Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad
Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad/node/2586091/middle-east
Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad
Russian soldiers stand by military pickups as they prepare to evacuate a position in Qamishli in northeastern Syria on December 12, 2024. (AFP)
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Updated 12 January 2025
AFP
Russia eyes Libya to replace Syria as Africa launchpad
On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries
Updated 12 January 2025
AFP
PARIS: The fall of Russian ally Bashar Assad in Syria has disrupted the Kremlin’s strategy not only for the Mediterranean but also for Africa, pushing it to focus on Libya as a potential foothold, experts say.
Russia runs a military port and an air base on the Syrian coast, designed to facilitate its operations in the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and sub-Saharan Africa, especially the Sahel, Sudan, and the Central African Republic.
However, this model is in jeopardy with the abrupt departure of the Syrian ruler.
Although Syria’s new leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, has called Russia an “important country,” saying “we do not want Russia to leave Syria in the way that some wish,” the reshuffling of cards in Syria is pushing Russia to seek a strategic retreat toward Libya.
In Libya, Russian mercenaries already support Khalifa Haftar, a field marshal controlling the east of the country, against the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) which has UN recognition and is supported by Turkiye.
“The goal is notably to preserve the ongoing Russian missions in Africa,” said Jalel Harchaoui at the RUSI think tank in the UK.
“It’s a self-preservation reflex” for Russia which is anxious “to mitigate the deterioration of its position in Syria,” he told AFP.
In May 2024, Swiss investigative consortium “All Eyes On Wagner” identified Russian activities at around 10 Libyan sites, including the port of Tobruk, where military equipment was delivered in February and April of last year.
There were around 800 Russian troops present in February 2024, and 1,800 in May.
On December 18 the Wall Street Journal, citing Libyan and American officials, said there had been a transfer of Russian radars and defense systems from Syria to Libya, including S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft batteries.
Since Assad’s fall on December 8, “a notable volume of Russian military resources has been shipped to Libya from Belarus and Russia,” said Harchaoui, adding there had been troop transfers as well.
Ukrainian intelligence claimed on January 3 that Moscow planned “to use Sparta and Sparta II cargo ships to transport military equipment and weapons” to Libya.
Beyond simply representing a necessary replacement of “one proxy with another,” the shift is a quest for “continuity,” said expert Emadeddin Badi on the Atlantic Council’s website, underscoring Libya’s role as “a component of a long-standing strategy to expand Moscow’s strategic foothold in the region.”
According to Badi, “Assad offered Moscow a foothold against NATO’s eastern flank and a stage to test military capabilities.”
Haftar, he said, presents a similar opportunity, “a means to disrupt western interests, exploit Libya’s fractured politics, and extend Moscow’s influence into Africa.”
The Tripoli government and Italy, Libya’s former colonial master, have expressed concern over Russian movements, closely observed by the European Union and NATO.
Several sources say the United States has tried to persuade Haftar to deny the Russians a permanent installation at the port of Tobruk that they have coveted since 2023.
It seems already clear the Kremlin will struggle to find the same level of ease in Libya that it had during Assad’s reign.
“Syria was convenient,” said Ulf Laessing, the Bamako-based head of the Sahel program at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
“It was this black box with no Western diplomats, no journalists. They could basically do what they wanted,” he told AFP.
“But in Libya, it will be much more complicated. It’s difficult to keep things secret there and Russian presence will be much more visible,” he said.
Moscow will also have to contend with other powers, including Turkiye, which is allied with the GNU, as well as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, who are patrons of Haftar.
In Libya, torn into two blocs since the ouster of longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi in February 2011, “everybody’s trying to work with both sides,” said Laessing.
Over the past year, even Turkiye has moved closer to Haftar, seeking potential cooperation on economic projects and diplomatic exchanges.
Russia will also be mindful to have a plan B should things go wrong for its Libyan ally.
“We must not repeat the mistake made in Syria, betting on a local dictator without an alternative,” said Vlad Shlepchenko, military correspondent for the pro-Kremlin media Tsargrad.
Haftar, meanwhile, is unlikely to want to turn his back on western countries whose tacit support he has enjoyed.
“There are probably limits to what the Russians can do in Libya,” said Laessing.
What new polling reveals about Palestinian pessimism and fading support for Hamas
A new poll shows optimism collapsing among Palestinians, with majorities voicing deep pessimism about the future and Gaza conflict
Support for Hamas has fallen sharply since Oct. 7, 2023, while most Palestinians express mistrust in all political factions and leaders
Updated 11 sec ago
ANAN TELLO & ROBERT EDWARDS
LONDON: Public opinion among Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem has undergone a pronounced shift, according to a recent poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center.
Almost two years after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel that triggered the war in Gaza, the survey presents a stark portrait of declining optimism, dwindling support for extremist factions, deep dissatisfaction with the Palestinian Authority, and growing questions over the future governance and the social fabric of the occupied Palestinian territories.
The poll, based on face-to-face interviews with a random sample of 715 adults in the West Bank and East Jerusalem between Sept. 4 and 8, reveals a sharp decline in optimism among Palestinians regarding both the future of their society and the trajectory of the ongoing war.
Palestinians wave their national flag and celebrate by a destroyed Israeli tank at the southern Gaza Strip fence east of Khan Younis on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. (AP)
Just 5.5 percent of respondents describe themselves as “very optimistic” and 35.5 percent as “optimistic” about Palestinians’ future, while 27.1 percent are “pessimistic” and 31.3 percent “very pessimistic.”
“Given the extent of the genocide, the famine, what is going on in the West Bank, with the orgy of settlement building, home demolitions, forced dispossession, among other things, I don’t think it’s at all surprising that optimism is in short supply,” Chris Doyle, director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding, told Arab News.
This climate of uncertainty is mirrored by a shift in how Palestinians assess the likely outcome of the ongoing conflict; just 25.9 percent believe the war will end in Hamas’s favor, down from a resounding 67.1 percent in October 2023. A plurality, 46.3 percent, expect neither side will achieve a definitive victory.
This pessimism is perhaps most visible in attitudes toward the actions of Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, when its militants breached the southern Israeli border in several places and went on to kill 1,200 people and take 250 hostage.
The attack triggered a massive Israeli retaliation in Gaza that has devastated the territory’s infrastructure, displaced 1.9 million people, killed at least 66,000 according to Palestinian health officials, and resulted in what a growing chorus of international observers are calling a genocide.
Displaced Palestinians move with their belongings southwards on a road in the Nuseirat refugee camp area in the central Gaza Strip on September 24, 2025, as Israel presses its air and ground offensive to capture Gaza City. (AFP)
While in September 2024 a near-majority (45 percent) said the Oct. 7 attack had served Palestinian national interests, that figure has now fallen to 30.9 percent. The proportion who said the attack harmed Palestinian interests has risen from 30.2 percent in May last year to 35.2 percent. Just over a quarter, 25.9 percent, believe the attack neither served nor harmed the national cause.
“The results are not surprising because they reflect the reality that the actions of Hamas have resulted in so much death and destruction among Palestinians,” Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the non-partisan Middle East Institute, told Arab News.
“Most ordinary Palestinians want a sense of security, dignity and decency in their lives, and Hamas never provided the leadership necessary to achieve those things.
“The last two years underscored how delusional the leadership of Hamas was and how out of touch it is with the Palestinian street.”
Yossi Mekelberg, a senior consulting fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme at think tank Chatham House in London, echoed this assessment.
“I don’t find the decline in support for Hamas surprising,” he told Arab News. “After all, regardless of the unjustified Israeli disproportionate response to Oct. 7, 2023, the Hamas attack has brought a horrific calamity on its own people, and it is ordinary people who pay the price.”
The prolonged devastation of the war in Gaza has eroded not only public optimism but also popular support for Hamas. Trust in the group, which has governed Gaza since 2007, has collapsed from 18.7 percent in October 2023 to just 8.5 percent.
Conversely, although trust in Fatah, which controls the Palestinian Authority that governs the West Bank, remains low at 11 percent, it has increased from 7.1 percent. A striking 68.5 percent do not trust any political faction at all.
No individual political figure commands broad respect, either. Marwan Barghouti, who was imprisoned by Israel in 2002 and is tipped as a potentially unifying leader, is the most trusted, at 5.3 percent, followed by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, at 3.9 percent, while 61 percent express no trust in any political leader.
Support for “armed resistance” as the preferred path to achieving national goals also dropped, from 33.7 percent in September 2023 to 27.8 percent. In contrast, the proportion that sees peaceful negotiations as the best method to achieve Palestinian aims has surged from 25.7 percent to 44.8 percent during the same period.
Similarly, support for ongoing military operations against Israeli targets fell to 32 percent from 41.5 percent. Meanwhile, opposition to such operations increased from 43.2 percent to 56.9 percent.
These shifts hint at war fatigue and a deepening degree of skepticism over the value of armed confrontation.
Abdelrahman Ayyash, a nonresident fellow at policy research think tank Century International, said the decline in support for Hamas does not necessarily equate to rising support for Israel or the US; instead, it reflects a pervasive sense of pessimism about the future and the Palestinian leadership.
“After a year of genocide, pessimism is natural,” Ayyash told Arab News. “It does not mean Palestinians have abandoned resistance; rather, they are questioning whether Hamas can secure tangible results under current conditions.
“Hamas seems to have calculated that Israel would prioritize the safe return of its hostages and therefore move toward a settlement. Instead, the Netanyahu government has repeatedly prioritized its vague ‘military objectives,’ even at the cost of Israeli captives.
“Combined with the repeated rejection of permanent ceasefire frameworks and unhinged escalatory actions such as the strike on Hamas leaders in Qatar, this has deepened disillusionment on the ground,” Ayyash continued.
“The JMCC poll captures this mood. At the same time, other surveys by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research show continued majorities blaming Israel and the US for Palestinian suffering, with pluralities still endorsing armed struggle over negotiations.
“These are numbers of frustration with leadership capacity, not sympathy for Israel.”
Opinions among the West Bank public on the outlook for Gaza’s postwar political status are divided and evolving. Just 34.4 percent now expect Gaza to remain under the control of Hamas after the war, down from 52.2 percent in May last year.
There has been a significant increase in the number expecting an international administration (27.8 percent, up from 17.3 percent) to take control, while 14.8 percent think the Palestinian Authority might administer postwar Gaza.
In terms of preferences, nearly half (44.2 percent) would still prefer Hamas to remain in control — a notable, though reduced, share — while 26.4 percent want the PA to govern, and 18.7 percent support an international administration.
This tension between current expectation and political preference reflects both a sense of resignation in the face of prevailing dynamics, and long-standing distrust of the PA. Disenchantment with the PA is acute, as 73.3 percent are dissatisfied with its stance on the war in Gaza. Only 23.1 percent expressed satisfaction, and public perceptions of the PA’s performance are overwhelmingly negative: 55.8 percent rated its performance as bad or very bad, compared with the 41.8 percent who viewed it as good.
Abbas’s approval rating stands at a modest 34.4 percent, albeit this is an increase from 26.8 percent in September 2023. Satisfaction with the government has fallen, with 65.3 percent dissatisfied and only 26.4 percent satisfied.
Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa’s personal approval rating is also split, with 44.1 percent regarding his performance as bad.
The financial crisis affecting the PA is a major source of public anxiety. Nearly half (45.7 percent) of those polled believe the crisis could lead to the collapse of the authority, while 48.8 percent said they do not expect it to collapse.
In the event of collapse, 41.1 percent predict Israel would divide the West Bank into cantons, or separate administrative areas, 29.4 percent foresee chaos and insecurity, and 23.8 percent anticipate a return to direct Israeli administration.
Asked about responsibility for the crisis, Palestinians primarily blame Israel (48.7 percent), followed by the PA itself (36.6 percent), and donor countries (11.6 percent).
This distribution of blame underscores the perception of dominant Israeli control over Palestinian economic life, but also reveals how little faith there is in the competence or integrity of the PA’s own leadership.
Meanwhile, support for a two-state solution has diminished, with just 25.9 percent now in favor, down from 32 percent in May 2024. A single-state, binational solution is now the most popular preference, with 30.8 percent in favor, up from 25 percent in September 2024.
Just over a quarter (25.3 percent) favor a generic “Palestinian state” without specifying a formula for this. Notably, 12.3 percent of people feel there is no solution to the conflict, a figure that speaks to the rising despair.
On the delicate topic of Palestinian unity, 59.6 percent doubt that reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas will occur in the next year. Blame for the ongoing division is widely spread: 14.4 percent hold Fatah accountable, only 3.5 percent blame Hamas, 25.9 percent fault both, 31 percent see the hand of Israel as decisive, and 10.2 percent blame the US.
One of the most consequential issues in regional geopolitics is the normalization of relations between Arabs and Israelis. The impact of the war has tilted expectations: 47.8 percent now believe the conflict will advance normalization projects, compared with just 38.5 percent in May 2024. Only 17.6 percent expect a setback to normalization efforts, down from 26 percent in May.
More than half of respondents (52.2 percent) believe that recent recognition of Palestinian statehood by European nations, including France and the UK, will have a positive impact, though 45.5 percent do not expect such recognition to change the situation materially.
In sum, the poll exposes a Palestinian public in the West Bank and East Jerusalem that is deeply divided and adrift between failed leadership, an unending state of conflict, and mounting economic pressures.
The data suggests a sense of war-weariness, a search for alternative strategies, and an overwhelming crisis of confidence in both political and institutional actors. However, Ayyash pointed out that public attitudes are liable to change.
“It’s important to note that wartime polling is fragile; mass killings, displacement, famine, ongoing trauma and fear make opinion fluid,” he said.
“Pessimism today could shift again depending on battlefield or diplomatic developments, including any credible ceasefire, a change in Israel’s position, or even a renewed regional escalation.
“Internationally, however, Palestinian narratives have gained traction: A recent NYT-Siena poll found, for the first time, more Americans sympathizing with Palestinians than with Israelis.
“So even as Hamas faces declining support in Gaza, the broader narrative of Palestinian armed resistance is resonating globally in unprecedented ways.”
The Emergency Response Rooms network in Sudan was awarded for ‘for building a resilient model of mutual aid amid war and state collapse that sustains millions of people with dignity.’
Updated 01 October 2025
AP
STOCKHOLM: The Right Livelihood Award was awarded Wednesday to activists from Sudan and Myanmar, where military and political violence devastates communities, to the Pacific Islands, where climate disaster threatens entire nations, and to Taiwan, which is the frequent target of threats and disinformation.
“As authoritarianism and division rise globally, the 2025 Right Livelihood Laureates are charting a different course: one rooted in collective action, resilience and democracy to create a livable future for all,” the Stockholm-based foundation said about the winners. It considered 159 nominees from 67 countries this year.
The youth-led organization Pacific Island Students Fighting Climate Change and Julian Aguon were awarded the prize “for carrying the call for climate justice to the world’s highest court.”
Justice for Myanmar was awarded “for their courage and their pioneering investigative methods in exposing and eroding the international support to Myanmar’s corrupt military.”
Audrey Tang from Taiwan won the prize “for advancing the social use of digital technology to empower citizens, renew democracy and heal divides.”
In Sudan, the Emergency Response Rooms network was awarded for “for building a resilient model of mutual aid amid war and state collapse that sustains millions of people with dignity.”
The Sudanese community-led network has become the backbone of the country’s humanitarian response amid war, displacement and state collapse. They helps includes healthcare, food assistance, and education, where many international aid organizations cannot reach, according to the foundation.
Created in 1980, the annual Right Livelihood Award honors efforts that the prize founder, Swedish-German philanthropist Jakob von Uexkull, felt were being ignored by the Nobel Prizes.
“At a time when violence, polarization and climate disasters are tearing communities apart, the 2025 Right Livelihood Laureates remind us that joining hands in collective action is humanity’s most powerful response,” said Ole von Uexkull, the nephew of the prize founder and the organization’s executive director.
“Their courage and vision create a tapestry of hope and show that a more just and livable future is possible,” he added.
Previous winners include Ukrainian human rights defender Oleksandra Matviichuk, Congolese surgeon Denis Mukwege and Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. Matviichuk and Mukwege received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022 and 2018, respectively.
The Right Livelihood Award comes just a week before the Nobel Prizes. The 2025 laureates will be given their awards on Dec. 2 in Stockholm. The size of the prize amount was not announced.
Smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Jarmaq on September 28, 2025.
Updated 01 October 2025
AFP
UN verifies 103 civilians killed in Lebanon since ceasefire
UN Human Rights Office called for renewed efforts for a durable truce, more than 10 months on from the agreed ceasefire
Israel has kept up near daily strikes on Lebanon despite the truce that sought to end more than a year of hostilities
Updated 01 October 2025
AFP
GENEVA: The United Nations said Wednesday it had verified the deaths of 103 civilians in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire with Israel, demanding a halt to the ongoing suffering.
The UN Human Rights Office called for renewed efforts for a durable truce, more than 10 months on from the agreed ceasefire.
“We are still seeing devastating impacts of jet and drone strikes in residential areas, as well as near UN peacekeepers in the south,” UN rights chief Volker Turk said in a statement.
Israel has kept up near daily strikes on Lebanon, usually saying it is targeting Hezbollah operatives or sites, despite the truce that sought to end more than a year of hostilities including two months of open war with the Iran-backed group.
“Families are simply unable to make a start on rebuilding their homes and their lives, and instead are faced by the real and present danger of more strikes,” Turk said.
“Hundreds of damaged schools, health facilities, places of worship, among other civilian sites, are still no-go zones, or at best, only partly useable.”
The Human Rights Office said that until the end of September, it had verified 103 civilians killed in Lebanon since the ceasefire.
There have been no reports of killings from projectiles fired from Lebanon toward Israel since the truce, it said.
Turk’s office said five people, including three children, were killed when an Israeli drone struck a vehicle and a motorcycle in the border area of Bint Jbeil on September 21.
Turk demanded an independent and impartial investigation into the incident, along with others he said raised concerns about compliance with international humanitarian law.
Lebanon’s health ministry said one person was killed and five others wounded in an Israeli strike on Wednesday on the country’s south, without specifying whether the casualties were civilians.
More than 80,000 people remain displaced in Lebanon as a result of ongoing violence, with around 30,000 people from northern Israel reportedly still displaced.
“At all times during the conduct of hostilities, civilians and civilian infrastructure must be protected and international humanitarian law fully respected, irrespective of claims of breaches of a ceasefire,” said Turk.
“Good faith implementation of the ceasefire is the only path toward a durable peace, and its terms need to be respected.”
Morocco’s youth protest for fourth night, decry World Cup spending over schools and hospitals
Promises to fix Morocco’s strained social services haven’t quelled anger from Internet-savvy youth who launched some of the country’s biggest street protests in years.
In Oujda, a police vehicle that rammed into demonstrators in Morocco left one person injured
Updated 01 October 2025
AP
RABAT: Anti-government demonstrations gripped Morocco for a fourth straight night as youth filled the streets of cities throughout the country and destruction and violence broke out in several places, according to human rights groups and local media.
With billions in investment flowing toward preparations for the 2030 World Cup, promises to fix Morocco’s strained social services haven’t quelled anger from Internet-savvy youth who launched some of the country’s biggest street protests in years.
