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Why a Lebanon-Israel deal is unlikely

Why a Lebanon-Israel deal is unlikely

Why a Lebanon-Israel deal is unlikely
Joseph Aoun meets with U.S. Ambassador to Turkey and Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, Beirut, July 7, 2025. (AP Photo)
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After last week’s Sharm El-Sheikh summit on the Gaza ceasefire deal, US Ambassador to Turkiye and Special Envoy to Syria Tom Barrack, who is also handling Lebanon, said that the only pieces missing from the peace puzzle are now Lebanon and Syria. He hinted at a possible peace or normalization deal between Lebanon and Israel. However, such a deal is unlikely for many reasons.

Despite the American hype over the Abraham Accords, the issue of normalization is controversial and creates internal division. An April poll conducted by An-Nahar, the leading Lebanese newspaper, and Information International found that 75 percent of Lebanese consider Israel to be the country’s primary enemy. However, despite this overwhelmingly negative view of Israel, views on normalization differ.

Christians appear to be the community most open to the idea of normalization. Joe Eissa Khoury, the minister of industry who was named by the Lebanese Forces in the Nawaf Salam government, said that the region is heading toward peace. He was viewed as making an overture for normalization when he said that the Lebanese “should be ready.”

Similarly, Marcel Ghanem, a host on the MTV news channel, which reflects the right-wing Christian factions, alluded during one of his talk shows that it was time for Lebanon to jump on the normalization bandwagon. He said that talking about peace with Israel was a necessity and no longer a point of view. To start with, the Christian parties have less affinity with the Palestinians than other factions in Lebanon due to their bloody history with the Palestine Liberation Organization during the civil war.

Normalization is also viewed as a way to render Hezbollah redundant, as the group’s raison d’etre is resistance against Israel.

The Sunni faction, on the other hand, has a greater affinity with Palestine, especially given the ongoing genocide. They see normalization as treasonous to the cause of Palestine.

The group that is vehemently against normalization is the Shiite faction. It is still represented by Hezbollah and its partner Amal. The Shiites are the ones most affected by Israeli aggression. The strikes Israel is conducting on Hezbollah locations are viewed as an attack on the community. Normalization is viewed as a conspiracy to dispossess them.

Israel has kept five outposts in the south of Lebanon and is not allowing civilians to go back to their homes. The Israeli outposts, especially the one in Mount Hermon, also offer strategic support for its presence in Syria. Hence, the Israeli presence in Lebanon is not only linked to the issue of disarming Hezbollah but also to Syria, which complicates the prospect of any withdrawal. Israel is actually increasing its footprint in Lebanon along with its aggression.

Israel has recently been conducting violent raids in the south of the country. These have targeted civilian facilities and heavy machinery such as bulldozers. The message is clear: Israel does not want any reconstruction in southern Lebanon. It wants to keep it as no man’s land.

Barrack has warned that if the Lebanese state does not disarm Hezbollah, Israel will act unilaterally, threatening a possible war. He added that this is an opportunity for Lebanon’s renewal. But the Lebanese state cannot conduct any serious effort to disarm Hezbollah, while it also does not have any leverage to push Israel to withdraw.

The Lebanese state is just trying to walk between landmines. It is trying to please the US and not upset Hezbollah. It fears that any clash with the latter would break the army, which was the cause of the civil war. Hence, Beirut is in a tough situation. It is weak domestically, as well as when facing Israel. It is taking a back seat while Israel is bombing suspected arms depots and conducting assassinations of Hezbollah operatives.

Unlike Syria, which is doing well internationally largely due to the support of Turkiye and Ƶ, Lebanon does not look to be on any regional power’s priority list. The government is in a wait-and-see mode. It is waiting on the regional arrangements and trying to fit in. So far, it has no agency. Even the foreign minister said at a seminar that Lebanon has no leverage to give it diplomatic muscle — the most it can do is to go to the Americans and lament and cry. His statement highlights the Lebanese state’s weakness and impotence.

The Lebanese state is just trying to walk between landmines. It is trying to please the US and not upset Hezbollah.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun last week said that Lebanon and Israel need to conduct negotiations over the contentious issues between them. However, the government has no leverage if it wants to conduct such negotiations with Israel. It is unable to pressure Hezbollah to disarm. It is also unable to offer the group any guarantees that would entice it to disarm. It does not have any leverage or support to ask for guarantees from Israel.

Any peace today would be nothing short of the total subjugation of Lebanon by Israel. Barrack claimed that Lebanon refused an American offer that included disarming Hezbollah due to the group’s influence inside the government. Supposedly, Hezbollah would become a purely political party as a result of this deal. Barrack did not specify what the guarantees offered to Lebanon were in this deal. That is probably because there were none.

Lebanon is all alone. It has no backers if it wants to negotiate with Israel. The Lebanese state is not in a position to disarm Hezbollah and the public is very divided on the issue of normalization. Hence, any talk of peace or normalization is a nonstarter.

  • Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
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