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OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.38m bpd in 2026

OPEC’s report said it now expects US output of tight oil, another term for shale, to decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026. File
OPEC’s report said it now expects US output of tight oil, another term for shale, to decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026. File
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Updated 14 sec ago

OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.38m bpd in 2026

OPEC projects global oil demand to rise by 1.38m bpd in 2026
  • Supply growth from producers outside OPEC+ is trimmed, signaling a tighter market outlook

LONDON: OPEC on Tuesday raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and trimmed its forecast for growth in supply from the US and other producers outside the wider OPEC+ group, pointing to a tighter market outlook.

The outlook for higher demand and a drop in supply growth from outside OPEC+ would make it easier for OPEC+ to proceed with its plan to pump more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts aimed at supporting the market.

World oil demand will rise by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report, up 100,000 bpd from the previous forecast. This year’s expectation was left unchanged.

In the report, OPEC also increased its forecast for world economic growth slightly this year to 3 percent as President Donald Trump’s administration signs some trade deals and the economies of India, China and Brazil outperform expectations.

“Economic data at the start of the second half of 2025 further confirm the resilience of global growth, despite persistent uncertainties related to US-centered trade tensions and broader geopolitical risks,” OPEC said in the report.

Oil supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation — the formal name for OPEC+ — will rise by about 630,000 bpd in 2026, OPEC said, down from last month’s forecast of 730,000 bpd.

OPEC's report said it now expects US output of tight oil, another term for shale, to decline by 100,000 bpd in 2026, versus last month’s outlook for flat output year on year.

“The 2026 forecast assumes sustained capital discipline, additional drilling and completion efficiency gains, weaker momentum in drilling activities and increased associated gas production in key shale oil regions,” OPEC said.

OPEC’s report also showed that in July, OPEC+ raised crude output by 335,000 bpd, a further increase reflecting its decisions this year to increase output quotas.


Cost excellence key to unlock potential of Ƶ’s mining sector: Alvarez and Marsal

Cost excellence key to unlock potential of Ƶ’s mining sector: Alvarez and Marsal
Updated 18 sec ago

Cost excellence key to unlock potential of Ƶ’s mining sector: Alvarez and Marsal

Cost excellence key to unlock potential of Ƶ’s mining sector: Alvarez and Marsal
  • Kingdom’s mining and minerals industry is poised for sustainable long-term growth
  • It has already laid strong foundations in the sector

RIYADH: Mining firms operating in Ƶ should implement disciplined financial planning, transparency, and cost ownership in their operating model to reap long-term benefits, according to an analysis. 

In its latest report, professional services firm Alvarez and Marsal said the Kingdom’s mining and minerals industry is poised for sustainable long-term growth with committed investments worth SR246 billion ($65.55 billion) supporting the sector. 

The study was released just days after the Kingdom’s ranking on the Mining Investment Attractiveness Index jumped from 104th in 2013 to 23rd in 2024, cementing the nation’s status as the world’s fastest-rising power in the exploration industry, according to Canadian public policy think tank Fraser Institute.

As a part of its economic diversification efforts, Ƶ is accelerating the development of its mining sector, with the Kingdom’s mineral wealth now estimated at SR9.4 trillion ($2.5 trillion).

Commenting on the latest report, Alexander Shvets, managing director, infrastructure and capital projects – metals and mining at Alvarez and Marsal Middle East, said: “Ƶ’s mining sector is now central to the Kingdom’s economic transformation.” 

He added: “Building on this momentum with embedded cost visibility and performance tracking will help operators to achieve global competitiveness and long-term value creation.” 

According to Alvarez and Marsal, adopting structured financial frameworks can help mining companies seize emerging opportunities and ensure operational excellence as the sector matures. 

“Control is not just a finance function — it’s an operational discipline. In mining, where complexity and capital intensity are high, real-time cost visibility and team capability are what turn strategy into measurable results,” said Renat Akimbitov, managing director, infrastructure and capital projects – metals and mining at Alvarez and Marsal Middle East. 

The report said Ƶ has already laid strong foundations in the sector, with the establishment of institutions such as the Saudi Geological Survey, creating a dynamic and investor-friendly environment.

In March, the Kingdom also launched a new incentive package to attract foreign direct investments into the nation’s mining sector. 

