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Amid the ongoing conflict in the region, Iran and Afghanistan are grappling with a severe migration crisis. Since the beginning of the year, 1.2 million Afghan migrants have been deported from Iran back to Afghanistan, placing an immense burden on a country already struggling with poverty, instability and limited resources.

Neighboring Iran and Afghanistan are bound by centuries of shared history. Their peoples are connected by cultural, linguistic and religious ties. From the days of the Persian Empire to the modern era, the two nations have moved between unity and divergence, particularly after the 1979 Iranian Revolution. For decades, what is now Afghanistan was considered part of the greater Persian Empire, a legacy that is still visible in their shared identities.

The formation of distinct nation states brought about formal borders; however, the bonds remain strong, shaped by common heritage and geographical proximity. These ties have made migration between the two countries both natural and frequent. The presence of Persian-speaking communities, especially the Hazara minority, and an open border have long facilitated Afghan movement into Iran, whether for work, refuge or as a transit country to Turkiye and Europe.

After 1979, Iran began using Afghan migrants as a source of low-cost labor, particularly in construction. This trend deepened following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, creating another large wave of Afghan displacement. Then-Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi came from the migrant-heavy region of Mashhad. Under his leadership, Tehran took a more regulated approach to Afghan migration. His government launched one of the country’s largest-ever registration campaigns, providing temporary residency to some 2.5 million undocumented Afghans and building a centralized identification system to better manage their presence.

But these steps, however ambitious, could not withstand the geopolitical turmoil that erupted last month. Amid an intensifying war with Israel, including missile strikes and attacks on its nuclear facilities, Iran ordered Afghan migrants to leave the country, beginning on June 6. Within days, tens of thousands had fled or were forcibly deported. According to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, more than 30,000 Afghans were deported every day during the Iran-Israel conflict.

Iran is home to more than 6 million Afghans, the vast majority of whom are undocumented and living in precarious conditions. Tehran’s sudden crackdown was reportedly driven by rising security fears, particularly suspicions that some undocumented Afghans may be involved in espionage. Iranian state media reported the arrests of Afghan nationals accused of spying for Israel during last month’s 12-day conflict.

Many Afghans deported from Iran find themselves returning to a country in an even worse condition than they left

Zaid M. Belbagi

This adds to the anti-Afghan sentiment in Iran, which has been growing for years. Afghans are frequently portrayed as economic burdens, with public discourse increasingly dominated by xenophobic claims and accusations that they “steal Iranian jobs.” These combined pressures have resulted in the alarming consequence of 450,000 Afghans being deported from Iran since early June.

Behind these headline numbers is a growing humanitarian emergency that raises serious concern. Humanitarian agencies warn of an unfolding catastrophe. Afghanistan, already struggling with entrenched poverty and severe climate shocks, is ranking 181st out of 193 on the UN’s Human Development Index. It is simply not equipped to absorb such a large number of people.

Returnees have no homes and are suffering from extreme famine and poor health. Many are suffering from heat exhaustion and malnutrition. In response, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies has launched a $30 million emergency appeal to support returnees at border points, such as Islam Qala, and transit centers. So far, only 10 percent of the appeal has been funded. In response, the Taliban-led government has called on Tehran to organize returns with dignity, urging it to take into consideration the country’s limited capacity.

In such a difficult and complex situation, many Afghans deported from Iran find themselves returning to a country in an even worse condition than when they left, especially for women. Afghanistan, facing deep economic and humanitarian challenges, lacks the capacity to absorb the growing number of returnees on its own. This is no longer just a bilateral issue between Iran and Afghanistan — it is a regional crisis that demands coordinated action from Gulf countries, Central Asian states and global humanitarian actors, who should step up with increased humanitarian aid, temporary asylum quotas and basic support such as food, shelter and medical assistance.

Addressing this humanitarian emergency requires a shared regional effort to ease the burden on both the Afghan people and the Afghan state, ensuring the stability of a region already under severe strain.

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator and an adviser to private clients between London and the Gulf Cooperation Council. X: @Moulay_Zaid