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Egypt’s annual inflation rises to 16.8% in May

Egypt’s annual inflation rises to 16.8% in May
Egypt is working to stabilize an economy that has been strained by record inflation, a weakening currency, and rising debt. Shutterstock
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Updated 15 sec ago

Egypt’s annual inflation rises to 16.8% in May

Egypt’s annual inflation rises to 16.8% in May
  • Analysis pointed to a renewed uptick in food prices and challenging base effects
  • Increase influenced by rising prices of pharmaceutical products and fresh fruits

RIYADH: Egypt’s annual urban headline inflation rate rose to 16.8 percent in May, up from 13.9 percent in April, driven primarily by continued non-food price pressures, according to official data.

Released by the Central Bank of Egypt, the analysis pointed to a renewed uptick in food prices and challenging base effects, as the same period last year saw negative inflation.

These inflation trends come as Egypt’s broader economic landscape continues to be shaped by both domestic and global pressures. The government is navigating a delicate recovery amid external shocks, ongoing structural reforms, and efforts to manage public debt. Despite signs of resilience in credit and growth, inflation remains a key concern for both policymakers and households.

This backdrop helps explain Moody’s February decision to affirm Egypt’s Caa1 long-term foreign and local currency ratings with a positive outlook, citing improved prospects for debt servicing.

It also aligns with the country’s reported real gross domestic product growth of 3.9 percent in the first half of the current fiscal year, a signal of economic resilience, according to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly in May.

The newly released CBE report said: “The increase was particularly influenced by rising prices of pharmaceutical products and fresh fruits. Additionally, a moderate rise in inland transportation costs contributed to overall inflation, reflecting the second-round effects of April’s fuel price hike.”

It added: “Similarly, annual core inflation accelerated to 13.1 percent in May 2025 from 10.4 percent in April 2025. This increase reflects higher monthly core inflation, registering 1.6 percent in May 2025 compared to 1.2 percent in April 2025, as well as unfavorable base effects compared to the negative 0.8 percent recorded in May 2024.”

According to the financial institution, core inflation is a version of the headline consumer price index that removes the effects of short-term price shocks, allowing for a clearer view of long-term inflation trends by focusing only on stable, ongoing price changes rather than temporary fluctuations.

The report further indicated that monthly core inflation dynamics in May were influenced by rising prices in both food and non-food categories, such as engine oil, restaurant and cafe services, local transport, and housing rents. Seasonal effects linked to Eid Al-Adha also contributed, particularly with increased costs for Hajj and Umrah, clothing, and meat.

“Monthly core inflation recorded 1.6 percent in May 2025, reflecting the impact of previously mentioned changes in core CPI items. Retail items and services contributed to monthly core inflation by 0.74 and 0.68 percentage points, respectively, while core food contributed 0.22 percentage points,” the report said.

It also revealed that monthly urban headline inflation rose to 1.9 percent in May, up from 1.3 percent in April, primarily fueled by ongoing price pressures, along with increases in volatile food prices and public services such as inland transport and health care.

“Likewise, annual rural headline inflation increased to 16.2 percent in May 2025, compared with 13.1 percent in April 2025, with annual nationwide headline inflation rising to 16.5 percent in May 2025 from 13.5 percent in April 2025,” the CBE report said.

In May, Madbouly said that the country is preparing to transition away from its current economic reform program with the International Monetary Fund, which is scheduled to conclude by late 2026 or early 2027.

He said at the time that the government is developing a long-term national economic strategy that will extend to 2030, focusing on sustaining growth without relying on international institutions, according to an official release. 

The remarks come as Egypt works to stabilize an economy that has been strained by record inflation, a weakening currency, and rising debt. In recent years, the government has implemented reforms aimed at unlocking external financing, attracting Gulf-backed investments, and completing a record sale of state assets.


Ƶ advances net-zero goal with landmark carbon credit deal

Ƶ advances net-zero goal with landmark carbon credit deal
Updated 5 sec ago

Ƶ advances net-zero goal with landmark carbon credit deal

Ƶ advances net-zero goal with landmark carbon credit deal

RIYADH: More than 30 million tonnes of high-integrity carbon credits are set to be delivered by 2030 under an agreement aimed at supporting Ƶ’s net-zero ambitions.

The long-term deal was signed between ENOWA — NEOM’s energy and water subsidiary — and the Voluntary Carbon Market Co., a unit of the Public Investment Fund.

According to the Saudi Press Agency, the credits will be sourced from global climate action projects, primarily in the Global South, with the first batch scheduled for delivery via the market platform in December.

This agreement is a key step in the Kingdom’s efforts to build a scalable voluntary carbon market, and will enable ENOWA to offset its current emissions as it develops renewable infrastructure to power NEOM’s future sectors and projects.

The deal also contributes to Ƶ’s broader goal of achieving net-zero emissions by 2060 through the development of a robust carbon trading infrastructure focused on high-quality credits and meaningful climate impact.

“The long-term agreement with ENOWA aims to facilitate the delivery of more than 30 million tonnes of carbon credits by 2030. It represents a key milestone in the Kingdom’s journey to drive growth in global voluntary carbon markets,” said Riham El-Gizy, CEO of the Voluntary Carbon Market Co.

“As ENOWA develops an advanced renewable and clean energy system to power NEOM’s sectors and projects, this agreement will help it offset its current emissions and lay the foundation for long-term clean energy infrastructure,” she added.

VCM, which was established in October 2022 by PIF and the Saudi Tadawul Group, is 80 percent owned by the sovereign wealth fund. It operates a comprehensive ecosystem that includes an investment fund for climate mitigation projects, a carbon credit trading platform, and advisory services to support emissions reductions.

The global voluntary carbon market is projected to expand significantly, from an estimated $2 billion in 2020 to around $250 billion by 2050.

El-Gizy highlighted that the agreement also supports climate projects in the Global South by providing essential financing guarantees, helping developers plan with more certainty.

“To reach global net-zero emissions, climate-friendly projects that reduce or remove carbon from the atmosphere not only need funding but enhanced credibility,” she said.

Jens Madrian, acting CEO of ENOWA, emphasized the importance of the partnership for NEOM’s sustainability goals.

“ENOWA is working to meet NEOM’s energy needs sustainably. Over the past two years, we have acquired high-integrity carbon credits from the Voluntary Carbon Market auctions, and we are pleased to be the first company in the Kingdom to sign a long-term, large-scale agreement with the market,” he said.

The VCM launched Ƶ’s first voluntary carbon credit trading platform on Nov. 12, 2024. The system offers secure transactions, price discovery tools, and access to carbon credit project data — forming the backbone of the Kingdom’s entry into the global market.

Integrated with international registries, the platform also supports Shariah-compliant infrastructure and includes features such as auctions, quote requests, and over-the-counter trading. A spot trading market is expected to launch in 2025.

ENOWA has previously participated in carbon credit auctions held in Ƶ in 2022 and Kenya in 2023. These efforts align with NEOM’s wider objectives of building a sustainable urban model, fostering economic diversification, and improving quality of life.


Ƶ adds 2 new shipping services, expanding reach to 19 destinations

Ƶ adds 2 new shipping services, expanding reach to 19 destinations
Updated 3 min 7 sec ago

Ƶ adds 2 new shipping services, expanding reach to 19 destinations

Ƶ adds 2 new shipping services, expanding reach to 19 destinations

JEDDAH: Connectivity across Ƶ’s ports is set to improve with the addition of two new shipping services, expanding the Kingdom’s maritime trade reach to 19 global destinations.

The Saudi Ports Authority, known as Mawani, announced the launch of the IM2 shipping service at Jeddah Islamic Port, operated by Emirates Line and Wan Hai — marking the 22nd service added since the start of 2025. 

With a handling capacity of 2,800 twenty-foot equivalent units, the service connects Jeddah to three major international ports — Mundra in India, Alexandria in Egypt, and Mersin in Turkiye.

The developments are part of Mawani’s ongoing efforts to enhance Ƶ’s ranking in global performance indicators, support national export flows in line with the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, and solidify the Kingdom’s role as a pivotal logistics gateway connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe.

In a statement, Mawani said: “This service will contribute to enhancing the competitiveness of Saudi ports, facilitating global trade, opening new business opportunities, and raising the operational efficiency of Jeddah Islamic Port.”

This follows the introduction of the “Chinook Clanga” service by Mediterranean Shipping Co. a day earlier at King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam and Jubail Commercial Port. The new route connects Ƶ’s eastern ports to 16 regional and global destinations.

The MSC service, initially announced in March, strengthens links between the Arabian Gulf and key ports such as Khalifa Bin Salman Port in Bahrain, Hamad Port in Qatar, Nhava Sheva in India, Colombo in Sri Lanka, and Singapore.

It also connects to Vung Tau and Haiphong in Vietnam; Nansha, Yantian, Ningbo, Shanghai, and Qingdao in China; and Busan in South Korea; as well as Seattle in the US; and Vancouver and Prince Rupert in Canada.

In line with Vision 2030, Ƶ is accelerating efforts to become one of the world’s top 10 logistics hubs, with the maritime sector playing a central role.

Under its National Transport and Logistics Strategy, the Kingdom also aims to raise the sector’s gross domestic product contribution from 6 to 10 percent by 2030.

In 2024, Saudi ports handled over 320 million tonnes of cargo — a 14.45 percent year-on-year increase — while container exports grew 8.86 percent to exceed 2.8 million TEUs, according to Mawani.

Mawani also launched several initiatives in 2024, including new logistics zones at Jeddah Islamic Port and King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, backed by SR2.9 billion ($773 million) in private investment. 

These are part of a broader SR10 billion plan to develop 18 logistics parks nationwide.


UAE to hit $1tn non-oil trade target 4 years early, says official

UAE to hit $1tn non-oil trade target 4 years early, says official
Updated 2 min 19 sec ago

UAE to hit $1tn non-oil trade target 4 years early, says official

UAE to hit $1tn non-oil trade target 4 years early, says official

RIYADH: The UAE is set to achieve its 4 trillion dirhams ($1.089 trillion) target for non-oil foreign trade within two years and ahead of the original 2031 goal, according to the country’s vice president.

In a post on X, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum highlighted the country’s rapid economic progress, stating that key indicators have surpassed global benchmarks.

This acceleration in trade is mirrored in other areas of the economy. The UAE reported a 4 percent growth in gross domestic product in 2024, with non-oil sectors contributing 75.5 percent of the overall output as diversification efforts gained momentum.

“Our non-oil foreign trade increased by 18.6 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year (global average 2-3 percent) — Its volume in the first quarter of this year amounted to 835 billion dirhams. Our non-oil exports grew exceptionally by 41 percent on an annual basis,” Al-Maktoum stated.

He continued: “Our goal is to achieve non-oil foreign trade for the UAE amounting to 4 trillion dirhams by 2031 ... We will reach it within two years ... (four years before the scheduled date).”

Al-Maktoum, who also serves as prime minister, noted that non-oil exports recorded an exceptional year-on-year growth of 41 percent, signaling the country’s strengthening role in international trade.

He further noted that the non-oil sector now contributes 75.5 percent to the national economy, highlighting the country’s successful diversification strategy.

“These are new development indicators for the UAE,” he said, reflecting on the resilience and dynamism of the country’s economy despite global challenges.

Al-Maktoum credited UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan for leading the country’s transformative economic journey, which he described as achieving “exceptional milestones in the history of the UAE.”

Other countries in the region are also advancing their trade and diversification agendas. 

Ƶ is expanding its non-oil exports, which surged to SR515 billion ($137 billion) in 2024, a 13 percent year-on-year increase and a 113 percent rise since the launch of Vision 2030 in 2016.

Bahrain’s non‑oil sectors are also gaining momentum under its long‑term diversification strategy. In the third quarter of 2024, the non‑oil economy grew by 3.9 percent, accounting for 86.4 percent of real gross domestic product, driving an overall economic expansion of 2.1 percent year on year.


GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 

GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 
Updated 16 June 2025

GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 

GCC growth forecast raised to 4.4% amid oil rebound, diversification push: ICAEW 

RIYADH: Gulf Cooperation Council economies are expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2025, up from an earlier forecast of 4 percent, as rising oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity offset global trade headwinds. 

In its latest economic update, prepared with Oxford Economics, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales said Ƶ and the UAE will lead regional growth despite weaker crude prices and rising geopolitical uncertainty. 