At that time, the Saudi Press Agency reported that the Kingdom’s Ministry of Investment is collaborating closely with the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources through an exploration enablement program aimed at simplifying investments in the mineral exploration industry. 

Alvarez and Marsal outlined a strategy for mining and industrial companies to strengthen financial resilience by implementing activity-based budgeting, which links finance directly to operational drivers for greater accuracy and agility.

The report also underscored the vitality of empowering business leaders with digital dashboards to manage costs dynamically, as well as conducting structured cost review meetings to ensure accountability through regular performance tracking. 

Alvarez and Marsal further highlighted the importance of cost-capability building and said that equipping teams with practical tools and training is essential to foster a cost-conscious culture within the organization. 


Ƶ’s mining sector jumps to 23rd globally in Fraser Institute index  

Ƶ’s mining sector jumps to 23rd globally in Fraser Institute index  
Updated 22 min 6 sec ago

Ƶ’s mining sector jumps to 23rd globally in Fraser Institute index  

Ƶ’s mining sector jumps to 23rd globally in Fraser Institute index  

RIYADH: Ƶ’s mining sector has leapt 81 places over the past decade to rank 23rd globally in the Fraser Institute’s Investment Attractiveness Index, underscoring the Kingdom’s rapid emergence as a global mining contender. 
The rise from 104th place in 2013 marks one of the steepest climbs recorded by the Canadian think tank and puts Ƶ ahead of several established mining destinations in Asia and Latin America.  
The Fraser Institute credited the surge to sweeping regulatory reforms, strategic investment, and accelerated exploration activity.
These improvements reflect investor confidence in a stable regulatory environment and the vast untapped mineral wealth supported by large-scale geological surveys, new discoveries, and competitive mining licensing rounds. The rise aligns with the rapid growth of Ƶ’s mining industry, a key pillar of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 diversification strategy.   
Commenting on the Fraser Institute’s 2024 report, Vice Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources for Mining Affairs Khalid Al-Mudaifer said: “It reflects the structural transformation of the Saudi mining sector in line with the targets of Vision 2030.” 
He added: “Our focus remains on maximizing the economic value of our mineral resources, creating jobs for citizens, and localizing supply chains.”  
The vice minister said mining is no longer a traditional sector; rather, “it has become a key driver of industrial and economic growth, and we are committed to building on this momentum to ensure sustainable success.” 
The Kingdom also ranked 20th globally in the Policy Perception Index, up from 82nd a decade ago, and 24th in the Best Practices Mineral Potential Index, rising from 58th. 
This comes as Ƶ issued a record number of new mining exploration licenses in the first half of 2025, registering a 144 percent increase year on year, official data showed.   
The Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources reported that 22 licenses were granted during the period, up from nine in the same period a year earlier, underscoring rising investor interest and the government’s drive to build a more competitive and attractive mining sector.  
Commenting on Ƶ’s significant jump in the rankings, Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources Bandar Alkhorayef described the progress as “unprecedented positive results that align with the Kingdom’s rise as a global mining power, reflecting the impact of reforms to enhance competitiveness in the mining investment environment, which have increased global investor confidence.”   
“We are proud of this progress and will continue to develop the mining sector to maximize its role in diversifying our economy in line with Vision 2030 targets,” he added. 


The Fraser Institute highlighted the Kingdom’s broad regulatory transformation, covering areas such as security of tenure, taxation, environmental legislation, infrastructure, and community engagement, which enabled Ƶ to rank in the top quartile of the index for the first time.  
The report also noted investors had no concerns regarding political stability — one of the Kingdom’s key strengths — and commended the Mining Exploration Enablement Program for reducing investment risks and boosting early-stage project confidence.  
Data from the report showed marked improvements between 2013 and 2024, including a 305.8 percent increase in the clarity and effectiveness of mining administration, from 17 percent to 69 percent, ranking 11th globally.   
The clarity of land use for mining activities rose by 82.2 percent, from 45 percent to 82 percent, placing the Kingdom 7th globally.  
The effectiveness of labor regulations improved by 102.2 percent, from 45 percent to 91 percent, while the quality of geological databases saw an 81.8 percent increase, from 33 percent to 60 percent.    
The Fraser Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies is considered one of the most trusted global benchmarks for evaluating mining investment environments and is widely used by investors, governments, and financial institutions to assess opportunities in the sector.


Dar Global boosts GDV by 67% to $12.5bn with Saudi expansion, entry into financial services

Dar Global boosts GDV by 67% to $12.5bn with Saudi expansion, entry into financial services
Updated 57 min 15 sec ago

Dar Global boosts GDV by 67% to $12.5bn with Saudi expansion, entry into financial services

Dar Global boosts GDV by 67% to $12.5bn with Saudi expansion, entry into financial services

RIYADH: The London-listed luxury real estate developer, Dar Global, has increased its gross development value by 67 percent to $12.5 billion, driven by new large-scale projects in Ƶ and a move into financial services.

Dar Global, majority-owned by Saudi developer Dar Al-Arkan and listed on the London Stock Exchange, announced it secured a joint development agreement with its parent company and completed major land acquisitions for projects in Riyadh and Jeddah, significantly expanding its footprint in the Kingdom.

In Riyadh, the company acquired part of a major integrated scheme worth $2.8 billion, anchored by a $300 million land purchase, replacing a previously announced deal in March. The decision aimed to deliver greater scale, higher profitability, and lower development risk.

In Jeddah, the firm signed another joint development agreement for a landmark mixed-use project on one of the city’s most prominent sites, with an estimated GDV of $1.95 billion.

Both projects will feature luxury villas, a world-class golf course, and a high-end hotel, tapping into Ƶ’s rapid economic transformation and growing demand for premium real estate.

“These milestones mark an important inflection point for Dar Global. In Ƶ, we are delivering landmark projects in prime locations and looking to bring in more overseas investment as the Kingdom opens up,” Ziad El-Chaar, CEO of Dar Global, said.

“The enhanced financing facility reinforces our balance sheet to fuel growth at scale, and the establishment of a financial services arm in DIFC (Dubai International Financial Center) enhances our ability to structure capital and unlock global opportunities,” he added.

To accelerate these developments, Dar Global expanded its Litmus financing facility from $275 million to $440 million, adding $165 million in liquidity.

The facility, underwritten by Emirates National Bank of Dubai and supported by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and Zand Bank, is secured through pledged shares and corporate guarantees.

The additional funds will strengthen the company’s balance sheet, speed up project delivery, and support expansion across the Middle East, Europe, and North America.

Dar Global acquired a licensed financial services platform in the Dubai International Financial Center, authorized to provide asset management, investment banking, and advisory services.

Operating as an independent subsidiary, the platform will enable the company to attract institutional and private capital into larger-scale projects and create investment vehicles to channel funds from the GCC and beyond.

Dar Global has positioned itself as a bridge between high-growth markets and international investors, leveraging partnerships with landowners, government bodies, and brands to deliver real estate offerings to global clients.


Ƶ’s money supply hits $832bn as time deposits reach 16-year high  

Ƶ’s money supply hits $832bn as time deposits reach 16-year high  
Updated 12 August 2025

Ƶ’s money supply hits $832bn as time deposits reach 16-year high  

Ƶ’s money supply hits $832bn as time deposits reach 16-year high  

RIYADH: Ƶ’s money supply rose to a record SR3.12 trillion ($832 billion) in June, marking a 7.63 percent annual increase, driven predominantly by a sharp rise in time and savings deposits. 

According to data from the Saudi Central Bank, also known as SAMA, these income-generating accounts, now totaling around SR1.1 trillion, represent the highest share of the money supply in 16 years. 

While demand deposits — non-interest-bearing checking accounts — remain the largest component at 47.93 percent, or SR1.49 trillion, their growth at 5.2 percent year on year has lagged that of savings accounts, which grew 21.71 percent over the same period. 

Other quasi-monetary instruments, including residents’ foreign currency deposits, marginal deposits related to letters of credit, outstanding remittances, and repo placements, account for roughly 9 percent of the money supply. 

However, this category declined 18.54 percent, dropping to SR280.54 billion. Meanwhile, currency outside banks, although the smallest component at 7.83 percent, increased 6.6 percent to SR244.31 billion. 

Why are time deposits surging? 

Global monetary tightening and attractive yields are key factors. After previously peaking at 6 percent, SAMA reduced its repo rate in stages, mirroring that of the US Federal Reserve — first to 5.5 percent in September 2024, then further to 5 percent in December 2024. 

Despite these cuts, the current rate remains relatively elevated compared to the prolonged low-rate environment of previous years, making fixed-term, interest-bearing accounts more attractive than demand balances. 

