������Ƶ

When visiting the president’s office, it helps to come bearing warmth. A firm embrace, a grateful smile, a public thank you — all gestures of loyalty that set the tone. It is best to arrive eager for wisdom and ready to express not only personal admiration but also that of your people. In these corridors of power, both elders and juniors are expected to display reverence.

Some go further. They declare themselves lucky to have been born during his era, lucky to sail on the same ship. For he, they say, is a seasoned captain, unfazed by tempests. Success clings to him and landmark deals bear his signature. He is, in their eyes, unlike any predecessor — a singular force, a steadfast ally in turbulent times.

Flattery often extends to his choice of necktie or dance steps — and, of course, his tweets. Such an encounter may begin with congratulations: victories abroad echo those at home.

As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu flew toward his US meeting this week, he was both relaxed and cautious. He credits himself with having slipped inside Donald Trump’s mind — perhaps even his heart. But Trump is a complex man: hard-edged, addicted to winning, a master of deals and disruption. He recoils at failure, bristles at disappointment and never backs down.

He plays both sides — extending a hand one moment, throwing punches the next. He views the world through his own lens, dismissing the vision of experts. His talent for veering off course is matched only by his flair for unsettling both allies and foes. Each new battle deepens his conviction that destiny has chosen him to save not only America, but the world.

Trump extends a hand one moment, throws punches the next. He views the world through his own lens.

Ghassan Charbel

Netanyahu might open the meeting with a tale. He could say the president’s backing allowed him to carry out major surgery on the Middle East — painful, delicate, expensive surgery that has redrawn the region’s face. Just two years ago, he might say, a missile could travel from Tehran to Beirut via Iraq and Syria, bypassing state permission. An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps adviser could accompany it, arming proxies and cementing their place in the so-called axis of resistance.

Back then, a visitor to Syria could meet President Bashar Assad in Damascus, then travel by road to Beirut’s southern suburbs to sit with Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. They could even meet leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad living in Lebanon without state consent.

American support secured Israel’s military and technological edge and facilitated the operation. Today, the missile no longer reaches its target. Nor does the adviser. Syria, once the corridor and incubator, speaks a different language now — reportedly seeking only to revive the disengagement accord in exchange for stepping out of the military side of the conflict with Israel.

Lebanon, once the base of the “support front,” has paid a steep price. Though Israel paused its shelling, it continues lethal strikes. Without Syrian depth, Hezbollah cannot launch a war. Yet its insistence on holding onto its weapons robs Lebanon of stability and reconstruction prospects and could trigger something worse.

The old balance is broken. Israeli jets control the skies over much of the neighborhood and operate across borders. Syria wants US guarantees. So does Hamas. Lebanon, too. Even Iran is said to be seeking American assurances. Trump, it seems, is the region’s guarantor-in-chief.

Netanyahu closes his eyes. He feels genuine gratitude toward the president. The picture has changed. The fall of Assad’s regime, in his eyes, shifted the game. The current phase is about forcing factions back into their native maps, stripped of regional extensions. That return coincides with extracting borders from the battlefield, at least for now.

Removing the rubble from Gaza will take years. So will reconstruction. In the meantime, Hamas will likely be sidelined, unable to contemplate another war.

Lebanon, too, may not pose a threat in the coming years. At best, it hopes for implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, Israeli withdrawal from its territory and for weapons to be placed solely in the state’s hands.

The biggest file remains Iran. Trump’s vow to prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon is unwavering. The latest round of conflict drew Tehran directly into the war, stripping it of the luxury of fighting by proxy. Israeli strikes on Iranian soil pierced what Tehran once considered untouchable. Even as Iran’s missiles struck Tel Aviv, the strategic loss across its regional network was deeper.

Now the question: Will Iran opt to ride out Trump’s term, coexisting until the clock runs out? Can it rebuild new lines of regional defense resembling Hezbollah’s former role?

Netanyahu knows Trump needs a win in Gaza after failing to deliver one in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to crush Ukraine before agreeing to a truce and he wants no partner in claiming victory.

But Netanyahu will not challenge the guarantor-in-chief. The man of war can also be the man of peace. A ceasefire in Gaza might be accepted — then navigated around. Some flexibility may be necessary, given the devastation. There is little left in Gaza that could pose a danger.

Israel’s adversaries now wait for guarantees from the US. Netanyahu, meanwhile, hopes for a fresh endorsement from the White House to fuel his reelection bid.

Some in the region are even hoping Trump concludes that the most meaningful guarantee he can offer is to keep the two-state solution alive — even if on pause. For now, the guarantor also remains the dealer of surprises.

• Ghassan Charbel is editor-in-chief of Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper. X: @GhasanCharbel

This article first appeared in Asharq Al-Awsat.