The revision comes amid stronger-than-expected gains in OPEC+ production and continued investment in infrastructure, tourism, and technology. In May, the International Monetary Fund said that the GCC region’s economy will grow by 3 percent in 2025, driven by gains in the non-oil sector. 

The analysis by ICAEW affirms the progress of the economic diversification efforts undertaken by GCC member states, including Ƶ and the UAE, aimed at strengthening their non-oil sectors and reducing reliance on crude revenues. 

Hanadi Khalife, head of Middle East at ICAEW, said: “The GCC economies are showing remarkable adaptability amid shifting global trade dynamics.” 

She added: “Investments in tourism, technology, and infrastructure continue to pay dividends, strengthening resilience and laying the groundwork for long-term growth.” 

The report noted Brent crude is expected to average $67.3 a barrel in 2025, increasing fiscal pressure across the bloc. Qatar and the UAE are likely to maintain budget surpluses, underscoring diverging fiscal positions within the region. 

Scott Livermore, economic adviser at ICAEW and chief economist and managing director at Oxford Economics Middle East, said the upgraded GCC economic growth forecast was due to faster OPEC+ output increases and sustained non-oil momentum in key economies like Ƶ and the UAE. 

“While uncertainty and trade shifts may place pressures on fiscal policy, the region’s two key economies are expected to continue to progress toward economic diversification and attract global capital at an accelerated pace,” added Livermore. 

The impact of the US 10 percent tariff on imports from GCC countries is expected to be limited, given the region’s low US export exposure and the exemption of energy products. 

Overall, non-oil sectors in the GCC are forecast to grow by 4.1 percent in 2025, supported by strong domestic demand, investment momentum, and diversification initiatives. 

ICAEW added that the region is also favorably positioned to absorb any trade rebalances resulting from tariff headwinds and geopolitical tensions. 

Ƶ outlook 

Ƶ’s economy is expected to witness growth of 5.2 percent in 2025, according to ICAEW. 

The non-oil sector in the Kingdom is projected to grow by 5.3 percent in 2025, while the oil economy is also forecast to expand by 5.2 percent this year. 

The report added that Ƶ’s oil production is averaging 9.7 million barrels per day, while non-oil sectors, including construction and trade, are contributing to the ongoing growth momentum. 

ICAEW further stated that Ƶ recorded an economic growth of 3.4 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by a 4.9 percent expansion in non-oil activities. 

“The rebasing of national accounts boosted the non-oil sector’s share of GDP, reinforcing the Kingdom’s diversification drive. However, weaker oil prices are expected to widen the fiscal deficit to 3.4 percent of the gross domestic product,” said ICAEW. 

In May, a separate report released by the General Authority for Statistics revealed that Ƶ’s economy expanded by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter, driven by strong non-oil activity. 

Commenting on the GDP figures at that time, Minister of Economy and Planning Faisal Al-Ibrahim, who also chairs GASTAT’s board, said the contribution of non-oil activities to the Kingdom’s GDP reached 53.2 percent — an increase of 5.7 percent from previous estimates. 

The minister added that Ƶ’s economic outlook remains positive, supported by structural reforms and high-quality, state-led projects across various sectors. 

The ICAEW report noted that despite potential risks, investor sentiment remains strong, with credit rating agency S&P Global upgrading the Kingdom’s credit rating to A+. 

In March, S&P Global said that Ƶ’s strong rating is driven by the economic and social transformation taking place in the Kingdom. 

In February, Fitch Ratings also affirmed Ƶ’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating at ‘A+’ with a stable outlook, citing the Kingdom’s strong fiscal and external balance sheets. 

UAE growth driven by investments 

The UAE economy is projected to expand by 5.1 percent in 2025, driven by a recovery in oil output and a 4.7 percent rise in non-oil GDP, according to ICAEW. 

“Tourism remains a key growth driver, with international visitor spending expected to contribute nearly 13 percent of GDP in 2025. In the first quarter, Dubai welcomed 5.3 million international visitors, up 3 percent year on year, consolidating its position as a leading tourism hub,” said the report. 

Strategic investments are also fueling momentum in the UAE, including a $1.4 trillion investment pipeline and new AI-focused collaborations following President Trump’s visit to the Emirates in May. 

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, president of the UAE, on the sidelines of Trump’s visit, said that this planned $1.4 trillion investment in the US over the next decade underscores a strong partnership with Washington. 

