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NEW YORK: The world’s richest man could lose billions in his fight with world’s most powerful politician.
The feud between Elon Musk and Donald Trump could mean Tesla’s plans for self-driving cars hit a roadblock, SpaceX flies fewer missions for NASA, Starlink gets fewer overseas satellite contracts and the social media platform X loses advertisers.
Maybe, that is. It all depends on Trump’s appetite for revenge and how the dispute unfolds.
Joked Telemetry Insight auto analyst Sam Abuelsamid, “Since Trump has no history of retaliating against perceived adversaries, he’ll probably just let this pass.”
Turning serious, he sees trouble ahead for Musk.
“For someone that rants so much about government pork, all of Elon’s businesses are extremely dependent on government largesse, which makes him vulnerable.”
Trump and the federal government also stand to lose from a long-running dispute, but not as much as Musk.
Tesla robotaxis
The dispute comes just a week before a planned test of Tesla’s driverless taxis in Austin, Texas, a major event for the company because sales of its EVs are lagging in many markets, and Musk needs a win.
Trump can mess things up for Tesla by encouraging federal safety regulators to step in at any sign of trouble for the robotaxis.
Even before the war of words broke out on Thursday, the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration requested data on how Musk’s driverless, autonomous taxis will perform in low-visibility conditions. That request follows an investigation last year into 2.4 million Teslas equipped with full self-driving software after several accidents, including one that killed a pedestrian.
A spokesman for NHTSA said the probe was ongoing and that the agency “will take any necessary actions to protect road safety.”
The Department of Justice has also probed the safety of Tesla cars, but the status of that investigation is unclear. The DOJ did not respond immediately to requests for comment.
The promise of a self-driving future led by Tesla inspired shareholders to boost the stock by 50 percent in the weeks after Musk confirmed the Austin rollout. But on Thursday, the stock plunged more than 14 percent amid the Trump-Musk standoff. On Friday, it recovered a bit, bouncing back nearly 4 percent.
“Tesla’s recent rise was almost entirely driven by robotaxi enthusiasm,” said Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein. “Elon’s feud with Trump could be a negative.”
Carbon credits business
One often-overlooked but important part of Tesla’s business that could take a hit is its sales of carbon credits.
As Musk and Trump were slugging it out Thursday, Republican senators inserted new language into Trump’s budget bill that would eliminate fines for gas-powered cars that fall short of fuel economy standards. Tesla has a thriving side business selling “regulatory credits” to other automakers to make up for their shortfalls.
Musk has downplayed the importance of the credits business, but the changes would hurt Tesla as it reels from boycotts of its cars tied to Musk’s time working for Trump.
Credit sales jumped by a third to $595 million in the first three months of the year even as total revenue slumped.
Reviving sales
Musk’s foray into right-wing politics cost Tesla sales among the environmentally minded consumers who embraced electric cars and led to boycotts of Tesla showrooms.
If Musk has indeed ended his close association with Trump, those buyers could come back, but that’s far from certain.
Meanwhile, one analyst speculated earlier this year that Trump voters in so-called red counties could buy Teslas “in a meaningful way.” But he’s now less hopeful.
“There are more questions than answers following Thursday developments,” TD Cowen’s Itay Michaeli wrote in his latest report, “and it’s still too early to determine any lasting impacts.”
Michaeli’s stock target for Tesla earlier this year was $388. He has since lowered it to $330. Tesla was trading Friday at $300.
Tesla did not respond to requests for comment.
Moonshot mess
Trump said Thursday that he could cut government contracts to Musk’s rocket company, SpaceX, a massive threat to a company that has received billions of federal dollars.
The privately held company that is reportedly worth $350 billion provides launches, sends astronauts into space for NASA and has a contract to send a team from the space agency to the moon next year.
But if Musk has a lot to lose, so does the US
SpaceX is the only US company capable of transporting crews to and from the space station, using its four-person Dragon capsules. The other alternative is politically dicey: depending wholly on Russia’s Soyuz capsules.
Musk knew all this when he shot back at Trump that SpaceX would begin decommissioning its Dragon spacecraft. But it is unclear how serious his threat was. Several hours later — in a reply to another X user — he said he wouldn’t do it.
Starlink impact?
A subsidiary of SpaceX, the satellite Internet company Starlink, appears to also have benefited from Musk’s once-close relationship with the president.
Musk announced that ������Ƶ had approved Starlink for some services during a trip with Trump in the Middle East last month. The company has also won a string of other recent deals in Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and elsewhere as Trump has threatened tariffs.
It’s not clear how much politics played a role, and how much is pure business.
On Friday, The Associated Press confirmed that India had approved a key license to Starlink. At least 40 percent of India’s more than 1.4 billion people have no access to the Internet.
Ad revival interrupted?
Big advertisers that fled X after Musk welcomed all manner of conspiracy theories to the social media platform have started to trickle back in recent months, possibly out of fear of a conservative backlash.
Musk has called their decision to leave an “illegal boycott” and sued them, and the Trump administration recently weighed in with a Federal Trade Commission probe into possible coordination among them.
Now advertisers may have to worry about a different danger.
If Trump sours on X, “there’s a risk that it could again become politically radioactive for major brands,” said Sarah Kreps, a political scientist at Cornell University. She added, though, that an “exodus isn’t obvious, and it would depend heavily on how the conflict escalates, how long it lasts and how it ends.”

WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump on Friday signed executive orders to bolster US defenses against threatening drones and to boost electric air taxis and supersonic commercial aircraft, the White House said.
In the three executive orders, Trump sought to enable routine use of drones beyond the visual sight of operators — a key step to enabling commercial drone deliveries — and take steps to reduce the US reliance on Chinese drone companies and begin testing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.
Trump is establishing a federal task force to ensure US control over American skies, expand restrictions over sensitive sites, expand federal use of technology to detect drones in real time and provide assistance to state and local law enforcement.
Trump also aims to address the “growing threat of criminal terrorists and foreign misuse of drones in US airspace,” said Michael Kratsios, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. “We are securing our borders from national security threats, including in the air, with large-scale public events such as the Olympics and the World Cup on the horizon.”
Sebastian Gorka, senior director of counterterrorism at the National Security Council, cited the use of drones in Russia’s war in Ukraine and threats to major US sporting events.
“We will be increasing counter-drone capabilities and capacities,” Gorka said. “We will increase the enforcement of current laws to deter two types of individuals: evildoers and idiots.”
The issue of suspicious drones also gained significant attention last year after a flurry of drone sightings in New Jersey. The FAA receives more than 100 drone-sighting reports near airports each month.
Drone sightings have at times disrupted flights and sporting events.
Trump also directed the Federal Aviation Administration to lift a ban imposed in 1973 on supersonic air transport over land.
“The reality is that Americans should be able to fly from New York to L.A. in under four hours,” Kratsios said. “Advances in aerospace engineering, material science and noise reduction now make overland supersonic flight not just possible, but safe, sustainable and commercially viable.”
The Trump orders do not ban any Chinese drone company, officials said. Last year, former President Joe Biden signed legislation that could ban China-based DJI and Autel Robotics from selling new drone models in the US DJI, the world’s largest drone manufacturer, sells more than half of all US commercial drones.