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DHAKA, Bangladesh: Protests in Bangladesh that toppled the government last year triggered a diplomatic pivot, with Dhaka warming toward China after neighboring India was angered by the ousting of its old ally Sheikh Hasina.

One year since the protests, that realignment risks intensifying polarization — and fears of external interference — as political parties in Bangladesh jostle for influence ahead of elections next year.

For the caretaker government, seeking domestic consensus for overhauling democratic institutions in the country of 170 million people, it is another challenge to juggle.

“India-Bangladesh relations have probably never experienced such intense strain before,” said New Delhi-based analyst Praveen Donthi, from the International Crisis Group.

There is deep resentment in Dhaka over the fate of fugitive ex-prime minister Hasina, who escaped a student-led uprising by helicopter in August 2024 and flew to New Delhi as thousands of protesters stormed her palace.

Interim leader Muhammad Yunus said popular anger in Muslim-majority Bangladesh had been “transferred over to India” because Hasina was offered sanctuary by New Delhi’s Hindu nationalist government.

Hasina, 77, has defied extradition orders to attend her crimes against humanity trial, and has already been convicted in absentia for contempt of court with a six-month sentence.

Md Touhid Hossain, who heads Bangladesh’s foreign ministry, said that “the relationship is now at the readjustment stage.”

Nobel Peace Prize winner Yunus’s first state visit was to China in March, a trip that saw him secure $2.1 billion in investments, loans and grants.

Beijing has also courted leading politicians directly.

Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, a senior leader of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — the expected election frontrunner — said China is “keen” to work with the next elected government with “sincerity, steadfastness, love, and affection.”

India has long been wary of China’s growing regional clout and the world’s two most populous countries compete for influence in South Asia, despite a recent diplomatic thaw.

Bangladesh has also moved closer to Pakistan, India’s arch-enemy.

In May, more than 70 people were killed in four days of missile, drone and artillery fire between the forces of New Delhi and Islamabad, sparked by a deadly militant attack on civilians in India-administered Kashmir.

The following month, officials from Dhaka and Islamabad met counterparts in China.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the trio had agreed to “cooperation programs” including in trade, industry, education and agriculture.

Obaidul Haque, who teaches international relations at the University of Dhaka, said talks with Beijing had “borne fruit,” including alternative health care after once popular medical tourism to India was restricted.

“For example, China designated three hospitals for Bangladeshi patients when India made access difficult,” he said.

Bangladesh and Pakistan — which split in 1971 after Dhaka’s independence war — began trade by sea last year, with direct flights also slated.

That sparked worry in New Delhi.

“The current Indian political leadership, owing to its ideological foundations... are unwilling to accept Dhaka under a government they perceive as Islamist and hostile toward India,” Donthi said.

“The visible engagement between Dhaka, Islamabad, and Beijing enhances this perception further.”

Both New Delhi and Bangladesh have imposed trade restrictions on each other.

India, which encircles much of Bangladesh by land, has imposed multiple trade restrictions — including tightening rules on Indian imports of jute fibers, ready-made garments, plastic products and food.

But trade between the neighboring nations remains high, said Md Humayun Kabir, a former Bangladeshi ambassador to Washington, who has also served in India.

But he urged caution, saying Dhaka should “tread carefully forming alliances,” and seek to strengthen “multilateral relations” as a balance.

“Cooperation still exists between the countries, but the warmth is gone,” he said.

Separately, Bangladesh, the world’s second-largest garment exporter, has also been caught in the global shakeup caused by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs.

Dhaka is proposing to buy Boeing planes and boost imports of US wheat, cotton and oil in a bid to reduce the trade deficit, with Yunus in June telling US Secretary of State Marco Rubio of his “commitment to strengthening” ties.

But in terms of regional tensions, analysts say little will change soon — and warn they have the potential to escalate.

“Things might change only if New Delhi is satisfied with the electoral process and sees somebody amenable to it come to power in Dhaka,” the Crisis Group’s Donthi added.

“It is very unlikely that their position will change toward the current government in Dhaka,” he said.

“There may be attempts to undermine it rather than to collaborate.”

WASHINGTON: Donald Trump has shrugged off Elon Musk’s plans for a new political party as “ridiculous” — but the announcement underscored the threat the disaffected former ally poses to US Republicans defending paper-thin congressional majorities.
Musk’s weekend launch of the “America Party” came in the wake of Trump signing into law a sprawling domestic policy bill that the tech mogul has slammed over estimates that it will balloon the deficit.
Musk has been light on policy detail, but is expected to target a handful of House and Senate seats in next year’s midterm elections where the sitting Republican voted for Trump’s bill after preaching fiscal responsibility.
“Elon Musk’s America Party is a wild card that could upend the midterms in 2026, particularly for Republicans,” said political analyst Matt Shoemaker, a former Republican congressional candidate and an ex-intelligence officer.
“With bare majorities in Congress, the Republicans should be worried.”
Musk, the world’s richest person, had teased the idea of a new party for weeks, running an informal social media poll in June that showed 80 percent support among 5.6 million respondents.
Unlike previous third parties, his would have almost limitless resources, and a talisman with a large constituency of young American men who see him as a maverick genius and a superstar.
“Musk’s brand appeals to disaffected independents and younger, tech-savvy voters who might otherwise break for Republicans in swing districts,” Shoemaker told AFP.
With a personal wealth estimated at $405 billion, Musk has already demonstrated that he is willing to spend big on politics, lavishing $277 million on Trump’s 2024 campaign.
Yet a more recent foray into Wisconsin politics — he spent $20 million only to see his candidate for the state supreme court lose handily — has underlined the limits of wealth and celebrity in politics.
And then there is the political difficulty of building support in the American heartland, among voters who are not part of Musk’s Silicon Valley “tech bro” bubble.
Time magazine’s 2021 Person of the Year was once liked by a broad cross-section of Americans, but he saw his numbers plunge after joining the Trump administration as the president’s costcutter-in-chief.
Musk’s net favorability in the most recent rating published by Nate Silver, one of the most respected US pollsters, is underwater at -18.1, compared with a slightly less subaquatic -6.6 for Trump.
“While you don’t want to paint with too broad a brush, the Republican base and MAGA movement are fairly inseparable in today’s political climate,” said Flavio Hickel, associate professor of political science at Washington College in Maryland.
“And their support for Trump has been unwavering despite recent controversies. It’s hard to imagine any political project associated with Musk siphoning off votes from individuals who approve of Donald Trump.”
While multiple Republicans and Democrats have switched to independent, wins for third parties have been rare in modern US history.
The Conservative Party of New York State in the 1970s and the Farmer-Labour Party in the 1930s are the only minor parties to win Senate seats in the last century.
Smaller parties saw more success in the House in the early 20th century but have only won one seat since the 1950s.
AFP spoke to multiple analysts who pointed to the many hurdles thrown in front of third-party candidates trying to get onto the ballot in a system designed to favor the status quo.
These include minimum signature requirements, filing fees and other onerous state-specific regulations on age, residency and citizenship.
“Remember in early 2024 the so-called ‘No Labels’ party that was going to chart a middle course for the 2024 elections?” said veteran political strategist Matt Klink.
“They fizzled out in epic fashion.”
Analysts agree that winning seats in Congress may be a stretch, but say Musk can inflict pain on Trump by syphoning votes from vulnerable sitting Republicans or throwing cash at primary opponents of the president’s preferred candidates.
“Elon’s party won’t win seats, but it could cost Republicans plenty,” said Evan Nierman, the founder and CEO of global crisis PR firm Red Banyan.
“In tight districts, even a few points siphoned off from the right could flip control.”