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Oil Updates — crude steadies as market weighs up supply risks

Update Oil Updates — crude steadies as market weighs up supply risks
Brent crude futures were down 5 cents or about 0.1 percent, at $71.63 a barrel by 2:26 p.m. Saudi time. File/AFP
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Updated 44 min 49 sec ago

Oil Updates — crude steadies as market weighs up supply risks

Oil Updates — crude steadies as market weighs up supply risks
  • Trump cuts deadline, vows sanctions if Russia makes no progress
  • Supply risks rise over US warning to China over Russian oil
  • China unlikely to comply with US sanctions, analysts say

LONDON: Oil prices steadied on Wednesday as investors awaited developments on US President Donald Trump’s tighter deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and his tariff threats to countries that trade its oil.

The most active Brent crude futures were down 5 cents or about 0.1 percent, at $71.63 a barrel by 2:26 p.m. Saudi time while US West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 5 cents to $69.61.

The Brent crude September contract that expires on Wednesday was steady at $72.50.

Both contracts had fallen nearly 1 percent earlier in the day.

“Events in the last few days have moved the needle a touch more, but we still appear to be somewhat rangebound and testing the next resistance level,” said Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah.

Trump had said on Tuesday that he would start imposing measures on Russia, such as secondary tariffs of 100 percent on trading partners, if it did not make progress on ending the war within 10 to 12 days, moving up from an earlier 50-day deadline.

The US also warned China, the largest buyer of Russian oil, that it could face huge tariffs if it kept buying, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a news conference in Stockholm.

JP Morgan analysts wrote that while China was unlikely to comply with US sanctions, India has signalled it would do so, which could affect 2.3 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports.

“Oil prices reacted strongly yesterday, so there is some profit booking,” said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo, adding that data from the American Petroleum Institute from Tuesday was also bearish for crude.

“Market participants are also taking into account that low prices and secondary sanctions/tariffs on Russia won’t work at the same time.”

US crude and distillate stocks rose last week while gasoline inventories fell, market sources said, citing API data.

“Depending on the outcome of the US-Russia discussions, tariff implementation and the OPEC+ meeting and announcement on unwinding (of output cuts), the market could see some movement,” Rystad’s Shah added.


Education spending drives Saudi POS transactions to $3.16bn 

Education spending drives Saudi POS transactions to $3.16bn 
Updated 13 min 33 sec ago

Education spending drives Saudi POS transactions to $3.16bn 

Education spending drives Saudi POS transactions to $3.16bn 
  • Education sector recorded SR111.18 million in transaction value
  • Overall POS transactions across all sectors declined 2.9% to 206.46 million

RIYADH: Education spending in Ƶ increased by 3.6 percent in the week ending July 26, driving total point-of-sale transactions to SR11.87 billion ($3.16 billion), even as most other sectors saw declines. 

Total POS value remained above the $3 billion mark for the fifth consecutive week despite a 2.7 percent weekly drop, underscoring the resilience of consumer activity across the Kingdom, according to data from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA. 

The education sector recorded SR111.18 million in transaction value, with the number of transactions slipping 4.1 percent to 140,000, while overall POS transactions across all sectors declined 2.9 percent to 206.46 million. The hotels sector saw a 1.3 percent increase to SR291.07 million. 

On July 29, the Saudi Cabinet approved the new statistics law, enhancing the Kingdom’s POS reporting with more detailed retail market insights. This update introduces refined subcategories in POS data, improving transparency and supporting data-driven decision-making in line with Vision 2030. 

According to SAMA’s bulletin, the subcategory of books and stationery saw the largest decrease, dropping by 5.8 percent to SR98.11 million. Spending on airlines ranked next, dropping 5.6 percent to SR65.20 million. 

Food and beverages, the sector with the biggest share of total POS value, recorded a 1.8 percent decrease to SR1.70 billion, while the restaurants and cafes sector saw a 2.4 percent decrease, totaling SR1.55 billion and claiming the second-biggest share of this week’s POS. 

Spending on transportation ranked third despite a 2.2 percent decline to SR945.76 million. 

The top three categories accounted for approximately 35.3 percent of the week’s total spending, amounting to SR4.19 billion. 

The smallest decline was seen in spending on freight transport, postal and courier services which decreased by 0.9 percent to SR36.13 million, followed by expenditure on telecommunication, which saw a 1 percent dip to SR131.86 million. 

Geographically, Riyadh dominated POS transactions, with expenses in the capital reaching SR4.1 billion, a 2.7 percent decrease from the previous week.  

Jeddah followed closely with a 3.1 percent dip to SR1.70 billion, while Dammam ranked third, down 2.8 percent to SR566.81 million. 

Al-Jubail saw the smallest increase, inching up 0.6 percent to SR123.04 million, followed by Al-Baha with a 0.7 percent increase to SR76.12 million. 

Hail recorded 3.54 million deals in transaction volume, down 3.2 percent from the previous week, while Tabuk reached 3.93 million transactions, dropping 4.3 percent. 


Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone revenues jump 38% YoY despite traffic downturn

Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone revenues jump 38% YoY despite traffic downturn
Updated 30 July 2025

Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone revenues jump 38% YoY despite traffic downturn

Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone revenues jump 38% YoY despite traffic downturn

RIYADH: Egypt’s General Authority for the Suez Canal Economic Zone reported a 38 percent year-on-year increase in revenue in the fiscal year 2024/25, reaching 11.43 billion Egyptian pounds ($234 million).

According to a statement from the Egyptian Cabinet, the authority also recorded a surplus of 8.49 billion pounds during the same period, SCZONE Chairman Walid Gamal El-Din told Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly during a meeting to review the zone’s performance and investment pipeline. 

The growth comes despite a steep downturn in traffic through the Suez Canal, which saw revenues decline 54.1 percent to $2.6 billion between July 2024 and March, as ongoing Red Sea tensions triggered a 44.8 percent drop in ship transits. 

The increase aligns with SCZONE’s objective to attract regional businesses by offering streamlined access to local markets and talent, along with value-driven industrial parks that support integrated supply chains. 

In a statement posted on its official Facebook page, the Cabinet said the SCZONE chairman noted that “the authority’s promotional efforts contributed to achieving actual contracts for industrial, service, and logistics projects worth $7.09 billion for 286 projects, in addition to seaport projects worth $1.5 billion for 11 projects, for a total of $8.6 billion for 297 projects.” 

SCZONE Chairman Walid Gamal El-Din, third from left, listens to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, centre. Egypt Cabinet/Facebook

During the meeting, Gamal El-Din highlighted progress in two key industrial areas. In Ain Sokhna, the zone attracted foreign investment in sectors such as renewable energy, electronics, pharmaceuticals, automotive components, and metal manufacturing. 

Meanwhile, the Qantara West zone saw the implementation of 31 projects spanning 2 million sq. meters, with a combined investment of $799 million, expected to generate 45,000 job opportunities. 

Gamal El-Din also outlined how the authority aims to attract new projects in industrial and service sectors such as technology and semiconductors, electronics, engineering equipment and machinery, photovoltaic solar cells, vocational training centers, and silica sand mining and raw materials industries. 

He added that the authority has already secured $43 million in foreign investment in silica mining and modern building materials. 

As part of these efforts, the SCZONE chairman noted that a promotional tour across several Chinese provinces was conducted to attract new foreign direct investment. The visit included high-level meetings with major Chinese firms and culminated in the signing of six new industrial project contracts in the textile and garments sector, valued at a combined $117.5 million. 

The deals represent a strategic step toward deepening economic ties with China and expanding Egypt’s manufacturing base, the statement added.


Boursa Kuwait net profit surges 61% in H1 

Boursa Kuwait net profit surges 61% in H1 
Updated 30 July 2025

Boursa Kuwait net profit surges 61% in H1 

Boursa Kuwait net profit surges 61% in H1 

RIYADH: A rise in operating revenues and profitability drove Boursa Kuwait’s net profit to 15.11 million Kuwaiti dinars ($49.4 million) in the first half of 2025 — a 61.12 percent annual increase.

The growth was underpinned by a 41.13 percent year-on-year rise in total operating revenues to 24.20 million dinars, alongside a 59.53 percent boost in operating profit to 18.47 million dinars, according to a release. 

Earnings per share surged in tandem, rising from 46.71 fils to 75.27 fils by June 30, while total assets reached 123.87 million dinars, reflecting a 9.26 percent increase year-on-year. 

Shareholders’ equity attributable to equity holders of the parent company climbed 12.68 percent to 66.20 million dinars. 

The Boursa’s growth aligns with the World Bank’s forecast for Kuwait’s non-oil sector, which is expected to expand by 1.6 percent in 2025, supported by renewed real credit growth and large-scale infrastructure projects such as the Northern Special Economic Zone and Silk City. 

Boursa Kuwait Chairman Bader Al-Kharafi said: “These results reaffirm Boursa Kuwait’s capacity to navigate the complex geopolitical and economic challenges experienced worldwide while maintaining sustainable growth supported by revenue diversification and enhanced liquidity levels.” 

He added: “This growth marks a significant milestone in our journey, giving us greater momentum to advance our development plans to modernize market infrastructure, diversify investment instruments and strengthen its appeal to both local and international investors.” 

While the oil sector is projected to rebound with 2.2 percent real growth as OPEC+ production cuts ease from May, the broader fiscal outlook remains mixed, with the fiscal deficit forecast to widen to approximately 7.2 percent of gross domestic product due to weaker oil revenues. 

The performance coincides with major enhancements introduced under Part Two of Phase Three of the Market Development Program, a collaborative initiative involving Boursa Kuwait, the Capital Markets Authority, and Central Bank of Kuwait, as well as Kuwait Clearing Co., local banks, and investment and brokerage firms. 

Al-Kharafi credited the achievement to “seamless collaboration across the capital market apparatus and a shared determination to create tangible value for investors,” affirming the company’s commitment to “delivering transformative milestones that secure the long-term sustainability of the national economy.” 

He also emphasized the role of the private sector, noting that this breakthrough “underscores the private sector’s agility and effectiveness in advancing development and forging impactful partnerships with the public sector.” 

He extended his gratitude to stakeholders, including shareholders, executive management, regulatory authorities, and investors, stating: “Our commitment to deliver a superlative investment experience remains unwavering.” 

The Kuwaiti capital market recorded a surge in activity during the first half of 2025, with traded value jumping 90.39 percent to 12.63 billion dinars, while traded volume rose 82.95 percent to 49.45 billion shares. 

Market capitalization reached 50.53 billion dinars, a 23.20 percent increase year on year. 

The “Premier” Market contributed significantly with traded value up 47.09 percent to 7.34 billion dinars and market capitalization up 24.45 percent to 42.27 billion dinars. 

Meanwhile, the “Main” Market posted a 221.36 percent rise in traded value to 5.29 billion dinars, alongside a 17.20 percent growth in market capitalization to 8.27 billion dinars. 

Boursa Kuwait CEO Mohammad Saud Al-Osaimi highlighted the effectiveness of recent regulatory and operational reforms. 

“These positive indicators showcase the robustness of the Kuwaiti capital market’s regulatory framework and our continued efforts to enhance infrastructure, diversify products and elevate the investor experience,” he said. 

He noted the strategic role of market segmentation, stating: “The ‘Premier’ Market has maintained stable trading values, while the ‘Main’ Market has shown remarkable activity.” 

In pursuit of a stronger international presence, Boursa Kuwait has engaged in roadshows and corporate days in partnership with global financial institutions. 

These included events in Asia and London, showcasing the exchange’s progress and investment potential. 

Al-Osaimi said: “Through active engagement with world-renowned investment banks, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds and asset management firms, the exchange has cultivated a robust investor base.” He added that institutional investors account for 65.08 percent of participants. 

The CEO reiterated the exchange’s commitment to expanding its product range, enhancing market efficiency, and strengthening investor confidence through transparency and governance. 

Since its privatization in 2019 and self-listing in 2020, Boursa Kuwait has introduced multiple market development phases aimed at boosting its global standing and supporting Kuwait’s broader economic vision.


IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%
Updated 29 July 2025

IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

IMF raises Ƶ’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.6%

RIYADH: The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Ƶ to 3.6 percent, up from the 3 percent projected in April, citing stronger non-oil sector performance and the expected unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said the revision reflects a stronger-than-anticipated expansion of the non-oil economy. The Kingdom’s growth is now set to outpace the global average of 3 percent next year and surpass that of most neighboring Gulf states.

Looking ahead, the IMF expects Ƶ’s growth to rise further to 3.9 percent in 2026 before stabilizing around 3.5 percent over the medium term.

Non-oil gross domestic product is projected to grow 3.4 percent in 2025, slightly below the 4.2 percent recorded in 2024. However, medium-term prospects remain strong, with non-oil growth forecast to approach 4 percent by 2027 before settling at 3.5 percent by the end of the decade.

Labor market conditions have also improved, with the unemployment rate among Saudi nationals falling to a record low of 7 percent in 2024, the IMF noted.

Inflation remains contained, with the headline rate expected to stay near 2 percent, supported by the Kingdom’s dollar peg and subsidy framework.

On fiscal policy, the IMF said higher government spending in 2025 — resulting in a deficit above the initial budget — was justified and that additional spending cuts in response to lower oil prices could be counterproductive. Such cuts would risk making fiscal policy procyclical and weighing on growth, the report stated.

The IMF also called for a gradual fiscal consolidation over the medium term. It recommended raising non-oil revenues, phasing out energy subsidies, and streamlining public expenditure.

Despite facing some pressures from strong credit growth and funding costs, the Saudi banking sector remains resilient, the IMF said. The Saudi Central Bank has introduced a countercyclical capital buffer and is continuing to strengthen regulatory frameworks.

The report emphasized the importance of sustaining structural reforms to support non-oil growth and economic diversification. It urged continued progress on governance, human capital development, financial access, digitalization, and capital market deepening — regardless of oil price trends.


GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest

GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest
Updated 29 July 2025

GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest

GCC inflation remains stable through Q2 despite geopolitical instability: Kamco Invest
  • Dubai recorded a monthly inflation rate of 2.4% in June
  • Ƶ and Kuwait registered inflation rates of 2.3%

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council inflation rates remained stable throughout the second quarter of 2025 despite heightened geopolitical instability, a new report showed.

According to the latest analysis by Kuwait-based non-banking firm Kamco Invest, Dubai recorded a monthly inflation rate of 2.4 percent in June, unchanged from May, followed by Ƶ and Kuwait, both registering inflation rates of 2.3 percent in June.

This aligns with recently released data from the Statistical Center for the GCC, which shows that the region’s average inflation rate fell to 1.7 percent in 2024, down from 2.2 percent in 2023.

It also supports the fact that the GCC economies are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 4 percent, as rising oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity offset global trade headwinds, according to a recent economic update by the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales prepared with Oxford Economics.

“The war in the Middle East affected crude oil prices that surged to almost $79 per barrel. But quietly receded in the subsequent weeks as OPEC+ accelerated the output hikes aiming to unwind the full 2.2 mb/d by September-2025,” Kamco said.

It added: “Brent crude oil is trading at $68.4 per barrel, 8.3 percent lower than its level at the end of 2024. The quarter also witnessed the start of the global tariff war that affected financial markets and expectations for future economic growth.”

The Kamco report also said that the conflict’s limited impact on regional inflation was largely because increases in commodity and shipping costs occurred gradually over time, rather than through sudden spikes.

The ongoing application of prudent economic policies across the GCC has also played a key role in controlling inflation, keeping rates well below those in other parts of the Middle East and the world.

Inflationary pressures in the US intensified in June, with the annual rate climbing to 2.7 percent, the highest in five months, up from 2.4 percent in May. The uptick was primarily attributed to rising prices in core goods, which hit their highest level in two years.

“These increases are largely attributed to new tariffs affecting household furnishings, appliances, electronics, apparel, and toys. Meanwhile, the US consumer price index registered a m-o-m (month-on-month) growth of 0.3 percent in June-2025. Excluding the typically volatile food and energy sectors, US core inflation increased by 0.2 percent m-o-m, with the annualized core rate rising to 2.9 percent in June,” Kamco said.

“It is important to highlight that prior to this uptick, US inflation had been on a generally downward trajectory. Similarly, inflation in the Eurozone rose in June-2025, reaching 2.0 percent, down from 2.5 percent in June-2024 but slightly higher than May-2025’s rate of 1.9 percent. The Services sector experienced the highest y-o-y growth at 3.3 percent, followed by the Food, Alcohol, and Tobacco category, which rose by 3.1 percent,” it added.

Earlier in July, Kamco Invest said that foreign investors sharply increased their exposure to Gulf stock markets in the second quarter of 2025, with net inflows surging 50 percent compared to the previous three months to reach $4.2 billion. 

The momentum extended the streak of net foreign inflows into GCC equities to six consecutive quarters, with total net purchases in the first half of 2025 rising 39.8 percent year on year to $7 billion.