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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to visit the US to attend the upcoming high-level week at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. Political circles in Ankara are anticipating a bilateral meeting between Erdogan and his American counterpart, Donald Trump, on the sidelines of the event, although there has been no official confirmation.

I recently came across an interesting piece by prominent Turkish journalist Murat Yetkin, who has followed the high-level visits made by the president and Turkiye’s foreign policy cadre for many years. He argued that “it may be in Turkiye’s best interest not to insist too strongly on arranging a high-profile Erdogan-Trump meeting.”

He supported his view by pointing to the many unresolved issues between Ankara and Washington, from the war in Gaza to Israel’s aggression in the broader region. There is also the situation in Syria and the presence of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, along with tensions over defense procurement and arms sales. Yetkin stated that the weight of all these issues, combined with Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign leaders and Erdogan’s own uncompromising stance, could risk such a meeting producing an undesirable outcome.

It is still unclear whether any Erdogan-Trump meeting will take place. However, I can be certain of two things. First, in Trump’s world, strongmen are at the top of the list. He gets along better with personalities such as Erdogan. Second, among all the structural and current issues that test Turkish-American relations, Syria would be the main topic at any meeting between the two leaders.

Turkiye wants to see the SDF adhere to the March deal and integrate into the Syrian national security forces

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

It is not easy to decipher the current US policy in Syria, even for those in Ankara. There is apparently one key individual in the narrow foreign policy-making circle in the White House who holds the Syria file: Tom Barrack. Barrack is not only the US special envoy for Syria and a long-time adviser and friend of Trump, but also the US ambassador to Turkiye, a critical post. Barrack’s statements have been supportive of Syria’s territorial integrity. He has also urged the SDF to move more quickly to ratify a March deal with Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa to bring areas it runs under state authority and to integrate the group into the national security forces. This is the policy that Ankara wants the US to follow in Syria.

At the same time, the US is undergoing a paradigm shift that is shaping its Syria policy. The ousting in the last week of a “handful” of US diplomats focused on Syria has been interpreted as being a result of a divergence in views between staffers and Barrack on the issue of the SDF and Al-Sharaa.

Barrack has a challenging task. He is trying to do three things at once: promote US policies that will aid Syria’s stability, secure Trump’s support for these policies despite Israel’s opposition, and navigate the tensions between American allies in Syria. There are currently tensions among key US allies: between the SDF and Turkiye on one front and between Turkiye and Israel on another.

Turkiye has launched a “terror-free Turkiye” initiative, which seeks the dissolution of the PKK and its branches, including the SDF, and the laying down of its arms. Within this process, Turkiye wants to see the SDF adhere to the March deal and integrate into the Syrian national security forces. Currently, Ankara is avoiding interfering with this process, exercising strategic patience; however, at the same time, that patience is not limitless. Media reports indicate that military action against the SDF is imminent if it does not take the necessary steps toward integration.

Turkiye views both Israel and the SDF as favoring a divided Syria to undermine Al-Sharaa’s control over the country

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Coming to the possibility of a Turkish intervention in Syria, I think Ankara would only act militarily if it were to see a direct threat to Syria’s unity and territorial integrity. Here, Israel comes to the equation.

The current Israeli government is determined to prevent Syria’s unification and economic development, bombing targets across the country at will and supporting the SDF at all costs. Turkiye views both Israel and the SDF as favoring a divided Syria to undermine Al-Sharaa’s control over the country.

Turkiye is not against the US’ presence in Syria, but rather its support for the SDF. The new team in Washington understands Ankara’s concerns regarding the SDF.

While Israel and the SDF may be proponents of a fragmented and unstable Syria, there are other parties — namely Turkiye, the Arab world and, most importantly, the Syrian government — that want the country to be stable at all costs.

Turkish-Arab relations are growing in light of the Israeli aggression in the region. This has certainly shifted the perception of Turkiye’s role in the Middle East and in Syria in particular. This is a significant paradigm shift. The coming few days will be critical to see whether Erdogan and Trump hold a high-level meeting and what any such meeting means for Syria.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz