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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who succeeded Ayatollah Khomeini on June 4, 1989, is far from an ordinary figure in the balance of power and hierarchical structure. Therefore, Israeli threats to assassinate him carry extremely serious consequences for the security of the entire Middle East, especially in the wake of the US military operation that targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, causing widespread destruction.

Subsequently, Iran launched several ballistic missiles that struck targets inside Israel, which were followed by an announcement from the Iranian Shoura Council approving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, pending the approval of the Supreme National Security Council. If carried out, this step will take the conflict into a more complex escalation — one that could involve attacks on or disruption of oil tankers, directly affecting global energy prices and supply chains.

These rapidly unfolding developments may push Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu toward greater “euphoria” and an inflated sense of power, thus prompting a military operation that leads to the assassination of Khamenei, especially since the Israeli leader previously succeeded in targeting Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, his successor Hashem Safieddine, and the party’s most prominent military leaders, in addition to the assassination of senior Hamas leaders such as Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar.

In the Israeli target bank, many of which have been achieved, Netanyahu fails to take into account that Iran’s supreme leader cannot be equated with Nasrallah, who was killed last year. The difference in symbolic weight is enormous, and the consequences of a miscalculation are grave, as Abdulrahman Al-Rashed wrote in Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper on June 20. Al-Rashed described the idea of “targeting the leader as madness,” considering that “this issue is far more serious than just another military objective: It could become a matter of ideology and trigger deeply dangerous cycles of revenge.”

The Iranian leader’s continued survival is crucial

Hassan Al-Mustafa

Al-Rashed, one of the most prominent Arab writers and a political critic of Iranian policies in the Middle East, sought in his approach to the topic to provide a long-term, realistic political perspective. He considered that the assassination of Khamenei would cause “wounds that may never heal — regardless of how decisive the Israeli or American victories are on the battlefield.”

In this context, a prominent figure such as Ali Al-Sistani, the supreme religious authority of Shiite Muslims, issued a statement, his second since the start of the Israeli war on Iran, warning against “any threat to target its supreme religious and political leadership.” He considered that “any criminal measure of such kind, in addition to violating clear religious and moral standards and constituting a blatant violation of international laws and norms, will have dire consequences for the region as a whole,” potentially “spiraling out of control and leading to widespread chaos.”

Although Al-Sistani is a classical religious leader who often prefers to refrain from political involvement, this statement indicates his deep concern, prompting him to warn against further escalation in the Middle East.

Khamenei is not seen merely as the leader of the revolution in Iran; he is also a religious authority for millions of Shiite Muslims worldwide. In terms of the number of believers who adhere to his jurisprudential rulings, he likely ranks second or third after Al-Sistani, who is regarded as the highest-ranking Shiite religious figure in the world.

From this perspective, Khamenei’s assassination would give a greater ideological dimension to a conflict that already contains religious elements. This would unleash more rhetoric of extremism, hatred, and hostility between Muslims and Jews at a time when efforts should focus on interfaith dialogue and coexistence among religions and their adherents rather than fueling conflict between them.

Even politically, Khamenei remains the only leader capable of making a bold strategic decision in the Islamic Republic, one that would be binding for everyone, hard-liners and moderates, if Iran decides to sign any future agreement with the US that could end the current crisis.

Israeli and US strikes have inflicted a deep national wound

Hassan Al-Mustafa

The Israeli and US military strikes against Iran, and the severe losses in its leadership, missile program, and nuclear facilities, have inflicted a deep national wound, damaging the Islamic Republic’s prestige in the eyes of the public, and most importantly, in the eyes of its own people, where the state now appears less capable of responding effectively. Its air defenses are ineffective, despite the significant damage it has inflicted on several Israeli cities.

This blow to Iranian national pride cannot be overcome without a bold decision, and only Khamenei has the experience, legitimacy, and authority to make such a decision. His continued survival is, therefore, crucial, because without it, no Iranian leader, no matter how popular, would dare sign any future agreement between Washington and Tehran, as it may be perceived by the public as surrender or betrayal.

In terms of security in the Middle East, the assassination of Khamenei would trigger a wave of chaos and violence, especially if armed factions affiliated with the “Axis of Resistance” follow through with their threats. Despite the heavy losses these factions have suffered, they retain the capacity to cause widespread destruction, and target oil refineries and military targets. Such acts could come through Iraqi factions, Hezbollah in Lebanon, or the Houthis in Yemen — an outcome that the Arab Gulf states do not want to happen.

The best course of action, as the Saudi Foreign Ministry emphasized in a statement on June 22, is to “intensify efforts in these extremely sensitive circumstances to reach a political solution that ensures an end to the crisis and opens the door to achieving security and stability in the region.” The statement highlighted “the need to exert all efforts to exercise restraint, calm and avoid escalation,” as the alternative will be further confrontations that may lead to an uncalculated expansion of the parties involved in the war, which will result in casualties among innocent civilians.

• Hassan Al-Mustafa is a Saudi writer and researcher interested in Islamic movements, the development of religious discourse and the relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council states and Iran. X: @Halmustafa