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GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 

GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 
The analysis by ICAEW affirms the progress of the economic diversification efforts undertaken by GCC member states. Shutterstock
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Updated 16 June 2025

GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 

GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 
  • Ƶ’s economy is expected to witness growth of 5.2% in 2025, according to ICAEW
  • UAE economy is projected to expand by 5.1%

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council economies are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 4 percent, as rising oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity offset global trade headwinds. 

In its latest economic update, prepared with Oxford Economics, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales said Ƶ and the UAE will lead regional growth despite weaker crude prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty. 

The revision comes amid stronger-than-expected gains in OPEC+ production and continued investment in infrastructure, tourism, and technology. In May, the International Monetary Fund said that the GCC region’s economy will grow by 3 percent in 2025, driven by gains in the non-oil sector. 

The analysis by ICAEW affirms the progress of the economic diversification efforts undertaken by GCC member states, including Ƶ and the UAE, aimed at strengthening their non-oil sectors and reducing reliance on crude revenues. 

Hanadi Khalife, head of Middle East at ICAEW, said: “The GCC economies are showing remarkable adaptability amid shifting global trade dynamics.” 

She added: “Investments in tourism, technology, and infrastructure continue to pay dividends, strengthening resilience and laying the groundwork for long-term growth.” 




Non-oil sectors in the GCC are forecast to grow by 4.1 percent in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand. Shutterstock

The report noted Brent crude is expected to average $67.3 a barrel in 2025, increasing fiscal pressure across the bloc. Qatar and the UAE are likely to maintain budget surpluses, underscoring diverging fiscal positions within the region. 

Scott Livermore, economic adviser at ICAEW and chief economist and managing director at Oxford Economics Middle East, said the upgraded GCC economic growth forecast was due to faster OPEC+ output increases and sustained non-oil momentum in key economies like Ƶ and the UAE. 

“While uncertainty and trade shifts may place pressures on fiscal policy, the region’s two key economies are expected to continue to progress toward economic diversification and attract global capital at an accelerated pace,” added Livermore. 

The impact of the US 10 percent tariff on imports from GCC countries is expected to be limited, given the region’s low US export exposure and the exemption of energy products. 

Overall, non-oil sectors in the GCC are forecast to grow by 4.1 percent in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand, investment momentum, and diversification initiatives. 

ICAEW added that the region is also favorably positioned to absorb any trade rebalances resulting from tariff headwinds and geopolitical tensions. 

Ƶ outlook 

Ƶ’s economy is expected to witness growth of 5.2 percent in 2025, according to ICAEW. 

The non-oil sector in the Kingdom is projected to grow by 5.3 percent in 2025, while the oil economy is also forecast to expand by 5.2 percent this year. 

The report added that Ƶ’s oil production is averaging 9.7 million barrels per day, while non-oil sectors, including construction and trade, are contributing to the ongoing growth momentum. 




S&P Global said that Ƶ’s strong rating is driven by the economic and social transformation taking place in the Kingdom. Shutterstock

ICAEW further stated that Ƶ recorded an economic growth of 3.4 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by a 4.9 percent expansion in non-oil activities. 

“The rebasing of national accounts boosted the non-oil sector’s share of GDP, reinforcing the Kingdom’s diversification drive. However, weaker oil prices are expected to widen the fiscal deficit to 3.4 percent of the gross domestic product,” said ICAEW. 

In May, a separate report released by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that Ƶ’s economy expanded by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity. 

Commenting on the GDP figures at that time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT’s board, said the contribution of non-oil activities to the Kingdom’s GDP reached 53.2 percent — an increase of 5.7 percent from previous estimates. 

The minister added that Ƶ’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by structural reforms and high-quality, state-led projects across various sectors. 

The ICAEW report noted that despite potential risks, investor sentiment remains strong, with credit rating agency S&P Global upgrading the Kingdom’s credit rating to A+. 

In March, S&P Global said that Ƶ’s strong rating is driven by the economic and social transformation taking place in the Kingdom. 

In February, Fitch Ratings also affirmed Ƶ’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom’s strong fiscal and external balance sheets. 