Strong lending growth, particularly in sectors tied to Vision 2030, mortgage financing, and corporate borrowing, has outstripped deposit inflows. As a result, banks face increased funding needs and have ramped up offerings on time deposits to attract liquidity. 

The 2025 International Monetary Fund Article IV Mission noted that while banks maintain strong solvency at 19.6 percent and a healthy return on assets, liquidity pressures are building, and liquid assets relative to short-term liabilities have declined. 

In response, banks are expanding liabilities through bonds, syndicated loans, and certificates of deposit. Notably, net foreign assets turned negative in 2024 for the first time since 1993, highlighting rising external borrowing. 

To address risks, SAMA introduced a 100-basis-point countercyclical capital buffer in May 2025, and the IMF welcomed this step, along with tighter loan-to-value and debt burden measures, plus potential foreign-currency liquidity ratios to bolster financial stability. 

Market analysts foresee continued strength in time and savings deposits. Alvarez & Marsal’s first quarter Banking Pulse reported that deposits rebounded 4 percent quarter on quarter, led by an 8.1 percent increase in time deposits, following a seasonal dip at the end of 2024. 

Likewise, Fitch Ratings, in its March 2025 forecast, projected lending growth of 12–14 percent, led by corporate demand, to continue outpacing deposit growth. 

Fitch expects Saudi banks to issue more than $20 billion in debt this year as they shift toward non-deposit funding. This, coupled with the continued dilution of CASA “current and savings accounts” and competition for funding, may blunt the benefits of lower policy rates on banks’ net interest margins. 


Bahrain’s economy grows 2.7% in Q1 2025 as non-oil sector, FDI show strength

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.7% in Q1 2025 as non-oil sector, FDI show strength
Updated 12 August 2025

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.7% in Q1 2025 as non-oil sector, FDI show strength

Bahrain’s economy grows 2.7% in Q1 2025 as non-oil sector, FDI show strength

RIYADH: Bahrain’s real gross domestic product grew by 2.7 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2025, supported by a 2.2 percent increase in non-oil activities, according to official data.

The Ministry of Finance and National Economy revealed in its quarterly report for the first quarter of 2025, steady economic expansion was driven by robust non-oil sector performance and rising foreign investment.

Preliminary data from the Information and eGovernment Authority also showed a 5.3 percent rise in the oil sector. In nominal terms, GDP expanded by 3 percent, with non-oil and oil sectors growing by 2.8 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. The non-oil division remained the dominant force, contributing 84.8 percent to real GDP.

Bahrain’s economic growth aligns with that of its Gulf Cooperation Council neighbors. In the first quarter, Ƶ’s economy grew by 3.4 percent year on year, driven by strong non-oil sector performance. This trend reflects the World Bank’s June projections, which forecast GCC-wide growth to reach 3.2 percent in 2025 and accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2026, following a modest 1.8 percent expansion in 2024.

“Bahrain has continued to make notable progress across several international economic and development benchmarks, reflecting the kingdom’s commitment to economic diversification, global standards, and enhancing its business environment through the adoption and implementation of a number of ambitious strategies and initiatives,” the ministry said in a press release.

The fastest-growing sector was accommodation and food services, which surged by 10.3 percent year on year, followed by financial and insurance activities, the largest GDP contributor, which grew by 7.5 percent. 

Other key sectors also saw positive growth, including construction at 5.4 percent, education at 2.5 percent, and professional and technical services at 2.2 percent. Meanwhile, wholesale and retail trade and real estate grew by 2 percent each, while manufacturing experienced a slight decline of 0.4 percent. 

Foreign direct investment stock also increased, rising by 3.5 percent year-on-year to reach 17.1 billion Bahraini dinars ($45.3 billion), signaling continued international confidence in Bahrain’s economy.

On the consumer price index, the report added: “The headline CPI remained relatively stable, recording a YoY increase of only 0.1 percent during the first quarter of 2025. The relative price stability reflects the government of Bahrain’s proactive efforts to mitigate global supply chain disruptions.”

The Central Bank of Bahrain recorded a 19.2 percent year-on-year growth in the monetary base, reaching 6.1 billion dinars, up from 5.1 billion dinars in the same quarter in 2024.

“This increase coincided with lower interest rates, which encouraged borrowing and investment, thereby supporting economic activity,” the report said.