The UAE president added that investments would span critical sectors such as technology, artificial intelligence, and energy. 

“While rising tariffs are likely to suppress global inflation, a weaker US dollar may push up import prices in the UAE — particularly from non-dollar trade partners — offsetting some of the disinflationary effects,” concluded ICAEW. 

Earlier this month, the Central Bank of the UAE revealed that the Emirates’ GDP reached 1.77 billion dirhams ($481.4 million) in 2024, recording 4 percent growth, with non-oil sectors contributing 75.5 percent of the total. 

CBUAE added that the Emirates is expected to witness economic growth of 4.5 percent in 2025, before accelerating further to 5.5 percent in 2026. 


Oil Updates — prices rise further as Israel-Iran extends into 4th day

Oil Updates — prices rise further as Israel-Iran extends into 4th day
Updated 16 June 2025

Oil Updates — prices rise further as Israel-Iran extends into 4th day

Oil Updates — prices rise further as Israel-Iran extends into 4th day

HONG KONG: Oil prices extended gains Monday as Israel and Iran pounded each other with missiles for a fourth day and threatened further attacks, stoking fears of a lengthy conflict that could reignite inflation.

Gold prices also rose back toward a record high thanks to a rush into safe havens, but equities were mixed amid hopes that the conflict does not spread through the Middle East.

Investors were also gearing up for key central bank meetings this week, with a particular eye on the US Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, as well as talks with Washington aimed at avoiding Donald Trump’s sky-high tariffs.

Israel’s surprise strike against Iranian military and nuclear sites on Friday — killing top commanders and scientists — sent crude prices soaring as much as 13 percent at one point on fears about supplies from the region.

Analysts also warned that the spike could send inflation surging globally again, dealing a blow to long-running efforts by governments and central banks to get it under control and fanning concerns about the impact on already fragile economies.

“The knock-on impact of higher energy prices is that they will slow growth and cause headline inflation to rise,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG.

“While central banks would prefer to overlook a temporary spike in energy prices, if they remain elevated for a long period, it may feed through into higher core inflation as businesses pass on higher transport and production costs.

“This would hampercentral banks’ ability to cut interest rates to cushion the anticipated growth slowdown from President Trump’s tariffs, which adds another variable for the Fed to consider when it meets to discuss interest rates this week.”

Both main oil contracts were up around one percent in Asian trade.

But Morningstar director of equity research Allen Good said: “Oil markets remain amply supplied with OPEC set on increasing production and demand soft. US production growth has been slowing, but could rebound in the face of sustained higher prices.

“Meanwhile, a larger war is unlikely. The Trump administration has already stated it remains committed to talks with Iran.

“Ultimately, fundamentals will dictate price, and they do not suggest much higher prices are necessary. Although the global risk premium could rise, keeping prices moderately higher than where they’ve been much of the year.”

Tokyo closed 1.3 percent higher, boosted by a weaker yen, while Hong Kong reversed early losses and Shanghai, Seoul, Singapore and Wellington also advanced.

Taipei, Jakarta and Manila retreated while Sydney was flat.

London, Paris and Frankfurt were all higher in early trade.

Gold, a go-to asset in times of uncertainty and volatility, rose to around $3,450 an ounce and close to its all-time high of $3,500.

There was little major reaction to data showing China’s factory output grew slower than expected last month as trade war pressures bit, while retail sales topped forecasts.

Also in focus is the Group of Seven summit in the Canadian Rockies, which kicked off Sunday, where the Middle East crisis will be discussed along with trade in light of Trump’s tariff blitz.

Investors are also awaiting bank policy meetings, with the Fed and BoJ the standouts.

Both are expected to stand pat for now but traders will be keeping a close watch on their statements for an idea about the plans for interest rates, with US officials under pressure from Trump to cut.

The Fed meeting “will naturally get the greatest degree of market focus,” said Chris Weston at Pepperstone.

“The Fed should remain sufficiently constrained by the many uncertainties to offer anything truly market-moving and the statement should stress that policy is in a sound place for now,” he added.

In corporate news, Nippon Steel rose more than three percent after Trump on Friday signed an executive order approving its $14.9 billion merger with US Steel, bringing an end to the long-running saga.