UAE growth driven by investments 

The UAE economy is projected to expand by 5.1 percent in 2025, driven by a recovery in oil output and a 4.7 percent rise in non-oil GDP, according to ICAEW. 

“Tourism remains a key growth driver, with international visitor spending expected to contribute nearly 13 percent of GDP in 2025. In the first quarter, Dubai welcomed 5.3 million international visitors, up 3 percent year on year, consolidating its position as a leading tourism hub,” said the report. 




UAE is expected to witness economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2025, before accelerating further to 5.5 percent in 2026. Shutterstock

Strategic investments are also fueling momentum in the UAE, including a $1.4 trillion investment pipeline and new AI-focused collaborations following President Trump’s visit to the Emirates in May. 

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, president of the UAE, on the sidelines of Trump’s visit, said that this planned $1.4 trillion investment in the US over the next decade underscores a strong partnership with Washington. 

The UAE president added that investments would span critical sectors such as technology, artificial intelligence, and energy. 

“While rising tariffs are likely to suppress global inflation, a weaker US dollar may push up import prices in the UAE — particularly from non-dollar trade partners — offsetting some of the disinflationary effects,” concluded ICAEW. 

Earlier this month, the Central Bank of the UAE revealed that the Emirates’ GDP reached 1.77 billion dirhams ($481.4 million) in 2024, recording 4 percent growth, with non-oil sectors contributing 75.5 percent of the total. 

CBUAE added that the Emirates is expected to witness economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2025, before accelerating further to 5.5 percent in 2026. 


Closing Bell: Saudi stock market ends the week in green 

Closing Bell: Saudi stock market ends the week in green 
Updated 31 July 2025

Closing Bell: Saudi stock market ends the week in green 

Closing Bell: Saudi stock market ends the week in green 

RIYADH: Ƶ’s Tadawul All Share Index ended the week on Thursday with a slight gain, rising 5.89 points, or 0.05 percent, to close at 10,920.27. 

The total trading turnover reached SR4.38 billion ($1.16 billion), with 417.32 million shares traded. A total of 111 stocks advanced while 136 declined. 

The MSCI Tadawul 30 Index also edged higher, adding 2.66 points, or 0.19 percent, to finish at 1,409.74. 

On the Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu, the index advanced by 115.90 points, or 0.43 percent, closing at 26,924.98. Of the listed companies, 47 gained while 31 declined. 

Sport Clubs Co. led the gainers, climbing 9.97 percent to SR11.25. They were followed by Al Babtain Power and Telecommunication Co., which rose 5.03 percent to SR56.40, and Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Co., which added 4.27 percent to close at SR168.60.

Miahona Co. and Saudi Azm for Communication and Information Technology Co. were also among the top performers, gaining 4.23 percent and 3.85 percent, to close at SR27.10 and SR29.66, respectively. 

Saudi Steel Pipe Co. recorded the steepest decline of the session, falling 4.02 percent to SR51.30. It was followed by Yamama Cement Co., which dropped 3.8 percent to SR32.88, and Halwani Bros. Co., down 3.19 percent to SR42.42. 

Arab Insurance Cooperative Co. and Astra Industrial Group also posted losses of 2.92 percent and 2.57 percent, respectively. 

On the announcement front, Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. reported a 6.6 percent year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with sales amounting to SR122.5 million compared to SR131.2 million in the same period last year. 

Net profit also dropped, falling 30.8 percent to SR20.8 million from SR30.1 million over the same period. 

The company attributed the decline in revenue to a decrease in the average selling price per tonne. 

The fall in net profit was linked to the lower sales value and a reduction in other revenues, despite a decline in general and administrative expenses, financing costs, and zakat. 

Shares of Umm Al-Qura Cement Co. closed at SR15.61 on Thursday, down 0.32 percent. 

Almarai Co. confirmed the completion of its acquisition of Pure Beverages Industry Co., following its initial agreement signed on June 15. 

The company stated that the transaction reinforces its strategy to expand its beverage portfolio and strengthen its market presence, while supporting future growth plans. 

