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As the world grapples with multiple geopolitical flashpoints — from the fallout of strikes in Iran and stalled Ukraine-Russia negotiations to an unexpected flare-up of fighting between Thailand and Cambodia — it is easy to lose sight of another region where tensions are quietly growing: the Arctic.

This week, three events underscore the region’s increasing strategic significance and its potential to become a future hot spot of global instability.

First, it was reported that GPS signals used by commercial and civilian aircraft, including search-and-rescue helicopters, were being jammed and spoofed near the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. While Svalbard was granted to Norway under a 1920s treaty after the First World War, it remains a geopolitical fault line between Norway and Russia. Incidents of electronic interference in the region have risen dramatically since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the subsequent deterioration in relations between Moscow and the West.

Second, the Russian Navy is conducting a major maritime exercise in the Arctic Ocean. Authorities designated a vast area, roughly the size of the UAE, as unsafe for civilian activity. The exercise zone sits in a maritime area that was once disputed with Norway, making the timing and location of the drill especially provocative.

Third, Russian President Vladimir Putin personally attended the launch of a new nuclear-powered and armed submarine. In recent years, such new submarines have been sent to Russia’s Pacific Fleet. That Russia chose to deliver this submarine to the North Fleet underscores the strategic importance Moscow continues to place on the Arctic region.

Though sparsely populated, the Arctic is rich in resources

Luke Coffey

It is no surprise that the Arctic commands continued interest. Though sparsely populated, it is rich in resources. Estimates suggest that vast untapped reserves of oil, gas, and rare earth minerals are located in the region. It is also home to vital fish stocks, critical for global food security. As the Arctic continues to warm — melting faster each summer — new shipping routes are becoming viable. These emerging lanes could reshape global trade by shortening the maritime journey between Europe and Asia, bypassing chokepoints such as the Suez Canal and Cape of Good Hope.

But this new accessibility also increases the risk of competition and conflict. Today, the eight Arctic states are sharply divided along the traditional East-West fault line. Seven of them — Canada, Denmark (via Greenland), Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the US — are now under the NATO umbrella. Russia, the largest Arctic nation, is isolated by its own actions. Its invasion of Ukraine fractured cooperation in multilateral forums such as the Arctic Council, which once enabled collaboration on shared challenges, including environmental protection, oil spill response, and search and rescue.

Since returning to the Oval Office, President Donald Trump has reinserted Arctic security into the global conversation — sometimes in audacious ways, such as his controversial suggestion that the US should annex Greenland, a Danish territory strategically located off the North American coast. His push for European allies to invest more in their own defense has also had Arctic implications. Canada, Norway, and Denmark have all pledged increased spending on Arctic capabilities. Even non-Arctic NATO members such as the UK have developed Arctic strategies and regularly participate in military exercises in the region.

For Russia, the Arctic is not just strategic, it is existential. The region holds deep geographic, historical, and cultural resonance for Russians. Despite economic challenges, Moscow has continued to expand its Arctic footprint, reopening Soviet-era military bases and constructing new ones. It is also investing in nuclear-powered icebreakers, coastal defense systems, and Arctic-specific military units.

Meanwhile, outside powers are eyeing the region with growing interest, none more so than China. Despite being over 1,200 km from the Arctic Circle, Beijing calls itself a “near-Arctic state.” In recent years, it has sought deeper involvement through the Arctic Council, where it holds observer status. But with the council largely paralyzed due to Russia’s actions, China has found other avenues, partnering with Moscow to invest in Arctic energy and shipping infrastructure, especially along Russia’s Northern Sea Route. This growing presence has not gone unnoticed in Washington and likely contributed to renewed US interest in Greenland and the Arctic more broadly.

For Russia, the region is not just strategic, it is existential

Luke Coffey

The future of the Arctic will have global consequences. If other shipping routes, such as those in the Red Sea, remain unstable, the Arctic may become a critical alternative. Yet the more accessible the region becomes, the more militarized and contested it may grow. For now, the Arctic remains an area of relatively low tension. But that status is fragile.

It is a mistake to think of the Arctic as disconnected from the world’s broader geopolitical currents. Whether it is NATO-Russia tensions, China’s global ambitions, or competition over critical minerals, all roads increasingly lead north. And because the region involves so many actors, many of them rivals, it cannot be insulated from wider global trends.

The international community must act now to preserve the Arctic as a zone of peace and stability. This means reinforcing the principle that decisions about the region should be led by the Arctic states themselves.

In the Arctic, sovereignty equals stability. Respecting each nation’s sovereignty, while being prepared to defend your own, is a great way to ensure a lasting peace.

The Arctic may not dominate headlines, but it increasingly shapes the strategic calculations of policymakers across the globe. It is time the world paid closer attention to what is happening at the top of the world — before it becomes the next great power flashpoint.

• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey