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Adnan Masoudy & Hassan Alzain

May 30, 2025 22:25

Success will depend not only on the number of trees but on how effectively they are planted, maintained, and measured. (SGI photo)

As ������Ƶ commits to planting 10 billion trees and rehabilitating 40 million hectares in the coming decades under the Saudi Green Initiative, success will depend not only on the number of trees but on how effectively they are planted, maintained, and measured.

Precision, ecosystem sustainability, and transparent monitoring are essential. Emerging climate technologies using artificial intelligence —such as satellite-based remote sensing and advanced carbon quantification platforms — offer transformative tools to enhance the effectiveness of nature-based solutions.

This will enable the Kingdom to deliver measurable results while advancing global climate adaptation aspirations.

Nature-based solutions, including afforestation, mangrove rehabilitation, and wetland restoration, can provide up to 37 percent of the cost-effective carbon mitigation required by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

However, implementing nature-based solutions in ������Ƶ’s hyper-arid environment presents unique challenges. Climate stressors such as extreme heat, saline soils, and water scarcity require data-driven approaches to ensure ecological suitability, long-term survival, and resilience.

Technologies such as light detection and ranging, or LIDAR, which use laser pulses to map terrain and vegetation in three dimensions, allow detailed analysis of canopy structure, soil degradation, and vegetation health.

When integrated with AI and hyperspectral imaging, these tools can identify optimal restoration sites, track survival rates, and verify carbon uptake in near real time.

Institutions such as the National Center for Vegetation Cover could use this technology to improve resource targeting and support digital monitoring, reporting, and verification systems for national and international carbon markets.

Globally, countries are successfully leveraging such technologies. Kenya’s Regreening Africa initiative employs drone imagery and AI to evaluate large-scale restoration efforts, using geospatial tools to monitor tens of thousands of hectares and significantly improve outcomes.

In Peru, satellite-based forest monitoring platforms enhance transparency and help prevent illegal deforestation in Amazonian restoration zones. These examples offer replicable models that ������Ƶ can adapt and scale.

The economic rationale is equally compelling. The social cost of carbon, reflecting the economic damage from each additional tonne of CO2 emitted, can reach as high as $185 per tonne depending on the applied discount rate and modeling assumptions, according to estimates reported in 2022 by Kevin Rennert and fellow researchers in the journal Nature.

In contrast, the cost of restoring mangroves to sequester carbon has been estimated to range from $4.50 to $18 per tonne of CO2, depending on site-specific factors and carbon recovery assumptions, while delivering additional benefits such as coastal protection, biodiversity enhancement, and improved fisheries.

In a country where approximately one third of the population resides along the coast, restoring mangroves and wetlands becomes a dual-purpose strategy that combines mitigation with adaptation.

Technology also reduces the risk of maladaptation, where restoration efforts fail due to poor species selection or lack of climate-fit design.

Applying frameworks like dynamic adaptive policy pathways can help Saudi policymakers sequence restoration phases under uncertainty and adjust plans based on feedback and risk thresholds.

Even the most advanced tools will fall short without the trust, knowledge, and participation of those most affected by environmental change.

Adnan Masoudy & Hassan Alzain

Co-developing projects with local communities and scientists ensures financial stability and long-term social resilience.

Adaptation finance remains critically underfunded. The Adaptation Gap Report 2024 estimates that the financing needed is between $231 and $416 billion per year, up from previous estimates of $194 to $366 billion, reflecting rising global costs and urgent adaptation needs.

To fully realize this potential, ������Ƶ should prioritize advancing three strategic steps.

First, launch a national open-access geospatial dashboard that integrates LIDAR, AI, and remote sensing data to track nature-based solutions progress nationwide.

Second, engage more deeply with global platforms such as the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, the Global Mangrove Alliance, and the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility to exchange technical knowledge and obtain access to climate finance.

Third, establish a climate and nature tech innovation hub in collaboration with local universities to pilot and localize nature-based solutions, monitoring solutions tailored for drylands, while accelerating the development and deployment of new climate and nature-based startups in the region.

As Princess Reema bint Bandar Al-Saud, the Kingdom’s ambassador to the US, eloquently stated on SGI Day 2025: “The future is not something that comes at us; it’s something we create ... Climate action is not a dream — it is a reality we are building together.”

Her words capture the spirit of SGI as not just a national strategy, but a movement defined by momentum, measurable action, and collective resolve.

That momentum is already visible. As of 2024, ������Ƶ has planted over 115 million trees and restored 118,000 hectares of degraded land — a significant leap from where the journey began just a few years ago.

These achievements demonstrate that bold climate pledges are being converted into tangible, large-scale outcomes on the ground.

But technology and investment alone are not enough.

As explained by Robert Klee, senior lecturer and managing director of clean energy programs at the Yale Center for Business and the Environment: “Nature-based solutions can be empowered by technology, but must be governed by people — especially those most vulnerable to climate risks.

“It is in aligning science, justice, and local knowledge that real climate progress takes root.”

This insight points to a deeper truth: meaningful climate progress depends as much on governance and inclusion as it does on innovation.

Even the most advanced tools will fall short without the trust, knowledge, and participation of those most affected by environmental change.

Within the SGI framework, embedding local leadership and equity into restoration design can elevate both the impact and legitimacy of nature-based solutions across ������Ƶ’s diverse landscapes.

By fusing nature and innovation, and engaging local communities in the development and deployment of nature-based solutions, ������Ƶ can transform its drylands into living laboratories of climate resilience.

The SGI offers more than a greening strategy. With smart climate technologies, it can become a global model for how climate ambition, ecological science, cutting-edge tools, and social support converge to drive meaningful environmental transformation in the decades to come.

• Adnan Masoudy is manager of corporate sustainability, environment, and biodiversity at Ma’aden and Hassan Alzain is author of the award-winning book “Green Gambit.”