ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE: US President Donald Trump departed Washington aboard Air Force One on Friday to head to a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska for discussions about a possible ceasefire deal for Ukraine.
Trump was accompanied by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, as well as other top aides, the White House said.
鈥淗IGH STAKES!!!鈥 Trump wrote on his social media platform before leaving the White House for the trip.
The sit-down offers Trump a chance to prove to the world that he is both a master dealmaker and a global peacemaker. He and his allies have cast him as a heavyweight negotiator who can find a way to bring the slaughter to a close, something he used to boast he could do quickly.
For Putin, a summit with Trump offers a long-sought opportunity to try to negotiate a deal that would cement Russia鈥檚 gains, block Kyiv鈥檚 bid to join the NATO military alliance and eventually pull Ukraine back into Moscow鈥檚 orbit.
There are significant risks for Trump. By bringing Putin onto US soil, the president is giving Russia鈥檚 leader the validation he desires after his ostracization following his invasion of Ukraine 3 1/2 years ago. The exclusion of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from the summit also deals a heavy blow to the West鈥檚 policy of 鈥渘othing about Ukraine without Ukraine鈥 and invites the possibility that Trump could agree to a deal that Ukraine does not want.
Any success is far from assured, especially as Russia and Ukraine remain far apart in their demands for peace. Putin has long resisted any temporary ceasefire, linking it to a halt in Western arms supplies and a freeze on Ukraine鈥檚 mobilization efforts, which were conditions rejected by Kyiv and its Western allies.
Trump on Thursday said there was a 25 percent chance that the summit would fail, but he also floated the idea that if the meeting succeeds, he could bring Zelensky to Alaska for a subsequent, three-way meeting, a possibility that Russia hasn鈥檛 agreed to.
When asked in Anchorage about Trump鈥檚 estimate of a 25 percent chance of failure, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters that Russia 鈥渘ever plans ahead.鈥
鈥淲e know that we have arguments, a clear, understandable position. We will state it,鈥 he said in footage posted to the Russian Foreign Ministry鈥檚 Telegram channel.
Trump said in a Fox News radio interview Thursday that he didn鈥檛 know if they would get 鈥渁n immediate ceasefire鈥 but he wanted a broad peace deal done quickly. That seemingly echoes Putin鈥檚 longtime argument that Russia favors a comprehensive deal to end the fighting, reflecting its demands, not a temporary halt to hostilities.
The Kremlin said Trump and Putin will first sit down for a one-on-one discussion, followed by the two delegations meeting and talks continuing over 鈥渁 working breakfast.鈥 They are then expected to hold a joint press conference.
Trump has offered shifting explanations for his meeting goals
In the days leading up to the summit, set for a military base near Anchorage, Trump described it as 鈥渞eally a feel-out meeting.鈥 But he鈥檚 also warned of 鈥渧ery severe consequences鈥 for Russia if Putin doesn鈥檛 agree to end the war and said that though Putin might bully other leaders, 鈥淗e鈥檚 not going to mess around with me.鈥
Trump鈥檚 repeated suggestions that a deal would likely involve 鈥渟ome swapping of territories鈥 鈥 which disappointed Ukraine and European allies 鈥 along with his controversial history with Putin have some skeptical about what kind of agreement can be reached.
Ian Kelly, a retired career foreign service officer who served as the US ambassador to Georgia during the Obama and first Trump administrations, said he sees 鈥渘o upside for the US, only an upside for Putin.鈥
鈥淭he best that can happen is nothing, and the worst that can happen is that Putin entices Trump into putting more pressure on Zelensky,鈥 Kelly said.
George Beebe, the former director of the CIA鈥檚 Russia analysis team who is now affiliated with the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said there鈥檚 a serious risk of blown expectations or misunderstandings for a high-level summit pulled together so quickly.
鈥淭hat said, I doubt President Trump would be going into a meeting like this unless there had been enough work done behind the scenes for him to feel that there is a decent chance that something concrete will come out of it,鈥 Beebe said.
Zelensky has time and again cast doubts on Putin鈥檚 willingness to negotiate in good faith. His European allies, who鈥檝e held increasingly urgent meetings with US leaders over the past week, have stressed the need for Ukraine to be involved in any peace talks.
Political commentators in Moscow, meanwhile, have relished that the summit leaves Ukraine and its European allies on the sidelines.
Dmitry Suslov, a pro-Kremlin voice, expressed hope that the summit will 鈥渄eepen a trans-Atlantic rift and weaken Europe鈥檚 position as the toughest enemy of Russia.鈥
The summit could have far-reaching implications
On his way to Anchorage Thursday, Putin arrived in Magadan in Russia鈥檚 Far East, according to Russian state news agency Interfax.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the visit would include meetings with the regional governor and stops at several key sites, including a stop to lay flowers at a WWII-era memorial honoring Soviet-American aviation cooperation.
Foreign governments will be watching closely to see how Trump reacts to Putin, likely gauging what the interaction might mean for their own dealings with the US president, who has eschewed traditional diplomacy for his own transactional approach to relationships.
The meeting comes as the war has caused heavy losses on both sides and drained resources.
Ukraine has held on far longer than some initially expected since the February 2022 invasion, but it is straining to hold off Russia鈥檚 much larger army, grappling with bombardments of its cities and fighting for every inch on the over 600-mile (1,000-kilometer) front line.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow and director of the Transatlantic Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, said US antagonists like China, Iran and North Korea will be paying attention to Trump鈥檚 posture to see 鈥渨hether or not the threats that he continues to make against Putin are indeed credible.鈥
鈥淥r, if has been the past track record, he continues to back down and look for ways to wiggle out of the kind of threats and pressure he has promised to apply,鈥 said Kendall-Taylor, who is also a former senior intelligence officer.
While some have objected to the location of the summit, Trump has said he thought it was 鈥渧ery respectful鈥 of Putin to come to the US instead of a meeting in Russia.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin Moscow-based analyst, observed that the choice of Alaska as the summit鈥檚 venue 鈥渦nderlined the distancing from Europe and Ukraine.鈥
Being on a military base allows the leaders to avoid protests and meet more securely, but the location carries its own significance because of its history and location.
Alaska, which the US purchased from Russia in 1867, is separated from Russia at its closest point by less than five kilometers and the international date line.
Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson was crucial to countering the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It continues to play a role today, as planes from the base still intercept Russian aircraft that regularly fly into US airspace.