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In recent months, parts of the Middle East have been thrust into the center of an unfolding environmental emergency, one that could rival the region’s political and security crises in terms of its severity and long-term impact: the deepening water scarcity crisis.
Nowhere is this danger more visible than in Iran, where the specter of a “day zero” scenario is no longer a distant hypothetical but a looming reality for Tehran’s more than 9 million residents. Day zero — a term that entered global awareness during Cape Town’s 2018 crisis — refers to the moment when municipal water supplies are effectively exhausted and taps run dry. In Tehran, dam reserves are now at historically low levels, with water storage hovering between 9 percent and 14 percent of capacity. This is the lowest level in decades and in some cases the lowest in recorded history.
Groundwater depletion has been equally alarming: the water levels in aquifers beneath the capital have sunk by about 12 meters in two decades, triggering dangerous land subsidence that is damaging roads, buildings and critical infrastructure. Water bodies have shriveled to a fraction of their original size, with Lake Urmia’s volume collapsing from 2 billion cubic meters to only about 500 million — an ecological tragedy that has destroyed habitats and livelihoods. Authorities have begun closing public offices during heat waves and rationing electricity in an effort to slow the collapse, but these measures barely scratch the surface of a problem decades in the making.
The crisis is not limited to Iran. Across the wider region, similar signs of ecological distress are multiplying. Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul, is depleting its groundwater at a rate of 44 million cubic meters per year, with half of its wells already dry. Kabul’s population has ballooned in recent decades, placing unsustainable demands on aquifers that were never designed to serve such a large urban area. As temperatures climb and populations grow, vulnerability to disruptions in desalination capacity becomes a critical national security concern.
The most vulnerable areas share certain characteristics: rapid population growth, overreliance on a single water source, weak or outdated infrastructure and political or economic instability that limits the ability to invest in long-term solutions. In Tehran, for example, the northern, wealthier districts enjoy comparatively good water quality and pressure, while the poorer southern neighborhoods face contamination risks and frequent shortages — an environmental injustice that deepens social divisions.
In rural Iran, farmers depend on outdated irrigation techniques that waste enormous quantities of water; in some regions, agricultural water use efficiency is below 40 percent. Kabul’s vulnerability stems from its unchecked urban expansion, lack of coordinated groundwater regulation and limited foreign aid for infrastructure repair.
The crisis is not limited to Iran. Across the wider region, similar signs of ecological distress are multiplying
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
At the heart of this escalating crisis is the intensifying impact of climate change. The Middle East is already one of the hottest and driest regions on Earth, but climate models predict a 20 percent to 30 percent decline in rainfall by mid-century, combined with a sharp increase in average temperatures.
For Iran, the effects are already visible: rainfall in recent years has been about 50 percent below long-term averages. Extended droughts are becoming the norm, not the exception, with multiyear dry periods devastating agriculture, drying out rivers and accelerating the depletion of groundwater reserves. Climate change is not acting alone; it is amplifying and exposing decades of poor water management, short-sighted infrastructure planning and the relentless expansion of urban areas without adequate environmental oversight.
The legacy of poor water management is particularly damaging in Iran, where decades of aggressive dam construction — often pursued for political prestige rather than environmental need — have altered river systems, disrupted ecosystems and undermined the natural replenishment of aquifers.
Across the Middle East, agriculture consumes the lion’s share of water resources, yet outdated methods result in enormous waste. In Iran, billions of cubic meters of water are lost each year to inefficient irrigation. Compounding this is the widespread lack of maintenance for water delivery systems, leading to losses of nearly 30 percent through leaks and aging infrastructure in Tehran. Some people argue that governance failures, including political interference, a lack of transparency and corruption in water-related decision-making, have prevented meaningful reforms.
Population growth and urbanization have placed additional strain on these fragile systems. Iran’s population has surged from about 28 million in 1969 to more than 90 million in 2025. This dramatic growth, combined with rural-to-urban migration, has driven explosive demand for water in cities. In Kabul, uncontrolled urban expansion has paved over natural recharge zones for groundwater, further accelerating depletion.
Without urgent intervention, the consequences will be severe. Water scarcity threatens to disrupt economies by reducing agricultural productivity, raising food prices and increasing reliance on costly imports. It could fuel social unrest, particularly in countries where inequality already shapes access to essential resources.
In fragile states such as Afghanistan, the collapse of water systems could trigger mass displacement, as people migrate in search of drinkable water. And in geopolitically tense regions, competition over shared water resources could inflame existing conflicts.
Yet the problems, while daunting, are not insurmountable. Several policy measures could mitigate the worst impacts and lay the foundation for long-term water resilience.
Reforming water pricing is one such step: by removing subsidies that encourage overuse and introducing tiered pricing structures, governments can incentivize conservation among both households and industries. In agriculture, switching to high-efficiency irrigation systems such as drip or sprinkler technology, reducing the cultivation of water-intensive crops and restoring natural wetlands to support groundwater recharge can yield substantial savings. Addressing leakage through large-scale infrastructure rehabilitation is equally important, as modernized pipes and reservoirs can sharply reduce losses.
The crisis is not limited to Iran. Across the wider region, similar signs of ecological distress are multiplying
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh
Technological innovation offers another path forward. Solar-powered desalination plants, such as Jordan’s ambitious Aqaba-Amman project, demonstrate how renewable energy can reduce the environmental costs of producing fresh water from seawater. Wastewater recycling and treatment can expand nontraditional water sources, reducing dependence on dwindling freshwater reserves.
Groundwater recharge projects — using stormwater or treated wastewater — can help restore aquifers, while carefully planned cloud seeding programs may modestly boost rainfall in some areas. These approaches must be integrated into broader, more sustainable water strategies rather than deployed as short-term fixes.
Regional cooperation will be critical, especially where countries share transboundary rivers, lakes or aquifers. Agreements to manage shared resources equitably can reduce the risk of conflict and ensure that all parties have a stake in sustainable use. Institutional reform is essential, particularly in Iran, where independent oversight bodies, transparent data sharing and collaboration between scientists and policymakers could significantly improve water governance.
Financing these measures will require a mix of domestic investment, public-private partnerships and international assistance. The Middle East and North Africa region will need an estimated $100 billion in water infrastructure investment by 2030. Education campaigns — targeting both the public and political leadership — can help shift attitudes toward water conservation and encourage long-term stewardship. Water security must be embedded in school curricula, media programming and civic initiatives to build a culture of responsibility around one of the planet’s most precious resources.
In conclusion, parts of the Middle East stand at a crossroads. If current trends continue unchecked, these areas could face a wave of humanitarian, economic and political crises driven by something as fundamental as an inability to provide clean water. But with decisive action — anchored in sound policy, innovative technology and regional cooperation — it is still possible to avert the worst outcomes.
Tehran’s looming day zero, Kabul’s collapsing wells and the shrinking of Lake Urmia are all warnings. Whether they become a prelude to regional collapse or a catalyst for transformative change depends on the choices made today. Water scarcity is no longer a distant problem — it is the Middle East’s defining environmental challenge of our time and time is already running out.
• Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated Iranian American political scientist. X: @Dr_Rafizadeh