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In five years’ time, the International Space Station will be retired. This symbol of peaceful collaboration is set to exit space at a time of increased and convergent geopolitical and technological competition on Earth. In uninterrupted operation for more than two decades, the space station has hosted thousands of scientific experiments in microgravity and welcomed 250 astronauts from 20 nations. A joint project between the US’ NASA, Russia’s Roscosmos, the European Space Agency, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the Canadian Space Agency, it included participation from 15 countries.

Needless to say, the world and space are today heading in a different direction. What will space look like in five years? What will Earth’s geopolitics look like in five years? Will there be the same opportunities for collaboration in research and science in space? The answers are starting to unfold and, noting the importance of space in terms of global communications and intelligence, we are noticing the erasure of commercialization within the space sector. In short, it is back to single-use and not even dual-use.

Today, the only country ready for the post-International Space Station era is China. The Tiangong space station, which has been fully functioning since late 2022, is a significant step in China’s ascent to prominence as a global space power. Tiangong is, for now, composed of three modules: the Tianhe core module and two laboratories, Wentian and Mengtian. Just like the International Space Station, it orbits Earth at a distance of about 400 km.

It can support more than 100 scientific studies, ranging from biology to materials science, while three astronauts are hosted at a time on six-month rotations. The plan is to expand the station to six modules. This would mean doubling its current size. Despite repeated delays, China also plans to launch the Xuntian space telescope, which will orbit alongside Tiangong and periodically dock for maintenance. This means China is establishing a self-sufficient infrastructure.

Sun Zhibin, of the National Space Science Centre in Beijing, last week said China is creating a rapid-response space defense system to detect and drive away suspect spacecraft. It aims to use a tiny robotic thruster to grab hold of unknown objects and propel them away from the Tiangong space station or other vital space equipment. There is no doubt this could also play an offensive role.

So, where does that leave the rest of the world? What is the US’ post-space station plan? What is Europe’s?

There are several private American companies working on what are defined as commercial space stations. Axiom Space is creating a modular station that will initially be attached to the International Space Station, before aiming for independent operation by 2031 with a focus on research, manufacturing and tourism.

The Tiangong space station is a significant step in China’s ascent to prominence as a global space power

Khaled Abou Zahr

NanoRacks, under the Starlab project alongside Voyager Space and Lockheed Martin, plans a free-flying station dedicated to science and industrial applications, targeted for launch in 2028. And Blue Origin, alongside Sierra Space and Boeing, is developing the Orbital Reef station, envisioned as a mixed-use space “business park” supporting research, manufacturing and tourism. With a modular design, it is expected to be operational by 2030. More recently, Vast has announced its plans for Haven-1, the first commercial space station, which is set for launch in 2026. It will support short missions with high-speed internet connectivity via Starlink.

The big issues are whether these companies will be able to deliver on time and whether the projects will be financially successful. Some have already faced issues.

These space station projects are supported by NASA’s goal of transitioning low Earth orbit activities to the private sector. Yet, we need to be realistic. While it is clear that China’s approach is more state-led and centralized, all these private companies are dependent on government contracts. More than 75 percent of the revenues for space hardware, or what are known as upstream companies, are generated by space agencies, ministries of defense and intelligence services. The competition certainly allows for better pressure on deliverables and prices, but the source is ultimately the same: government.

Axiom Space has raised more than $505 million in private funding, including a $350 million Series-C round in 2023. Additionally, the company has secured more than $2.2 billion in customer contracts, mainly from government entities. In 2021, NanoRacks was awarded a NASA contract worth $160 million through the Commercial Low-Earth Orbit Destinations program to support the development of Starlab. Blue Origin was also awarded $130 million by NASA. China, meanwhile, benefits from its purchasing power parity, which multiplies its achievements as companies burn cash.

With the way geopolitics is evolving on Earth, one can expect that these space stations will serve more than just science. Satellites have a critical role in modern defense for secure communications, surveillance and navigation, as well as acting as early warning systems. Space-based assets are also vital in conflict scenarios. Their importance has been clear in the war in Ukraine, where satellite imagery and communications have proved decisive on the battlefield, especially with drones.

This confirms that space has become a battle domain as crucial as land, sea, air and cyber. Hence, there is a need for both defending against and developing capabilities to disrupt or disable adversaries’ satellites through cyberattacks, jamming or even antisatellite weapons. This is essential for deterrence.

Recently analyzed swabs taken in May 2023 found an unknown bacterium, Niallia tiangongensis, aboard China’s Tiangong station. Similar microbial challenges have been faced on the International Space Station, where strains like Acinetobacter pittii have shown signs of antibiotic resistance. This highlights the shared responsibility to manage risks as both national and commercial space habitats expand. Rather than competing in isolation, nations and private companies may find that collaboration on biosecurity and research offers some common ground.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is the founder of SpaceQuest Ventures, a space-focused investment platform. He is CEO of EurabiaMedia and editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.