Almarai added that the acquisition was finalized with no change to the previously disclosed cost of SR1.04 billion. 

Shares of Almarai Co. closed at SR47.90 on Thursday, down 0.04 percent. 


Oman joins World Free Zones Organization to shore more foreign investment

Oman joins World Free Zones Organization to shore more foreign investment
Updated 31 July 2025

Oman joins World Free Zones Organization to shore more foreign investment

Oman joins World Free Zones Organization to shore more foreign investment
  • Membership will support efforts to improve operational efficiency and develop more targeted marketing strategies
  • It will also help improve competitiveness of territories OPAZ oversees

RIYADH: Oman’s free zones are set to attract greater foreign investment after signing up to a global network designed to boost the economic areas.

The Public Authority for Special Economic Zones and Free Zones said its membership in the World Free Zones Organization will help improve the competitiveness of the territories it oversees, including industrial cities and free zones, while opening new channels to promote them as flexible and investor-ready destinations with advanced infrastructure.

Free zones are designated areas that offer businesses incentives such as tax exemptions, full foreign ownership, and simplified customs procedures. These districts are designed to attract investment, boost exports, and support economic diversification by providing a competitive and flexible environment for companies to operate.

They are increasingly central to economies in the Middle East, with hubs like Dubai’s Jebel Ali, Riyadh’s Special Integrated Logistics Zone, and Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone driving trade and investment.

“Through this international partnership, the authority seeks to expand its network of economic relations and benefit from the latest global trends in the management and development of special economic zones, free zones, and industrial cities,” Oman News Agency reported.

This comes as Oman’s special economic zones attracted $43.16 billion in investments during the first half of 2023, driven by major projects in Sohar, Salalah, and Duqm, supported by a favorable investment climate fostered by OPAZ and the government’s diversification strategy.

By joining the organization, which brings together more than 1,600 zones and economic institutions from over 140 countries, the authority will be able to exchange expertise and strengthen its operational capabilities to keep Oman’s zones competitive globally.

The membership will also support efforts to improve operational efficiency and develop more targeted promotion and marketing strategies to attract high-value projects, ONA said.

The body currently oversees 23 operating special economic zones, free zones, and industrial cities across Oman. These districts attracted cumulative investments totaling approximately 21 billion Omani rials ($54.5 billion) by the end of 2024, reflecting their growing appeal to investors.

The World Free Zones Organization is a network that includes free zones, multinational corporations, and industry stakeholders committed to fostering global trade and investment.

Across the wider Middle East and North Africa region, free zones have become critical enablers of economic diversification and foreign direct investment.

The UAE is home to some of the most prominent examples, including Jebel Ali Free Zone, which hosts more than 9,000 companies, and Abu Dhabi’s Khalifa Industrial Zone, which supports large-scale manufacturing and logistics operations.

In Ƶ, the King Abdullah Economic City and the Special Integrated Logistics Zone in Riyadh have emerged as strategic hubs supporting Vision 2030 objectives, while Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone has attracted global interest as a key gateway for trade and industry.


UAE-led AI pact aims to narrow digital divide in Global South

UAE-led AI pact aims to narrow digital divide in Global South
Updated 31 July 2025

UAE-led AI pact aims to narrow digital divide in Global South

UAE-led AI pact aims to narrow digital divide in Global South

RIYADH: Artificial intelligence adoption in the Global South is set to accelerate under a new UAE-led partnership with Malaysia and Rwanda aimed at expanding ethical AI use and knowledge sharing. 

The agreement, signed under the World Economic Forum’s Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution global network, builds on an initiative launched by the UAE and Rwanda at the 2024 WEF Annual Meeting in Davos, according to a press release. 

The partnership comes amid rising global concern that emerging technologies could exacerbate inequality. The UN estimates the AI market will reach $4.8 trillion by 2033, warning that without inclusive frameworks, the Global South risks being left behind. 

Gobind Singh Deo, minister of digital in Malaysia, said his country “is proud to join forces with the UAE and Rwanda in this visionary initiative to bridge global AI expertise and accelerate digital transformation for a more inclusive and sustainable future.” 

He added: “This partnership involving Malaysia Center4IR, C4IR UAE, and C4IR Rwanda reflects our collective goal for a future that is driven by responsible AI innovation.” 

Singh Deo expressed hope that the C4IR Network AI Fellowship Program, developed through the collaboration, would act as a crucial bridge connecting AI leaders and experts across continents. 

“By sharing knowledge, exchanging talent, and co-creating solutions, we aim to address the critical challenges and harness the immense potential of AI for the benefit of not only our nations, but the wider global community,” he added. 

The memorandum of understanding was witnessed by UAE Minister of State for Artificial Intelligence Omar Al-Olama and Malaysia’s Singh Deo. It aims to deepen South-South collaboration on technology policy, research, and skills development. 

With Malaysia now joining, the expanded C4IR AI Fellowship Program will support talent exchange, joint innovation, and responsible governance frameworks led by Global South countries. 

“This expanded partnership will help the Global South to unlock greater value from AI and Fourth Industrial Revolution applications,” said Khalfan Belhoul, CEO of Dubai Future Foundation. 

“Guided by our leadership, the UAE is committed to building and strengthening global collaboration to achieve inclusive, sustainable development through technology and knowledge sharing,” he added. 

Crystal Rugege, managing director of the Rwanda Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution, noted that the strategic partnership complemented Rwanda’s flagship initiatives, including the AI Innovation Lab and the Global AI Summit on Africa, thereby enhancing efforts to promote cutting-edge research, knowledge transfer, and capacity building. 

“By strengthening responsible AI governance and accelerating practical AI adoption, we are committed to empowering Rwanda, our partner countries, and the global AI ecosystem to fully leverage AI for sustainable and inclusive development,” she added. 

The Global Center for the Fourth Industrial Revolution Network brings together public and private sector partners to harness emerging technologies while managing their risks. It promotes the responsible use of these technologies through a global network of independent centers.


Middle East air cargo capacity rises 1.5% despite falling demand

Middle East air cargo capacity rises 1.5% despite falling demand
Updated 31 July 2025

Middle East air cargo capacity rises 1.5% despite falling demand

Middle East air cargo capacity rises 1.5% despite falling demand
  • Performance reflects broader slowdown in global air cargo
  • Slowdown attributed to rising protectionism, including new US tariffs

RIYADH: Middle Eastern air cargo capacity grew 1.5 percent year on year in June, even as regional demand contracted by 3.2 percent due to geopolitical tensions and airspace disruptions. 

The rise in available cargo space, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers, came amid route disruptions over parts of Iran, Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon. These factors drove the region’s second consecutive monthly contraction in cargo volumes, according to the International Air Transport Association’s latest air cargo market report.

The performance reflects a broader slowdown in global air cargo, with IATA’s mid-year forecast projecting 0.7 percent volume growth, down from 11.3 percent in 2024. 

The slowdown is attributed to rising protectionism, including new US tariffs and the rollback of de minimis exemptions on low-value imports, which could dampen e-commerce-related air freight. 

“The June air cargo data made it very clear that stability and predictability are essential supports for trade,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general. 

“Emerging clarity on US tariffs allows businesses greater confidence in planning. But we cannot overlook the fact that the ‘deals’ being struck are resulting in significantly higher tariffs on goods imported into the US than we had just a few months ago,” he added. 

While the full economic impact of these trade cost barriers remains to be seen, Walsh said governments must step up efforts to make trade simpler, faster, cheaper, and more secure through digitalization. 

The Asia-North America and Africa-Asia trade lanes each contracted by 4.8 percent, while Middle East-Europe declined by 4.5 percent. In contrast, trade between Europe and Asia expanded by 10.6 percent, maintaining 28 consecutive months of growth. 

“Overall, air cargo demand grew by a modest 0.8 percent year-on-year in June, but there are very differing stories behind that number for the industry’s major players,” Walsh said. 

Trade tensions dragged North American traffic down 8.3 percent and left European growth at 0.8 percent, but Asia-Pacific defied the trend with a 9 percent expansion. 

“Meanwhile, disruptions from military conflict in the Middle East saw the region’s cargo traffic fall by 3.2 percent,” added Walsh. 

Despite the challenging backdrop, some fundamentals remain supportive. Global industrial production rose 3.2 percent year on year in May, and goods trade increased by 3.5 percent. 

Jet fuel prices in June were 12 percent lower than a year ago, easing cost pressures for carriers. 

While the global Purchasing Managers’ Index recovered to 51.2, signaling expansion, new export orders remained in contraction at 49.3. 

Adding to the complexity of the regional dynamic, Middle East airlines are simultaneously expected to post the world’s highest net profit margin in 2025 at 8.7 percent, according to IATA’s June industry forecast presented at its 81st annual general meeting in New Delhi. 

The region is projected to generate a net profit of $6.2 billion, up from $6.1 billion in 2024, and is expected to earn $27.20 per passenger, outpacing all global peers despite demand volatility and regional instability. 


Saudi economy expands 3.9% in Q2, driven by non-oil activity

Saudi economy expands 3.9% in Q2, driven by non-oil activity
Updated 31 July 2025

Saudi economy expands 3.9% in Q2, driven by non-oil activity

Saudi economy expands 3.9% in Q2, driven by non-oil activity
  • Growth in non-oil activities reached 4.7%
  • Non-oil sector contributed largest share to GDP growth, adding 2.7 percentage points

RIYADH: Ƶ’s economy expanded by 3.9 percent year on year in the second quarter of 2025, led by a strong performance in non-oil sectors, official data showed. 

According to flash estimates from the General Authority for Statistics, growth in non-oil activities reached 4.7 percent, outpacing the 3.8 percent expansion in the oil sector and a 0.6 percent rise in government services. 

The non-oil sector contributed the largest share to GDP growth, adding 2.7 percentage points, followed by oil activities at 0.9 percentage points. 

Government activities and net taxes on products each contributed 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, to the overall expansion. 

The data aligns with the macroeconomic outlook from S&P Global Ratings, which projects Ƶ’s real GDP to grow at an average rate of 3.5 percent between 2025 and 2028, surpassing the 0.8 percent growth recorded in 2024. 

“Seasonally adjusted real GDP increased 2.1 percent in Q2/2025, compared to the previous quarter Q1/2025,” GASTAT said in its quarterly update.

“This increase was due to the largest increase in oil activities since Q3/2021, up by 5.6 percent this quarter. Non-oil activities grew by 1.6 percent while government activities recorded a decrease of 0.8 percent,” it added. 

GASTAT said oil activities accounted for 1.3 percentage points of the quarterly growth, with non-oil sectors adding 0.9 percentage point.  

However, government activities and net taxes on products each had a negative impact of 0.1 percentage point. 

Supporting the non-oil growth trend, Ƶ’s non-oil exports, including re-exports, rose to SR31.11 billion ($8.29 billion) in May, marking a 6 percent increase compared to the same month in 2024, according to preliminary data from GASTAT released last week. 

The UAE remained the top destination for the Kingdom’s non-oil goods, with exports amounting to SR9.54 billion. India was the second largest partner at SR2.78 billion, followed by China at SR2.03 billion, Bahrain at SR989.1 million, and Turkiye at SR924.7 million. 

Meanwhile, in its report titled “Saudi Credit Trends: Change in Progress,” published on July 30, S&P Global said that Vision 2030 initiatives are “set to enhance non-oil growth over the medium term,” supported by construction activity, rising consumer demand, and a broader labor force. 

Female labor force participation has more than doubled since 1999, stabilizing at 36 percent since 2022. 

S&P Global said that tourism now contributes approximately 6 percent of GDP and 14 percent of current account receipts in 2024, up from 5 percent in 2022.  

The sector is expected to grow further due to improved visa processes and a broader leisure economy.  

Despite projected fiscal deficits averaging 4.4 percent of GDP through 2028, public investments tied to Vision 2030, including major events like Expo 2030 and the 2034 FIFA World Cup, are expected to sustain economic momentum, S&P said.