Young Moroccans took to the streets on Tuesday clashing with security forces and decrying the dire state of many schools and hospitals. After dozens of peaceful protesters were arrested over the weekend, violence broke out Tuesday in several cities, especially in parts of Morocco where jobs are scarce and social services lacking, eyewitness video and local outlets reported.
“The right to health, education and a dignified life is not an empty slogan but a serious demand,” the organizers of the Gen Z 212 protest movement wrote in a statement published on Discord.
Still, the protests have escalated and become more destructive, particularly in cities far from where development efforts have been concentrated in Morocco. Local outlets and footage filmed by witnesses show protesters hurling rocks and setting vehicles ablaze in cities and towns in the country’s east and south, including in Inzegane and the province of Chtouka Ait Baha.
In Oujda, eastern Morocco’s largest city, a police vehicle that rammed into demonstrators in Morocco left one person injured, local human rights groups and the state news agency MAP said.
The city’s chapter of the Moroccan Association for Human Rights (AMDH) said that 37 protesters arrested on Monday, among them six minors, would appear in court in Oujda on Wednesday.
They’re among the hundreds that AMDH said have been apprehended, including many whose arrests were shown on video by local media and some who were detained by plainclothes officers during interviews.
“With protests scheduled to continue, we urge authorities to engage with the legitimate demands of the youth for their social, economic, and cultural rights and to address their concerns about corruption,” Amnesty International’s regional office said on Tuesday.
The “Gen Z” protests mirror similar unrest sweeping countries like Nepal and Madagascar. In some of Morocco’s largest anti-government protests in years, the leaderless movement has harnessed anger about conditions in hospitals and schools to express outrage over the government’s spending priorities.
Pointing to new stadiums under construction or renovation across the country, protesters have chanted, ‘Stadiums are here, but where are the hospitals?’ Additionally, the recent deaths of eight women in public hospital in Agadir have become a rallying cry against the decline of Morocco’s health system.
The movement, which originated on platforms like TikTok and Discord popular among gamers and teenagers, has won additional backing since authorities began arresting people over the weekend, including from Morocco’s star goalkeeper Yassine Bounou and its most famous rapper El Grande Toto.
Officials have denied prioritizing World Cup spending over public infrastructure, saying problems facing the health sector were inherited from previous governments. In Morocco’s parliament, the governing majority said it would meet on Thursday to discuss health care and hospital reforms as part of a meeting headed by Prime Minister Aziz Akhannouch.
Morocco’s Interior Ministry did not immediately respond to questions about the protests or arrests.
US offers security guarantees to Qatar after Israel strikes: White House
Executive Order signed by President Trump saus US will regard 'any armed attack' on Qatari territory as threat Washington
Qatar welcomes US action, which comes after Netanyahu apologized to Doha for an airstrike last month
Updated 57 min 50 sec ago
AFP
WASHINGTON: The United States will regard “any armed attack” on Qatari territory as a threat to Washington and will provide the Gulf Arab state with security guarantees, the White House said, after an Israeli strike on the country last month.
“In light of the continuing threats to the State of Qatar posed by foreign aggression, it is the policy of the United States to guarantee the security and territorial integrity of the State of Qatar against external attack,” said an Executive Order signed by US President Donald Trump on Monday.
In the event of an attack on Qatar, the United States will “take all lawful and appropriate measures — including diplomatic, economic, and, if necessary, military — to defend the interests of the United States and of the State of Qatar and to restore peace and stability,” the order said.
Qatar’s foreign ministry said in a statement the country “welcomes the signing of the US president’s executive order recognizing attacks on its territory as a threat to American peace and security.”
The agreement comes after an Israeli strike on the key US regional ally on September 9, targeting officials from the Palestinian armed group Hamas who were discussing a US peace proposal for the war in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Qatar’s prime minister from the White House on Monday, apologizing for strikes and promising not to do so again, the United States said.
Netanyahu was in Washington to meet Trump, and had until then been defiant since ordering the September 9 strikes.
Qatar is a key US ally in the Gulf and hosts the largest US military base in the region at Al-Udeid, which also includes a regional headquarters for elements of US Central Command.
