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SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Monday after the US clinched a trade deal with the EU and may extend a tariff pause with China, relieving concerns that higher levies could have hurt economic activity and limited fuel demand.

Brent crude futures inched up 61 cents, or 0.89 percent, to $69.05 a barrel by 8:47 a.m. Saudi time, while US West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $65.75 a barrel, up 59 cents, or 0.91 percent.

The US-European Union trade deal and a possible extension in the US-China tariff pause are supporting global financial markets and oil prices, IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.

“With the risk of a prolonged trade war and the importance of the August tariff deadlines being steadily defused, markets have responded positively,” he added in a note.

Sunday’s US-EU framework trade pact sets an import tariff of 15 percent on most EU goods, half the threatened rate. The deal averted a bigger trade war between two allies that account for almost one-third of global trade and could crimp fuel demand.

Also set for Monday is a meeting in Stockholm of senior US and Chinese negotiators aiming to extend before an Aug. 12 deadline a truce holding off sharply higher tariffs.

Oil prices settled on Friday at their lowest in three weeks, weighed down by global trade concerns and expectations of more oil supply from Venezuela.

State-run oil company PDVSA is readying to resume work at its joint ventures under terms similar to Biden-era licenses, once US President Donald Trump reinstates authorizations for its partners to operate and export oil under swaps, company sources said.

Though prices were up slightly on Monday, gains were limited by the prospect of OPEC+ further easing supply curbs.

A market monitoring panel of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies is set to meet at 1200 GMT on Monday.

It is unlikely to recommend altering existing plans by eight members to raise oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in August, four OPEC+ delegates said last week, though another source said it was too early to say.

ING expects OPEC+ will at least complete the full return of 2.2 million barrels per day of the additional voluntary supply cuts by the end of September.

That would work out to a supply hike in September of at least 280,000 barrels per day. However, there is clearly room for a more aggressive hike.

The producer group is keen to recover market share while summer demand is helping to absorb the extra barrels.

JP Morgan analysts said global oil demand rose by 600,000 bpd in July on year, while global oil stocks rose 1.6 million bpd.

In the Middle East, Yemen’s Houthis said on Sunday they would target ships of companies that do business with Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, in what they called a fourth phase of military operations against Israel over the Gaza conflict.

RIYADH: The Gulf Cooperation Council’s economy grew 1.5 percent year on year in the fourth quarter of 2024, reaching $587.8 billion, driven by a surge in non-oil activity, official data showed. 

According to the GCC Statistical Center, the increase from $579 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 highlights the region’s ongoing shift toward diversification, with non-oil sectors contributing 77.9 percent of total output, while oil accounted for 22.1 percent. 

Among non-oil sectors, manufacturing contributed 12.5 percent, wholesale and retail trade 9.9 percent, construction 8.3 percent, and public administration and defense 7.5 percent. Finance and insurance made up 7 percent, real estate 5.7 percent, and other activities a combined 27 percent. 

The region’s economic shift is driven by national reform plans, including ������Ƶ’s Vision 2030, the UAE’s Economic Vision 2030, Oman’s Vision 2040, and Qatar’s National Vision 2030, aimed at reducing reliance on oil by expanding sectors like tourism, logistics, finance, and technology, and boosting private sector and foreign investment. 

The statistical center said: “This report on the quarterly GDP estimates in the GCC countries is issued based on the data made available by the member states, with a reference of May 2025.” 

At the real GDP level, the GCC economy grew 2.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, with non-oil GDP expanding by 3.7 percent, while oil GDP contracted by 0.9 percent, reflecting voluntary OPEC+ production cuts. 

Among member states, Qatar recorded the highest real GDP growth at 4.5 percent, followed by the UAE at 3.6 percent and ������Ƶ at 2.8 percent, the report showed. 

The region also maintained stable price levels, with overall inflation averaging 2.1 percent across the bloc during the quarter. Qatar and Oman registered the lowest inflation rates at 1.1 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, while Bahrain recorded the highest at 3.3 percent. 

In its latest update, the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, in collaboration with Oxford Economics, raised its 2025 GCC growth forecast to 4.4 percent, up from a prior estimate of 4 percent, citing stronger oil output and resilient non-oil sector activity. 

The International Monetary Fund projects the GCC economy to expand by 3 percent in 2025, led by ������Ƶ and the UAE, and supported by sustained infrastructure investment and policy reforms.