relationship with Iran, adopting a pragmatic and less confrontational approach. Even while navigating its complex relationship with Israel, this approach has helped Turkiye avoid direct confrontation.

The unprecedented escalation of tensions is of far greater concern to Ankara than a diminished Iran

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

For Ankara, current Israeli policies pose greater risks than Iran’s, particularly as Tehran has already lost significant influence in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. While Israel takes a confrontational stance toward Iran, Turkiye prefers cautious engagement. While Turkiye seeks stability in Syria after decades of turmoil, Israel — through its airstrikes and ground incursions — appears to favor a weakened Syria. And while Turkiye advocates for Palestinian statehood and an end to the war in Gaza, Israel opposes both.

Amid such a contentious climate between Turkiye and Israel, in an increasingly disorderly region, the US factor becomes highly significant. As a NATO member and part of the Western security architecture, Turkiye maintains strategic ties with Washington, while Israel remains a key American ally. Ankara is keen to avoid tensions with the US administration at this stage — a stance reflected in recent statements from Turkish officials.

With the NATO Summit taking place in the Netherlands in the next few days, Erdogan is seeking a meeting with US President Donald Trump and Ankara is working to avoid any deterioration in Turkiye-US relations ahead of the event. However, continued Israeli aggression may cause new fractures in Turkiye’s relations with NATO and Western countries.

Still, the evolving security dynamics are seriously squeezing Turkiye’s room for maneuver. Sharing a long border with Iran makes it particularly vulnerable to the fallout from this conflict. Turkiye is not only geographically close, but it is also central to this conflict in terms of energy, security and diplomacy. Therefore, the Israel-Iran war raises serious military and strategic responsibilities for Turkiye.

Defense Minister Yasar Guler stated on Wednesday that Turkiye had increased security measures along its border with Iran. Although no official figures have been released, reports suggest there has been a growing flow of people traveling from Iran into Turkiye.

Erdogan announced that Turkiye would soon deploy new air defense systems and increase its stock of medium- and long-range missiles to a deterrent level following Israel’s attacks on Iran. He said: “We have made, and are making, preparations for every possible negative development and scenario.” Among the risks Turkiye faces are not only regional instability and growing security threats, but also rising energy prices, the risk of sabotage targeting natural gas pipeline infrastructure, and increasing vulnerabilities along foreign trade routes.

Continued Israeli aggression may cause new fractures in Turkiye’s relations with NATO and Western countries

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Within the domestic sphere, opposition parties also appear to be aligned with Turkiye’s position. Main opposition party leader Ozgur Ozel said he will attend the Solidarity with Palestine Rally organized in Istanbul on Sunday to condemn Israel, expressing that he expects “the strongest reaction” from the government.

At this critical juncture, Turkiye’s only viable option is to push for regional diplomacy. Erdogan has declared that Turkiye is ready to mediate an end to the Iran-Israel conflict. However, due to its geographic proximity and the complexity of its relations with Israel, Turkiye’s traditional mediation policy may not be as easily applied here as it was in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The absence of ambassador-level relations with Israel makes communication more difficult and hampers Turkiye’s potential mediation role. In this case, Turkiye may try to leverage its relationships with countries that have better ties with Israel — such as Azerbaijan and the UAE — to pressure the Israeli government to bring an end to this seemingly endless war.

Geography cannot be changed and Turkiye has historically paid a high price for being neighbors with unstable states. While things have slowly started to improve in Iraq and Syria after decades of instability, it is now Iran posing a challenge for Turkiye at its doorstep, but it is Israel in the broader region. An Israel-Iran war is a multidimensional test for Turkiye — one that demands the careful reevaluation of every pillar of policy: energy security, border control, diplomacy and regional strategy.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz