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What’s next for Hamas after its leader Yahya Sinwar’s death?

People stand in front of the billboard showing late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Lebanon's Hezbollah and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen October 18, 2024. (REUTERS)
People stand in front of the billboard showing late Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar as protesters, mainly Houthi supporters, rally to show support to Lebanon's Hezbollah and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, in Sanaa, Yemen October 18, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 19 October 2024

What’s next for Hamas after its leader Yahya Sinwar’s death?

What’s next for Hamas after its leader Yahya Sinwar’s death?
  • If Hamas names a replacement for Sinwar, Khaled Mashaal and Khalil Al-Hayya, both members of Hamas’ political leadership based in Qatar, are widely considered the most likely contenders

BEIRUT: The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar by Israeli forces in Gaza this week leaves the Palestinian militant group considering new leadership for the second time in less than three months.
Will Hamas now turn away from its hard-line wing or will it double down, and what will it mean for the group’s future and for the revival of ceasefire and hostage exchange negotiations between Hamas and Israel?
Sinwar replaced Hamas’ previous leader, Ismail Haniyeh, after Haniyeh was killed in July in a blast in Iran that was widely blamed on Israel.
As an architect of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack in southern Israel that sparked the war in Gaza, Sinwar was a defiant choice at a time when some expected the militant group to take a more conciliatory approach and seek to end the conflict.
Sinwar’s killing appeared to be a chance front-line encounter with Israeli troops on Wednesday.
Sinwar’s death has little immediate impact on Hamas
Killing Sinwar marked a major symbolic victory for Israel in its yearlong war against Hamas in Gaza. But it has also allowed Hamas to claim him as a hero who was killed in the battlefield, not hiding in a tunnel.
While the group is on the defensive and has been largely forced underground in Gaza, it continues to fight Israeli forces in the enclave and to exert political influence.
Bassem Naim, a Qatar-based member of the group’s political bureau, said in a statement that Israel had killed other Hamas leaders, including its founding leader, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, and his successor, Abdel Aziz Rantisi, who were killed by airstrikes in 2004.
“Hamas each time became stronger and more popular, and these leaders became an icon for future generations,” he said.
The impact of Sinwar’s death on military operations in Gaza remains to be seen. But Sadeq Abu Amer, head of the Turkiye-based think tank Palestinian Dialogue Group, said that “there will be no significant impact on the political structure of Hamas.”
When Sinwar was appointed, “the situation was basically arranged so that Hamas could manage its political affairs and manage the organization independently of Sinwar” because of the difficulties of communication between Sinwar and Hamas’ political leaders outside of Gaza, he said.
Most matters were managed by “collective leadership” between the head of the group’s Shoura Council and officials in charge of the West Bank, Gaza and regions abroad, he said. The notable exception: Sinwar controlled all matters related to Israeli hostages in Gaza.
The search for a replacement
Sinwar’s term was a temporary one and would have expired in the second half of 2025.
“Hamas will not move urgently at the present time to choose a head of the political bureau,” Thabet Al-Amour, a political analyst in Gaza, said. He noted that Khalil Al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy based in Qatar, was already managing executive affairs and can continue to do so.
Abu Amer agreed that Hamas might opt to keep running with the current “formula of collective leadership.” Another possibility, he said would be the election of one of the three regional leaders: Al-Hayya, who is in charge of Gaza; Zaher Jibril, in charge of the West Bank; or Khaled Mashaal, in charge of areas outside of the Palestinian territories.
The group also might select a leader without publicly announcing the name “for security reasons,” he said.
Who are the contenders?
If Hamas names a replacement for Sinwar, Khaled Mashaal and Khalil Al-Hayya, both members of Hamas’ political leadership based in Qatar, are widely considered the most likely contenders.
Al-Hayya had served as Sinwar’s deputy and as the head of the group’s delegation in ceasefire negotiations, both in the current war and during a previous conflict in 2014. He is a longtime official with the group and survived an Israeli airstrike that hit his home in Gaza in 2007, killing several of his family members.
Al-Hayya is seen as close to Iran, but as less of a hard-liner than Sinwar. He was close to Haniyeh.
In an interview with The Associated Press in April, Al-Hayya said Hamas was willing to agree to truce of at least five years with Israel and that if an independent Palestinian state were created along 1967 borders, the group would dissolve its military wing and become a purely political party.
Mashaal, who served as the group’s political leader from 1996 to 2017, is seen as a relatively moderate figure. He has good relations with Turkiye and Qatar, although his relations with Iran, Syria and Hezbollah have been troubled due to his support for the Syrian opposition in the country’s 2011 civil war.
Moussa Abu Marzouk, a founding member of Hamas and the first head of its political bureau, is another potential candidate who is seen as a moderate.
Some have suggested that Sinwar’s brother, Mohammed, a key military figure in Gaza, could replace him — if he is still alive. Al-Amour downplayed that possibility.
“Mohammed Sinwar is the head of the field battle, but he will not be Sinwar’s heir as head of the political bureau,” he said. Rather, Al-Amour said the death of Sinwar, “one of the most prominent hawks within the movement,” is likely to lead to “the advancement of a trend or direction that can be described as doves” via the group’s leadership abroad.
Ceasefire negotiations
In the first public statement by a Hamas official after Sinwar’s death, Al-Hayya appeared to take a hard line on negotiations for a ceasefire deal that would see the release of some 100 Israeli hostages captured in the Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war and who are believed to be held in Gaza.
There will be no hostage release without “the end of the aggression on Gaza and the withdrawal (of Israeli forces) from Gaza,” Al-Hayya said.
But some believe that the group may now moderate its stance.
In particular, Mashaal “shows more flexibility when it comes to collaborating with the Qataris and Egyptians to reach ceasefire in Gaza, which would also have a positive impact on the situation in Lebanon,” Saad Abdullah Al-Hamid, a Saudi political analyst, said.
But Sinwar’s death could leave some “practical difficulties in completing a prisoner exchange,” Abu Amer said.
The Gaza-based leader was “the only one in the Hamas leadership who held the secrets of this file,” he said, including the location of all the hostages.


Israel identifies body of hostage Idan Shtivi retrieved from Gaza

Israel identifies body of hostage Idan Shtivi retrieved from Gaza
Updated 4 sec ago

Israel identifies body of hostage Idan Shtivi retrieved from Gaza

Israel identifies body of hostage Idan Shtivi retrieved from Gaza
  • Netanyahu’s office had announced on Friday the retrieval of Ilan Weiss’s body
  • With Weiss and Shtivi’s bodies recovered, Israel says 48 hostages remain in Gaza

TEL AVIV: Israel identified the body of hostage Idan Shtivi, recovered from the Gaza Strip in a military operation this week that retrieved the remains of two hostages, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Saturday.

Netanyahu’s office had announced on Friday the retrieval of Ilan Weiss’s body along with the remains of another hostage, whose identity is now known to be that of Shtivi but had not been disclosed at the time.

With Weiss and Shtivi’s bodies recovered, Israel says 48 hostages remain in Gaza, of whom only 20 are believed to be alive.

“Idan Shtivi was abducted from the Tel Gama area and brutally murdered by Hamas terrorists after acting to rescue and evacuate others from the Nova music festival on October 7, 2023. He was 28 years old at the time of his death,” the Israeli military said on Saturday in a statement.

Around 1,200 people were killed and about 251 taken hostage when the Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israeli southern communities in October 2023, Israel’s tallies show.

Gaza’s health ministry says Israel’s subsequent military assault has killed over 63,000 Palestinians. The war has displaced nearly the enclave’s entire population, devastated infrastructure, and triggered a humanitarian crisis.


Are Israel’s internal probes into Gaza war crimes just a smokescreen of accountability?

Are Israel’s internal probes into Gaza war crimes just a smokescreen of accountability?
Updated 3 min 45 sec ago

Are Israel’s internal probes into Gaza war crimes just a smokescreen of accountability?

Are Israel’s internal probes into Gaza war crimes just a smokescreen of accountability?
  • Israel claims its internal mechanisms are robust, independent, and legally credible, citing international law principles like complementarity
  • Observers say self-investigations protect military personnel from prosecution while projecting appearance of compliance with democratic norms

LONDON: As international concern has grown over alleged Israeli war crimes in the occupied Palestinian territories since October 2023, Israel has repeatedly pledged to investigate and hold perpetrators to account. But what, if anything, have those investigations achieved?

The latest incident to spark global outrage occurred on Aug. 25, when Israel struck Al-Nasser Hospital, Gaza’s main medical facility in the south. At least 20 people were killed, including rescuers, critically ill patients, medical staff, and five journalists, and 50 others were injured, according to the World Health Organization.

A livestream by Al Ghad TV captured a second airstrike hitting a crowd outside the hospital, where victims, rescuers, and journalists had gathered. Medical staff told the BBC that the same spot had already been struck just ten minutes earlier.

 

 

Rights groups and world leaders condemned the twin strike and called for immediate investigations.

The Foreign Press Association in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories described the attack as a “turning point,” urging Israel to “halt its abhorrent practice of targeting journalists.”

For its part, the Committee to Protect Journalists warned that the killing of the five journalists, including staff for The Associated Press, Al Jazeera, and Reuters, could constitute a war crime.

“Journalists are civilians. They must never be targeted in war. And to do so is a war crime,” Jodie Ginsberg, CPJ’s chief executive, said in a statement.

As on many previous occasions when accused of potential war crimes, Israel quickly promised to investigate. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the double attack on Al-Nasser was a “tragic mishap,” which his country “deeply regrets.”

 

 

He added that the military authorities were “conducting a thorough investigation.”

But the next day, the UN pressed Israel to go beyond pledges and deliver results.

“There needs to be justice,” UN Human Rights Office spokesman Thameen Al-Kheetan told AFP in Geneva, stressing that the large number of journalists killed in the Gaza war “raises many, many questions.”

He added that while Israel has previously announced inquiries into such killings, “we haven’t seen results or accountability measures yet.”

Hours later, Israel released an “initial inquiry,” saying its troops had “identified a camera that was positioned by Hamas in the area of Al-Nasser Hospital.”

They claimed the camera was “being used to observe the activity of Israeli Defense Forces troops,” and so they “operated to remove the threat by striking and dismantling the camera.”

When Israel does not launch inquiries, it resorts to outright denials. Despite arguing its forces do not target journalists, its officials’ own public remarks contradict this.

Earlier this month, following the killing of Al Jazeera journalist Anas Al-Sharif and four colleagues outside Al-Shifa Hospital, Israeli officials claimed without evidence that Al-Sharif was part of a Hamas cell.

IN NUMBERS

88% Israeli probes into Gaza abuses stalled or closed without findings.

6 War-crime cases ended with admission of error out of 52.

7 Closed with findings of no violation.

39 Remain “under review” or lack reported outcomes.

(Source: Action on Armed Violence)

Critics say Israel’s self-investigation into high-profile allegations of wrongdoing follows a familiar pattern. Research published in early August by UK-based charity Action on Armed Violence found the IDF’s system of probes riddled with impunity.

AOAV’s research highlighted that of 52 high-profile investigations into suspected war crimes in Gaza and the occupied West Bank since October 2023, 88 percent remain “under review” or were closed with no findings. Only one resulted in a prison sentence.

Those cases involved more than 1,300 deaths, 1,880 injuries, and two cases of torture. Only three incidents led to dismissals or reprimands.

Critics warn that Israel’s system of self-investigation enables continued abuses and hollow claims to democratic rule of law. But can this “political theater,” as AOAV put it, withstand growing international scrutiny?

“We’ve basically had years, if not decades, of established fact that this is the trend for the Israeli military and security forces in general — the pattern of systematic impunity has been very evident,” said Amjad Iraqi, senior Israel-Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group.

“Both Palestinian and Israeli organizations have documented this for ages, so this latest study is only (re)affirming what has been a longstanding pattern,” Iraqi told Arab News. “What this means is that the knowledge is there; the evidence is there.”

What is missing, Iraqi said, is political will abroad. “With such a highly documented war — (marked by) countless suspected war crimes and possible crimes against humanity — there is very little wiggle room,” he added, referring to the onslaught on Gaza.

“There is an abundance of facts and evidence, and Israeli authorities cannot escape them.”

Since Oct. 7, 2023, when the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza, the UN Human Rights Council, the Commission of Inquiry, and the International Criminal Court have all accused Israel of crimes ranging from indiscriminate attacks on civilians to deliberate starvation and torture — allegations Israel has denied.

On Aug. 22, the UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification confirmed famine in Gaza City and surrounding areas, with more than half a million people — a quarter of the population — across the enclave facing “catastrophic” levels of hunger. The report described the crisis as “entirely man-made.”

Israel dismissed the findings as an “outright lie” and went as far as to accuse the IPC of using unreliable data controlled by Hamas. But bodies including Medecins Sans Frontieres have also been collecting their own data on acute malnutrition.

In addition, aid agencies have long accused Israel of obstructing food deliveries and even “weaponizing aid.” The UN reported that between late May and late June, at least 1,373 Gazans were killed while seeking food at aid distribution sites run by the US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.

Israel consistently responds to criticism about its internal investigations by asserting that its inquiries are prompt, independent, and in line with both Israeli and international law, and that they demonstrate the country’s commitment to accountability.

In official statements given to AOAV, the IDF emphasized the existence of a permanent independent fact-finding mechanism, which it claims operates “outside the chain of command” and is “subordinate to the Chief of Staff,” with “professional independence.”

The IDF states that “exceptional incidents” are reviewed to clarify circumstances and, where there is “a prima facie reasonable suspicion of a criminal offense,” a criminal investigation is opened and run by Military Police.

Israeli officials claim that international courts like the ICC have no jurisdiction precisely because Israel’s domestic mechanism is “robust and credible,” referencing the international law principle of complementarity.

Despite Israel’s denials, international scrutiny continues to mount. Iraqi noted that “even as the Israeli military carries out these policies and practices, its leaders have openly expressed concern.”

“Much of what has happened over the past two years has crossed multiple lines under international law,” he said. “And generals themselves have acknowledged fears of greater exposure to international prosecution.

“The fact that governments are speaking more openly, and that lawsuits invoking universal jurisdiction are being filed against senior commanders and generals, has begun to worry the Israeli military.”

Indeed, Canada’s federal police opened a “structural investigation” in June into alleged crimes in Gaza. The Times of Israel reported that several Canadian citizens who served in the IDF now fear returning home where they could face prosecution.

Iraqi said that IDF personnel “have been accustomed to impunity, relying on the facade of complementarity to shield themselves from outside accountability.”

“But as the ICC arrest warrants and the findings of many governments show, the facade is widely recognized,” he added, reiterating that the question is “whether they will ultimately act on it.”

On Nov. 21 last year, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza since Oct. 2023.

Though no ICC member state has acted to detain them, Netanyahu has avoided travel to countries bound by the Rome Statute. But when he visited Hungary in April, its leadership welcomed him and said it would leave the ICC because it has become “political.”

And while many governments around the world have condemned Israel’s actions in Gaza, they have stopped short of action.

 

 

For example, a joint statement by the UK, Australia, Germany, Italy, France, Canada, Austria, Norway, and New Zealand criticized Israel’s latest Gaza offensive, warning that it will “aggravate the catastrophic humanitarian situation… endanger the lives of hostages,” and “risk violating international humanitarian law.”

Iraqi stressed that “change is urgently needed because real consequences abroad could begin to shift political and military behavior.”

“It comes down to international actors calling the bluff of internal Israeli investigations, which rarely lead to anything substantial, and pressing for genuine accountability to curb Israeli policies and practices,” he said.

“It may not be immediate, and the legal process will always take time. But the psychological effect is already significant, as it could influence behavior and help curb some of the worst excesses, especially at this moment.”
 

 


Gaza aid flotilla ‘should not have to exist’ says Thunberg

Gaza aid flotilla ‘should not have to exist’ says Thunberg
Updated 51 min 30 sec ago

Gaza aid flotilla ‘should not have to exist’ says Thunberg

Gaza aid flotilla ‘should not have to exist’ says Thunberg
  • “It should not have to be up to us,” said the 22-year-old Swedish campaigner
  • Two attempts by activists to deliver aid by ship to Gaza, in June and July, were blocked by Israel

BARCELONA: Aid flotillas like the one preparing to leave for Gaza would not be necessary if governments upheld international law, rights activist Greta Thunberg told AFP Saturday.

“It should not have to be up to us,” said the 22-year-old Swedish campaigner, who will join the flotilla when it sets off from Barcelona on Sunday.

“A mission like this should not have to exist,” she added.

“It is the responsibility of countries, of our governments and elected officials to act to try to uphold international law, to prevent war crimes, to prevent genocide,” she said.

“That is their legal duty to do. And they are failing to do so. And thereby betraying Palestinians but also all of humanity.”

The latest aid expedition toward Gaza is organized by a group called the Global Sumud Flotilla, which describes itself as an “independent” organization. Sumud is the Arab word for perseverance.

They say that boats from ports around the world will converge on Gaza in a peaceful bid to open a humanitarian corridor.

“Our aim is to get to Gaza, to deliver the humanitarian aid, announce the opening of a humanitarian corridor and then bring more aid, and then thus also ending, breaking Israel’s illegal and inhumane siege on Gaza,” said Thunberg.

Brazilian activist Thiago Avila told journalists in Barcelona: “This will be the largest solidarity mission in history, with more people and more boats than all previous attempts combined.”

Two attempts by activists to deliver aid by ship to Gaza, in June and July, were blocked by Israel.

Troops boarded their vessels and detained the activists, bringing them ashore in Israel before expelling them. Thunberg was among the 12 activists on board the June flotilla.

The organizers of this latest flotilla have not said exactly when they are setting off, nor how many boats will leave from Barcelona.

The UN on August 22 declared a famine in Gaza, blaming Israel’s “systematic obstruction” of aid, sparking furious denials from the Israeli authorities.


Ancient tombs unearthed in Iraq due to drought

Ancient tombs unearthed in Iraq due to drought
Updated 58 min 25 sec ago

Ancient tombs unearthed in Iraq due to drought

Ancient tombs unearthed in Iraq due to drought
  • The newly discovered tombs are believed to date back to the Hellenistic or Hellenistic-Seleucid period, according to Brefkany

KHANKE, Iraq: Archaeologists in drought-hit Iraq have discovered 40 ancient tombs after water levels in the country’s largest reservoir declined, an antiquities official said on Saturday.
The tombs, believed to be over 2,300 years old, were unearthed at the edges of the Mosul Dam reservoir in the Khanke region of Duhok province in the country’s north.
“So far, we have discovered approximately 40 tombs,” said Bekas Brefkany, the director of antiquities in Duhok, who is leading the archaeological work at the site.

BACKGROUND

Iraq, which is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, has been facing rising temperatures, chronic water shortages, and year-on-year droughts.

His team surveyed the area in 2023 but only spotted parts of a few tombs.
They were only able to work on the site when water levels dropped “to their lowest” this year, Brefkany said.
In recent years, archaeologists have uncovered ruins dating back thousands of years in the same area, as a result of droughts that have plagued Iraq for five consecutive years.
“The droughts have a significant impact on many aspects, like agriculture and electricity. But, for us archaeologists ... it allows us to do excavation work,” Brefkany said.
The newly discovered tombs are believed to date back to the Hellenistic or Hellenistic-Seleucid period, according to Brefkany.
He added that his team was working to excavate the tombs to transfer them to the Duhok Museum for further study and preservation, before the area is submerged again.
Iraq, which is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, has been facing rising temperatures, chronic water shortages, and year-on-year droughts.
Authorities have warned that this year has been one of the driest since 1933, and water reserves are down to only eight percent of their full capacity.
They also blame upstream dams built in Iran and Turkiye for dramatically lowering the flow of the once-mighty Tigris and Euphrates, which have irrigated Iraq for millennia.

 


Hostage’s mother vows to hold Netanyahu to account if son dies

Hostage’s mother vows to hold Netanyahu to account if son dies
Updated 30 August 2025

Hostage’s mother vows to hold Netanyahu to account if son dies

Hostage’s mother vows to hold Netanyahu to account if son dies
  • “If Netanyahu chooses to occupy the Gaza Strip instead of the current outline for a deal, it will be the execution of our hostages,” mother of hostage Matan Zangauker said
  • “I will personally ensure that you are charged with premeditated murder“

TEL AVIV: The mother of an Israeli hostage vowed Saturday to seek the prosecution of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if his planned new offensive in Gaza leads to her son’s death in captivity.

“If Netanyahu chooses to occupy the Gaza Strip instead of the current outline for a deal, it will be the execution of our hostages and dear soldiers,” Einav Zangauker, mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, said.

Earlier this month, Hamas agreed to a framework for a truce and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory but Israel has yet to give an official response.

“Netanyahu, if my Matan returns in a coffin, not only will he and I pay the price, I will personally ensure that you are charged with premeditated murder,” she told a rally in Tel Aviv demanding the safe return of the hostages.

Matan Zangauker was abducted from his home in Kibbutz Nir Oz along with his Israeli-Mexican girlfriend Ilana Gritzewsky, as they tried to shelter in their safe room during Hamas’s October 2023 attack that triggered the war.

Gritzewsky was released in November 2023, during the first of only two truces during nearly 23 months of fighting.

Einav Zangauker has since become a key figure in the campaign for the safe release of the hostages.