ÂÜÀòÊÓƵ

The ruling junta in Myanmar has announced that the country will hold its first general election since the 2021 coup starting in December 2025. At first glance, this might sound like a step toward normalcy and democracy. But in reality it is nothing of the sort. The generals who seized power four years ago are trying to dress up their rule with a thin democratic veneer. This election will not be free or fair. Instead, it will be a carefully managed spectacle designed to give the junta a sense of legitimacy both at home and abroad, while denying the people of Myanmar any real voice.

The context is stark. Myanmar is still engulfed in civil war. Ethnic armed organizations control vast swathes of territory in Kachin, Shan and Rakhine states. The Arakan Army, the Kachin Independence Army and many others have expanded their hold since the coup. These groups have already declared that they will not allow voting in their areas. Even in zones under military control, widespread resistance continues. For the average citizen, daily life is shaped not by politics but by hunger, displacement and insecurity. To stage an election in the midst of this chaos is to invite further fragmentation and deepen mistrust.

What makes this election even more hollow is the systematic exclusion of the National League for Democracy, the party of Aung San Suu Kyi, which won a landslide in the last free vote in 2020. The junta has dissolved the party, imprisoned its leaders and silenced its supporters. In its place, the generals have fostered proxy parties loyal to them. The outcome of the 2025 vote is therefore already preordained. Without the National League for Democracy, there is no true contest and no genuine democratic mandate.

This is not the first time the Myanmar military has tried to cloak its dominance in an electoral process. Over decades, the Tatmadaw, as the army is known, has perfected the art of controlled democracy. In 2010, it held an election that excluded Suu Kyi and her party. Only in 2015 did the generals allow a somewhat open vote, which resulted in a humiliating defeat for their proxy party. They have no intention of repeating that mistake. The upcoming election will be a return to the 2010 model: a charade of ballots and polling stations without the essence of choice.

Why, then, does the junta insist on holding this election? Partly it is about international image. The generals know that countries in the region, including some in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, prefer to deal with a government that at least pays lip service to democracy. By staging a managed vote, the junta hopes to persuade its neighbors to normalize ties, attract investment and ease diplomatic pressure.

Another reason is to shore up domestic legitimacy. Even dictators understand the symbolic power of elections. By claiming a mandate from the ballot box, however contrived, the generals seek to undercut the narrative that they are illegitimate usurpers.

To stage an election in the midst of this chaos is to invite further fragmentation and deepen mistrust.

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

But the international community must not be fooled. This election will not resolve Myanmar’s crisis. On the contrary, it risks entrenching military rule and prolonging conflict. The danger is that outside powers, weary of the stalemate, may seize on the election as an excuse to re-engage with the junta. That would be a profound mistake. Recognition of a sham vote would betray the millions who have risked everything in the past four years to resist military dictatorship.

So, what should be done? First, ASEAN must resist the temptation to endorse this electoral exercise. As the regional bloc most directly affected by Myanmar’s collapse, ASEAN has both the responsibility and the leverage to insist that any credible election can only take place after the end of hostilities and the release of political prisoners.

Second, the wider international community should refuse to send observers or recognize the outcome. Legitimacy must not be conferred on the junta through participation in its charade.

Third, more support should be directed to Myanmar’s civil society, the national unity government in exile and ethnic organizations that are seeking a federal democratic future. These are the true representatives of the Myanmar people, not the generals in Naypyitaw.

There is also a humanitarian imperative. Millions of people inside Myanmar are facing displacement, starvation and the collapse of healthcare. Elections under such conditions are meaningless. What the population needs is food, medicine and security, not ballot boxes controlled by the military. International aid must be ramped up and delivered cross-border if necessary. Allowing the junta to use aid as leverage is to perpetuate collective punishment.

The generals believe time is on their side. They calculate that the world will eventually tire of Myanmar’s plight and accept any semblance of order, however illegitimate. It is, therefore, vital that we do not allow a fraudulent election to become that excuse. The international community has been burned before when it accepted managed elections in authoritarian contexts. The result is always the same: more repression, more conflict and greater suffering for ordinary people.

The people of Myanmar deserve better. They deserve a genuine chance to choose their leaders, free from coercion and violence. Until that day comes, any talk of elections is a cruel joke. The world must stand firm in rejecting the junta’s attempt to masquerade dictatorship as democracy.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim